Best bets for Wednesday's NASCAR race at Martinsville

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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Virginia on Wednesday for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500.


Editor Scott Symmes correctly picked Kevin Harvick to win last Sunday's race at 5-1 odds. Harvick took the checkered flag in a dominant performance in Atlanta for his 51st career Cup victory. Who will win Wednesday's event (7 p.m. ET) at Martinsville Speedway?


ESPN.com NASCAR senior writer Ryan McGee, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Information's Matthew Willis and Symmes offer their best bets for the race.


Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets

Kyle Busch (4-1)

Symmes: To say Busch is due would be a huge understatement. The 2020 season marks just the fourth time in his 16-year Cup career that Busch has gone winless over the first 10 races. (That doesn't include 2015, when he missed the first 11 races because of injury.) Few have been better in recent years at Martinsville. Before an uncharacteristic 14th-place finish last fall, the reigning Cup champ reeled off eight straight top-5s at Martinsville, including two victories. Another stat working in his favor: He has an average finish of 3.5 (tied for the series' best) in the first two races run with the new short-track package.


Brad Keselowski (5-1)

McGee: It doesn't feel like the world is giving Keselowski the credit he deserves for what he has accomplished since NASCAR returned in May. His two wins and jump from 10th to fourth in the standings have been overshadowed by feuds and heartbreak. He also hasn't been recognized enough for his recent success at Martinsville Speedway, primarily because it has come alongside the always-polarizing Kyle Busch, long ago anointed short-track king. But over the past five years their numbers are nearly identical, with two wins and eight top-5 finishes each. Bad Brad hasn't finished outside the top 10 on the "Paperclip" since 2015 and has won two of the last three spring races (technically that's what this will be Wednesday night), and over the past 10 races there, he has averaged a series-best 41 points per event. That's pretty dang good.


Willis: Keselowski won the year's first short-track race at Bristol, and even though Bristol and Martinsville have little more than their length in common, I think he's a solid pick for Wednesday night. Since the start of 2017, a six-race span, no driver has led more laps (712), run more fastest laps (337) or had a better average finish (4.0) at Martinsville than Keselowski. He has also won the spring race at Martinsville two of the past three years.


Denny Hamlin (6-1)

Willis: Kyle Busch is an excellent pick with his eight top-five finishes and two wins in the past nine Martinsville races, but his teammate, Hamlin, is giving you slightly better value at Martinsville. Hamlin is a five-time winner at the track, and although the last of those wins came in 2015, he is coming off three straight top-5s at the track. Over the past four races at the track, Hamlin has led more laps and run more fastest laps than his more heralded teammate.


Chase Elliott (7-1)

Clay: Elliott has thus far found success with this year's aero package. He had the second-quickest car in Phoenix, per racing analyst Kevin Matz, and led the field at multiple points during that race. Elliott was in the mix for a victory at another short track, Bristol, before a late-race blunder removed him from contention. While Martinsville presents a different challenge due to its unique configuration, Elliott performed well in 2017 with a similar low-downforce package. He led in both races that year and fell just shy of a win in October. He has certainly proven that he has the ability to produce with reduced downforce on short tracks. Elliott starts 11th on Wednesday and it'd be no surprise to see him at the front of the field throughout the night.
Long shots

Jimmie Johnson (16-1)

Symmes: Doesn't it feel like the 2020 season has been building toward a Johnson victory at Martinsville? Hendrick Motorsports is enjoying a resurgence, Johnson has been knocking on the door a lot lately and, oh yeah, he just happens to be a nine-time winner at the famed "Paperclip." That said, the modern-day Martinsville king has had a tough time there in recent years, finishing outside the top 10 in the past six races. But don't let those results scare you off. Johnson has shown speed with the new short-track rules package, and there are plenty of signs to suggest he's inching closer to finally ending his long winless drought (105 races).


Clint Bowyer (20-1)

Willis: Bowyer is not a real long shot, but he would pay off nicely with his odds. Since moving to Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer has a win, four top-10s and has consistently shown speed at Martinsville. Bowyer is driving for one of NASCAR's power teams, his teammate (Harvick) won Sunday, and he has been able to get to the front more this year, already leading more laps in 10 races this season than he did last year in 36 races.