Like your thinking re the bet value there. I don't trust Merc with their tire troubles though. They could sacrifice Bottas on an inferior strategy trying to do something innovative to catch the race pace of Ferrari and Red Bull.
Ricciardo the dark horse to win at good odds I think.
Kimi also value to win. Apart from Q3 he has looked better than Seb in most of the other 6 sessions so far this year.