1. 04-05-11 11:51 AM #36
    demens
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    I get what you're saying, but do it on a baseball game then. Much better chances to hit a +150-200 in baseball than betting against the hottest team in the NBA at home.

    Gun to my head I'd take the points here, but not sure if the Thunder ML is the way to go. I don't know.
    I dont know baseball. But the difference here is that i'm sure the odds in baseball are +150-200 for a reason. It means the -200 team has a better chance to win. I this case i dont think Denver has a better chance at all, i think they are very close to even. Thus i think the line is not 100% accurate. I understand why its where it is and i understand why its rising with people riding Denver hard, but i think all these people are severely underestimating OKC and they are betting into bad odds on a 50/50 play. Anything can happen in this game, they can all win for sure. Now that the line is up to 5 i might even take the points myself, at 4 i think the ML made more sense.
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  2. 04-05-11 12:10 PM #37
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    I dont know baseball. But the difference here is that i'm sure the odds in baseball are +150-200 for a reason. It means the -200 team has a better chance to win. I this case i dont think Denver has a better chance at all, i think they are very close to even. Thus i think the line is not 100% accurate. I understand why its where it is and i understand why its rising with people riding Denver hard, but i think all these people are severely underestimating OKC and they are betting into bad odds on a 50/50 play. Anything can happen in this game, they can all win for sure. Now that the line is up to 5 i might even take the points myself, at 4 i think the ML made more sense.
    Public bets are backing Denver, but not at an unusually high rate from what I've seen so far. ML is 51% and spread 59% in Nuggs' favor at this point, so OKC is getting some love.
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  3. 04-05-11 12:15 PM #38
    jubuck757
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    The team with the best player on the floor gets this game tonight. Sure Denver has been over acheiving sine melo left, but that wont matter tonight. Looking for Durant to have a monster game,, he is due for one. Oklahoma city gets the win...
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  4. 04-05-11 12:35 PM #39
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    What exactly is MOV? I think MOV takes into consideration the teams loses as well. Which imo is not an accurate representation of how many points they win by.

    Iirc average win in the NBA is 10 points.

    For example in Denvers 31 home wins they have won by an average of 14 points.
    The subset of margin of victory in wins or losses makes no sense. This game that we're talking about has not been played yet... So which number do you look at..? The win MOV or the loss MOV?

    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post

    I'm not sure if i'll play this or not but i got a good reason as to why someone WOULD.

    If we bet on a coin flip and i gave you odds for tail at +180 and odds or head at -200 would you make a bet? Someone correct if i'm i'm wrong, i've been on a kick reading a lot of material on gambling lately and from i can tell and pro takes this kind of bet all the time.
    Why are you so insistent that this game is a coinflip? It's not.

    Just because the number crunching spits out a spread of DEN -4 as a fair line, that shouldn't be the end of the analysis. It's just a starting point to look deeper into situational factors and specific matchups.
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  5. 04-05-11 12:38 PM #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by jubuck757 View Post
    The team with the best player on the floor gets this game tonight. Sure Denver has been over acheiving sine melo left, but that wont matter tonight. Looking for Durant to have a monster game,, he is due for one. Oklahoma city gets the win...
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkMage View Post
    I actually like OKC in this one against denver. Denver really is due for a loss and the Lakers game could of gone either way.
    it up...
    Last edited by suicidekings; 04-05-11 at 01:25 PM.
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  6. 04-05-11 01:00 PM #41
    DarkMage
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    I actually like OKC in this one against denver. Denver really is due for a loss and the Lakers game could of gone either way.
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  7. 04-05-11 01:07 PM #42
    thebestthereis
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    denver is not over achieving, they are playing to the level of the team as a whole. melo plays no defense and could care less about anything but numbers. denver is a better team, regardless of record, without that clown on the roster. the knicks will be the same unless he starts playing serious defense. there is a reason the nuggets have played 5-14 to the under since he left and won 100 games, because defense wins games, not flashing selfish players.
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  8. 04-05-11 01:12 PM #43
    jayson311
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    Saying someone or a team is "due" is bad advice. Its like saying black is due this spin...independent everytime
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  9. 04-05-11 01:14 PM #44
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Why are you so insistent that this game is a coinflip? It's not.

    Just because the number crunching spits out a spread of DEN -4 as a fair line, that shouldn't be the end of the analysis. It's just a starting point to look deeper into situational factors and specific matchups.
    I value the situational approach very much. This is the 1st time i even got into number crunching. After making adjustments i came up with a line at -2.5. The situational factors and specific matchups are in fact the main reason i see this game as 50/50, not because of the numbers.

    I see 2 teams that are equally good, and hot. OKC lost 2 games and everyone is abandoning ship but i think they are not in a slump at all. Denver is playing great basketball i give them all the credit in the world but they ARE playing over their heads.
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  10. 04-05-11 01:53 PM #45
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    okc is 2 for 8 ATS. denying what denver is accomplishing is plain foolish.

    nuggets were due for a loss to lakers @ LA right? what makes you think denver is due @ pepsi? cause a team content on their seed is going to step it up to prove something?

    post up your units you have on thunder, i'm curious to see how much you backers have at stakes. if its 1 unit GTFO.
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  11. 04-05-11 02:00 PM #46
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    I value the situational approach very much. This is the 1st time i even got into number crunching. After making adjustments i came up with a line at -2.5. The situational factors and specific matchups are in fact the main reason i see this game as 50/50, not because of the numbers.

