For those of you not aware be vary of backing the Red Bulls in Italy prior to any Practice 1 announcement. Ricciardo is high 90's % to take grid penalties and Verstappen is also a significant risk. I thought both might take the penalties last week given they'd both had engine problems for the last few races, it being comparatively easy to overtake in Belgium, and wanting to have a newish engine for Singapore 2 weeks after Italy. it looks like they're taking them in Italy instead. This is pretty much built into the prices for this weekend. If you are convinced that Verstappen won't take a new engine then there's a bit of value about the top price of +300 for him finishing in the top 3. Personally I wouldn't chance it.

For those of you who like their chalk I point you in the direction of BET365 and their -450 price, (as of posting this), about both Renaults NOT finishing in the top 10. (They are offering +300 on both cars finishing in the top 10, which is ridiculously small). Hulkenberg has a 10 place grid penalty so he will likely be staring 20th, (or 18th if both Red Bulls also take penalties). Both the Red Bulls should be able to get back into the top 6 so that won't matter. Multiple books are offering +150 for Hulkenberg to finish in the top 10 so taking out even a small 2% profit margin he's only a 38% chance. His teammate Sainz is +125 to finish in the top 10 so without a small profit of 2.44% on that line you're looking at 42%. Simple multiplication would suggest the chances are at best 15.96% which would be a -526.5 line. Obviously if Hulkenberg finishes in the top 10 then there's 1 less top 10 place available for Sainz. I have the true line on both or NOT both at +/-600. Need convincing? Bwin has the line at -833.33 on both Renaults NOT finishing in the top 10 and +425 on them both achieving a top 10 finish. This line is correct - so take the -450 on NOT at Bet365.