1. 04-04-11 06:25 PM #1
    t-wizzle
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    Take the Thunder Tuesday Night in Denver

    Nuggets coming off the huge win in LA Sunday will come back to reality. I know it's hard to go against the Nugs right now considering how well they have been playing and how good they are at home but I think this is a statement game for Oklahoma City. Thunder are coming off back to back losses and will be ready to play Tuesday night. Also, it's looking very likely that these two will match up in the first round so I'm going with the angle that the Thunder will be out to prove that they can beat Denver in their own arena. Should be a good game but I'm taking the points and maybe the ML too.
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  2. 04-04-11 06:53 PM #2
    forzuto13
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    Yeah, I see this game potentially being a close one. Three days rest will be good for the Thunder. For me it's a hard one to pick though. I'd lean Denver. They might want to make the same statement to the road team. I actually prefer the under in this match-up.
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  3. 04-04-11 06:54 PM #3
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by forzuto13 View Post
    Yeah, I see this game potentially being a close one. Three days rest will be good for the Thunder. For me it's a hard one to pick though. I'd lean Denver. They might want to make the same statement to the road team. I actually prefer the under in this match-up.
    The added rest should neutralize the disadvantage of playing in the altitude.
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  4. 04-04-11 07:23 PM #4
    Vulcan300
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    thunder can't be trusted at this point.
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  5. 04-04-11 07:33 PM #5
    suicidekings
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    With another game between them 3 days later in OKC, I think the Nuggets motivation to defend home court will outweigh the Thunder attempting to make a statement. If the Nuggets win tomorrow, I will likely be backing the Thunder on Friday. For Friday's game the Nuggets will be in the tough spot (4th game in 6 and the first of a B2B). Basically I think defending homecourt will be how these games and the potential playoff series will be defined.
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  6. 04-04-11 07:48 PM #6
    SportsPedagogy
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    I was in Denver when the rallied back to beat the Spurs. There is a reason they play so well at home and thats because the Pepsi center is always rocking. even down 15, the fans were still going nuts and the arena was doing things to get them pumped during every time out.
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  7. 04-04-11 08:01 PM #7
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsPedagogy View Post
    I was in Denver when the rallied back to beat the Spurs. There is a reason they play so well at home and thats because the Pepsi center is always rocking. even down 15, the fans were still going nuts and the arena was doing things to get them pumped during every time out.
    The Nuggets have the largest home court advantage in the NBA in terms of average margin of victory. The Thunder's HCA ranks 4th.
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  8. 04-04-11 08:09 PM #8
    kiefynugs
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    lol back to back loss thunder are going to come out of it at the pepsi center? unlikely
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  9. 04-04-11 08:17 PM #9
    crfandl
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    thunder
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  10. 04-04-11 09:45 PM #10
    kobstopa
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    this could be the 1st round preview match, so it's a little more than a statement game. Both team will have enough time to prepare for it, Denver have more depth at guards, some time they run 2 points at the same time .... Denver has a better edge + play at home. Given the amount of preparation, we should see more effort on a physical and defensive match up this would mean a low scoring; low FG % by both teams.

    Denver's front-line will get offensive production from Nene, I cant say the same with OKC's
    Low scoring is probably best..
    Last edited by kobstopa; 04-04-11 at 09:48 PM.
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  11. 04-04-11 11:09 PM #11
    blackbox
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    Nice comments gentlemen- I am going to pass and see if I can see any advantage come playoff time.
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  12. 04-04-11 11:24 PM #12
    CMNoney
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    I couldn't disagree more. Nuggets are the easy play here. The Thunder have been absolute trash on the road lately and the Nuggets have a lot to play for. They can still get home court for the first round against the Thunder. They'll be highly motivated and ready.
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  13. 04-04-11 11:27 PM #13
    Thunderman
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    Hoping for a good performance from my boys tomorrow...I would stay away from betting OKC in this one-wait for the result and use it to bet the rematch coming in a few days in OKC. I can't feel comfortable going against the Nuggs in Denver
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  14. 04-04-11 11:32 PM #14
    demens
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    Wow, talk about a what have you done for me lately attitude. Thunder can't be trusted? Thunder has been trash on the road lately? Are you serious? Because they lost 2 games? What about the 11-1 run they were on prior to those 2 games. Which included 4 straight on the road (Miami and Philly). So they lost to the Blazers at the Rose Garden, a team that won 8 straight home games and now they suck because of that? Or is it cause they had a let down in the 2H and blew a big lead in LA vs the Clippers. Give me a break. "Lately" the Thunder is playing some of the best basketball in the NBA as are the Nuggets.

    Anyway,

    This game seems to be getting the most action so far. Very surprising imo since i see it as such a 50/50 play. The Sharpies seem to be split too, at 1st they drove the opener down to 3.5, now they bumped it to 4.5. Someone is gonna lose big moneyS on this one.
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  15. 04-04-11 11:47 PM #15
    t-wizzle
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    I watched most of the Denver-LA game yesterday and even though the Nugs won, i really wasn't impressed. Lakers were due for a bad game after the run they've been on and it happened.