    I see 2 teams that are equally good, and hot. OKC lost 2 games and everyone is abandoning ship but i think they are not in a slump at all. Denver is playing great basketball i give them all the credit in the world but they ARE playing over their heads.
    I completely disagree that Denver is playing over their heads. How can you describe a team that shares the ball as much as the Nuggets do (as well as the responsibilty for defense) in such a way?

    They're not an elite team, but the Thunder are not going to be the team to send them that message tonight at home...

    No one is taking away from the Thunder as an excellent team, but
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  12. 04-05-11 02:09 PM #47
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    as much as i want the thunder with the points, i may go denver ML.. of course, I really like the idea of waiting to see how this game turns out in order to factor it into a decision next time these two teams meet.. small play here, larger play later.
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  13. 04-05-11 02:10 PM #48
    djpremier36
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    Why waste time arguing about the side when the UNDER is best play for that game?
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  14. 04-05-11 02:10 PM #49
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    I completely disagree that Denver is playing over their heads. How can you describe a team that shares the ball as much as the Nuggets do (as well as the responsibilty for defense) in such a way?

    They're not an elite team, but the Thunder are not going to be the team to send them that message tonight at home...

    No one is taking away from the Thunder as an excellent team, but
    As much as i love team basketball i believe NBA is a superstar league, and teams dont win without one. OKC has 2, Denver has none. They are doing all the right things, sharing the ball, playing defense, etc. They remind me of a college team in some ways. But i dont think it'll be enough to beat the elite teams (even though they just did) consistently and OKC is right on the verge of elite and not elite imo.
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  15. 04-05-11 02:19 PM #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post

    As much as i love team basketball i believe NBA is a superstar league, and teams dont win without one. OKC has 2, Denver has none. They are doing all the right things, sharing the ball, playing defense, etc. They remind me of a college team in some ways. But i dont think it'll be enough to beat the elite teams (even though they just did) consistently and OKC is right on the verge of elite and not elite imo.
    OKC is NOT an elite team... Outside of their two superstars the remaining talent on the team is not good enough to compete in the playoffs with legitimate elite teams. Either way, if the Nuggets and Thunder meet in the first round, regardless of who wins that series, the other team will be knocked out in the second round. Neither team is a true contender.
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  16. 04-05-11 02:34 PM #51
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    OKC is hit or miss and Denver has been absolutely unstoppable, especially at home since the trade. No guarantee that hey cover but it is a complete mistake to bet against them at this point. They are something incredible like 14-2 ATS of late. Also liking the over.
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  17. 04-05-11 02:50 PM #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Public bets are backing Denver, but not at an unusually high rate from what I've seen so far. ML is 51% and spread 59% in Nuggs' favor at this point, so OKC is getting some love.
    Initially, the betting % were heavily favouring Denver from overnight/early action on a 70/30 split. During the day, those percentages have evened out considerably, so with that in mind, where do you think the public money is primarily going? Plus, the line is still in transition and seeing as it's the middle of the day, the current numbers mean the least by far.
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  18. 04-05-11 05:07 PM #53
    t-wizzle
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    No point in arguing over who the public is on. From what it looks like, it's pretty even to maybe slightly more on Denver. What I'm trying to figure out is why did the line initially drop from 4 to 3.5, then shoot all the way up to 5/5.5 and now is back to 4?
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  19. 04-05-11 06:46 PM #54
    cbiscuit
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    Denver is much improved minus Melo but not world beaters yet. Used them in a teaser with Phil +10, NYK/Tor under 227 Chi/Phx over 198
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  20. 04-05-11 06:57 PM #55
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    I tailed all of these knuckleheads here and played OKC

    therealdealau, jubuck757, twizzle , gg, bolekblues , hotwing
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  21. 04-05-11 06:59 PM #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by NBA_Brosuf View Post
    I tailed all of these knuckleheads here and played OKC

    therealdealau, jubuck757, twizzle , gg, bolekblues , hotwing
    haha you and probably 90% of the people tailing this forum.

    SBR gonna be angry tonight GL
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  22. 04-05-11 08:44 PM #57
    t-wizzle
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    Thunder off to a good start but a long way to go. Should be a close game.
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  23. 04-05-11 08:57 PM #58
    djpremier36
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    I like the way the under 206 is shaping up.
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  24. 04-05-11 09:19 PM #59
    southpaw74
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    Think over 100 2H?
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  25. 04-06-11 12:47 AM #60
    t-wizzle
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    I guess Denver's not so unbeatable at home
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  26. 04-06-11 12:49 AM #61
    demens
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    Nuggs might lose another one tomorrow in Dallas.
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  27. 04-06-11 03:12 AM #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    Nuggs might lose another one tomorrow in Dallas.

    Demens, I tailed your Thunder ML advise and won big tonight. Good call.

    But I respectfully disagree that Nuggets will lose tomorrow in Dallas. Haven't capped it yet, but Mavs are no where a good a team as Thunder, and they've been sloppy last few games. Thunder haven't been sloppy at all, I watched entire Thunder v Clippers game, and they looked great 1H. They lost 2H due to bad reffing.
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