F1 returns to France after a 10 year gap and this wasn't the track last used in France by F1. This circuit has been extensively remodelled since 1989 so there's no valid F1 data to fall back on. The circuit 'appears' to have similar characteristics to Barcelona so it's all aero, engine and tyre wear with limited driver input and very little chance for overtaking. It projected to be a 1 stop race with a 80kph pit lane speed limit. With the pit speed reduced to 60kph that'll make it even less likely for teams to try a 2 stop strategy. Ferrari sand-bag on Fridays and Bottas missed a lot of time with a water leak so there's very little information to go on. Hamilton was much quicker than anyone else and all 3 Mercedes powered teams have new engines for this race. At this point it looks like an easy 1-2 for Hamilton over Bottas. Hamilton was available at +162 yesterday. After P1 & P2 he's a best price -125 for the win. That could be fantastic value or it could be terrible. There's just no way to know how much Ferrari were sand-bagging. Books are still offering -450 on Hamilton for the podium which surprisingly looks like value because even if Ferrari turn out to be good I can't see 3 drivers getting ahead of him. What scares me is the Force Indias and Williams posted the 4 slowest times in P2, (Ericsson didn't participate due to a crash and fire in P1). The Red Bulls looked flat. Getting above 5th in qualifying will be a big task for them. I wouldn't consider betting them for a podium at this point.

Outside of the top 6 cars Alonso looked pretty good following his win at Le Mans. The 2 Haas cars also looked pretty good. Grosjean outperformed Magnussen in both sessions. I'm probably going to sit this race out betting-wise but if I do bet it will probably be on Grosjean beating Magnussen in the race. Magnusen is still listed at shorter prices than Grosjean for a top 10 finish so Grosjean might be a heads-up underdog, (which would be +ev).

Good luck, but this looks like a race to miss.