    Also, I'm not really buying into the whole idea that all you need to do is bet Denver tonight and then OKC on Friday night. It's not that easy.
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  16. 04-04-11 11:51 PM #16
    Deep_Rest
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    I wouldn't touch this. Just consider this game "research" and scout both of the teams without putting money on it...since it is a likely playoff matchup.
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  17. 04-05-11 12:02 AM #17
    ShogunRua
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    It's Denver or no play IMO. Denver has won 10 in a row at home. Only wins by less than 4 were to SA and Dallas. The statement theory for OKC has no relevance here. Both teams will play 100% to win the game.
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  18. 04-05-11 12:24 AM #18
    Cinquefoil
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    Definitely Denver, they're the better team and they're at home... I think it should be more like DEN -6.
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  19. 04-05-11 01:18 AM #19
    craigpb
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    There's a reason the Thunder have lost recently. There defense is about as good as Phoenix. Can't stop anyone and only shoot jumpshots. Won't even get out of the 1st round.
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  20. 04-05-11 02:12 AM #20
    Avenger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderman View Post
    Hoping for a good performance from my boys tomorrow...I would stay away from betting OKC in this one-wait for the result and use it to bet the rematch coming in a few days in OKC. I can't feel comfortable going against the Nuggs in Denver

    This.
    Too many unknowns, this will be a GREAT game to gauge what will happen during playoffs.

    Not completely on the Nuggets bandwagon yet. Leaning towards Thunder, who I think are an awesome right now. Awesome D, awesome shooters, awesome perimeter shooters, awesome FT shooters, awesome PG. Only thing needs improvement is bench. which Nuggets have more than enough of.
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  21. 04-05-11 02:14 AM #21
    politicin
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    i see denver continuing to prove themselves
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  22. 04-05-11 02:17 AM #22
    asdfghasdfgh
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    How anyone could bet against the Nuggets at this point is beyond me.
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  23. 04-05-11 02:17 AM #23
    Avenger
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    Quote Originally Posted by craigpb View Post
    There's a reason the Thunder have lost recently. There defense is about as good as Phoenix. Can't stop anyone and only shoot jumpshots. Won't even get out of the 1st round.
    I respectfully disagree. Thunder's new and improved D is da shizzle right now.

    Ibaka is on fire. Perkins is a huge presense in the paint and getting rebounds.

    Why would you compare them to PHO? Just curious...
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  24. 04-05-11 02:30 AM #24
    politicin
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    I think the real question here is: Do you feel comfortable taking Denver @ -4?

    Will they cover this?
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  25. 04-05-11 08:35 AM #25
    SportsPedagogy
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    -4 isnt to big of a deal. I believe the average margin of victory in the NBA is about 7 points. a close game can cover by 4 based on final second free throws alone.
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  26. 04-05-11 10:27 AM #26
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by SportsPedagogy View Post
    -4 isnt to big of a deal. I believe the average margin of victory in the NBA is about 7 points. a close game can cover by 4 based on final second free throws alone.


    This is completely wrong... The average MOV is about 2.9 points. However Denver averages an MOV of about 7.2 points at home.
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  27. 04-05-11 10:32 AM #27
    goldengreek
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Nuggets coming off the huge win in LA Sunday will come back to reality. I know it's hard to go against the Nugs right now considering how well they have been playing and how good they are at home but I think this is a statement game for Oklahoma City. Thunder are coming off back to back losses and will be ready to play Tuesday night. Also, it's looking very likely that these two will match up in the first round so I'm going with the angle that the Thunder will be out to prove that they can beat Denver in their own arena. Should be a good game but I'm taking the points and maybe the ML too.



    probably gonna be my top play of the day !
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  28. 04-05-11 11:01 AM #28
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post


    This is completely wrong... The average MOV is about 2.9 points. However Denver averages an MOV of about 7.2 points at home.
    What exactly is MOV? I think MOV takes into consideration the teams loses as well. Which imo is not an accurate representation of how many points they win by.

    Iirc average win in the NBA is 10 points.

    For example in Denvers 31 home wins they have won by an average of 14 points.
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  29. 04-05-11 11:02 AM #29
    No coincidences
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    I don't know why anyone would touch this game, let alone put a big play on it.
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  30. 04-05-11 11:10 AM #30
    san2c
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    i like the nuggets, OKC as a dawg on the road = bad track record noooo thanks
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  31. 04-05-11 11:24 AM #31
    demens
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    I don't know why anyone would touch this game, let alone put a big play on it.
    I'm not sure if i'll play this or not but i got a good reason as to why someone WOULD.

    If we bet on a coin flip and i gave you odds for tail at +180 and odds or head at -200 would you make a bet? Someone correct if i'm i'm wrong, i've been on a kick reading a lot of material on gambling lately and from i can tell and pro takes this kind of bet all the time.
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  32. 04-05-11 11:26 AM #32
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by san2c View Post
    i like the nuggets, OKC as a dawg on the road = bad track record noooo thanks
    they are 9-11 (11-9 ATS), how is that a bad record? They went .500 on the road facing mostly elite teams.
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  33. 04-05-11 11:33 AM #33
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    I'm not sure if i'll play this or not but i got a good reason as to why someone WOULD.

    If we bet on a coin flip and i gave you odds for tail at +180 and odds or head at -200 would you make a bet? Someone correct if i'm i'm wrong, i've been on a kick reading a lot of material on gambling lately and from i can tell and pro takes this kind of bet all the time.
    I get what you're saying, but do it on a baseball game then. Much better chances to hit a +150-200 in baseball than betting against the hottest team in the NBA at home.

    Gun to my head I'd take the points here, but not sure if the Thunder ML is the way to go. I don't know.
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  34. 04-05-11 11:38 AM #34
    knelson
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    GL on this one. Not sure I feel strongly enough to bet on this one tho.
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  35. 04-05-11 11:51 AM #35
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post


    probably gonna be my top play of the day !
    Glad to hear it GG... I'm gonna put a little on the ML as well.
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