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Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Talladega 🏁
Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Talladega
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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega, Alabama, on Sunday for the Geico 500.
Denny Hamlin raced to his third victory of the season and 40th overall with his win last Sunday at Homestead, his record-tying third NASCAR Cup Series victory at the track. Who will take the checkered flag in Sunday's race at (3 p.m. ET) at Talladega Superspeedway?
ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Matthew Willis and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Brad Keselowski (10-1)
McGee: At first blush, betting on Talladega races feels like playing roulette aboard a San Francisco cable car. But history still reveals trends that lean toward certain racers. Keselowski hasn't had much luck at 'Dega of late (past four finishes: 33rd, 27th, 13th and 25th, including two DNFs via crashes), but the broader picture is still in his favor. His first career win came there in 2009, driving a third-tier rider owned by James Finch and sponsored by a casino. He has won four more times since, leading all active drivers with five wins. And despite the bad final finishing numbers over his past four efforts, he still led double-digit laps in each of those races. The chances of him being a contender on Sunday are 100%. Where he actually finishes? We'll see. As they say in Alabama, "That's 'Dega, baby."
Willis: Talladega is a bit of a crapshoot, but maybe not as much as it's given credit for. Sure, the cars' speed is restricted, giving more teams a chance to compete and keeping the field packed tightly together, but there's still a big element of skill. I would put plate racing (Daytona and Talladega races) up there with road course racing in that certain drivers excel in it and find ways to make moves late in the race to get in front. And I think the best in the series right now in those races is Keselowski. He's already a five-time winner at 'Dega. Only Dale Earnhardt, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon have won there more. Don't let recent bad finishes sway you away; luck comes and go, but the skill is more permanent.
Aric Almirola (25-1)
Symmes: Almirola is coming off his best run of the season (fifth at Homestead) and now heads to one of his best tracks. Almirola has yet to become the week-to-week contender Stewart-Haas Racing envisioned when it hired him in 2018, but he clearly has a knack for speedway racing. His only Cup wins have come at Daytona and Talladega (one at each venue), and he was strong in both 'Dega races last season, finishing ninth and fourth. He's also with the right manufacturer, as Ford has won eight of the past nine Talladega races. Expect Almirola -- and his SHR teammates -- to be a major factor on Sunday.
Clay: Entering the fall of 2016, Almirola had just one top-10 in 13 tries at Talladega. He has gone 7-for-7 since, including four top-5 finishes and a victory in 2018. Impressively, Almirola is the only driver to cross the finish line in all seven of those races. That ability to take care of equipment gives him a much better shot here than his odds would suggest.
Ryan Newman (30-1)
Willis: Who doesn't love a good story of redemption? Newman was involved in one of the scariest wrecks in recent memory in February at Daytona, the only other track where they run the same rules as Talladega. Newman missed a few races, greatly hurting his playoff chances ... unless he wins a race. Newman was leading at Daytona within site of the finish line before finishing in midair. Newman always seems to find himself up front at the end of Talladega and Daytona races, and he usually does a great job of avoiding trouble with nine top-10 finishes in his past 11 plate races. He also was the 2008 Daytona 500 winner.
Sleepers
Michael McDowell (35-1)
McGee: The man known as "McDriver" is superspeedway smart. Just ask the stars of the sport, who have always been willing to work with McDowell at Talladega and Daytona, despite him being at the wheel of a second-tier machine. The problem is that by race's end, they have shed him like a booster rocket. History says Talladega is the one place that, while the meanest of all tracks, is also the kindest when it comes to unlikely winners. See: Richard Brickhouse, Phil Parsons, Dick Brooks, Bobby Hillin Jr., Keselowski in '09 and David Ragan in 2013 (who was driving for the team that McDowell is with now).
Symmes: If it seems like McDowell often makes his presence felt at 2.5-mile superspeedways, it's not your imagination. McDowell finished fifth at Talladega last October and has impressed many other times both at 'Dega and Daytona, where he has six top-10 finishes. Front Row Motorsports has seen an uptick in performance this season, as McDowell and teammate John Hunter Nemechek have combined for eight top-15 finishes, one more than the organization had all of last season. Will McDowell have enough underneath him to finally break through for his first Cup Series win? Stranger things have happened at the famed Alabama track, which just happens to be the site of FRM's only Cup victory (Ragan, 2013).
John Hunter Nemechek (50-1)
Willis: Front Row Motorsports, Nemechek's team, has eight top-five finishes in its Cup Series history; six of those have come at Talladega or Daytona, including a win in the 2013 spring Talladega races (with a second-place finish in that race as well). Nemechek has limited Cup experience in plate races (his only start was an 11th-place run in this year's Daytona 500), but he has a good history in these races in the second-tier Xfinity Series. In four starts, he has three top-10 finishes. This Cinderella story has happened before, why not again?
Corey LaJoie (75-1)
Clay: Talladega has long been known for its chaos and unpredictability. In fact, a pair of 100-1 teammates surged forward during the final restart to finish one-two at this track seven years ago. LaJoie's recent history on superspeedways suggests he will have a similar opportunity come Sunday. He has finished no worse than 11th in his past three races on drafting ovals. In those combined starts, LaJoie's average running position at the midpoint of the race was 29th, and he spent just 11% of all laps inside the top 15, per racing analyst Kevin Matz. His success occurred in the final 10% of those races, where he gained a collective 23 positions to secure respectable finishes. LaJoie will likely be found toward the rear of the field for much of Sunday before making a late charge into contention.
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