[BigJay]

I know the odds I'm getting now are only plus 250, and I know anything can happen in NASCAR, but if you had to pick one lock you thought was a sure winner in any given race this year would this be it?

[5mike5]

no value now at rhose terrible odds. we got him at better than +500 early in the week so thats a diff story but wouldn't bet him now

and I don't think he's a lock either. Just a big fav

[BigJay]

Glad I got a reply 5Mike. Irregardless of the odds, my question to you in particular (because I value your NASCAR opinion highly) is if odds weren't a factor and you had to pick one lock of the year to win during a particular week on a particular track, would it be Ambrose today, especially knowing he won the pole?

[5mike5]

That said if I was only gonna take 1 driver it would be him. But those odds re just so low now everywhere its a tough sell.

ao yeah if ur only taking 1 driver it would be him cause he is so damn great at the glen. Not as bad if u only take 1 driver I guess even at those odds

[shaunovery]

Ambrose big fav only problem 92 laps and 40 other cars in the way

[Optional]

I wish he was a lock.

He was complaining angrily to the team about his car setup before qualifying. But apologized to them after he won pole.

1 lap is not enough to convince me he isn't stuck with an unbalanced car for the race.

[DDT]

No he wasn't a lock

[BigJay]

Thanks for the replies. It was good advice. It was fun to lay off and just root for everyone else. So much luck involved in NASCAR, where the best car so often doesn't win.

[Optional]

Thanks for the replies. It was good advice. It was fun to lay off and just root for everyone else. So much luck involved in NASCAR, where the best car so often doesn't win.

That's not really true.

The best cars/drivers/crews win almost all the time in NASCAR.

[5mike5]

He means the best car of each race. And they sont win alot of the time Jimmie would have 10 wins not 4 cause he he best car almost weekly. Lol

[Optional]

I guess.

But truth is not many longshots surprise for even a top 10. When people talk about it like it's a total lottery.

[5mike5]

Oh hell no it's not a lottery by any means, if it was I wouldn't spend 30 hrs a week handicapping them! Lol. . that's just people that really don't know a whole lot about the sport, even rhough it might seem that way sometimes. It can be crazy cause the variables, but thats what makes NASCAR great, the fav odds wise don't usually win the races. And it's how we make money betting on it

[5mike5]

If the cars that were suppose to win every week did, it would be F1! Lmao.

(Btw jk)

[Optional]

If the cars that were suppose to win every week did, it would be F1! Lmao.

(Btw jk)

[shaunovery]

Not a lottery just look who was 1st and 2nd a re-run of last yr

Ambrose was in a class apart from that caution put him in traffic

Brad didca great job after the early spin

[yisman]

I guess.

But truth is not many longshots surprise for even a top 10. When people talk about it like it's a total lottery.

Unfortunately true.

I was hoping one of my longshots would crack the top 10 at least even though that wouldn't win me anything.

Turns out I made back 100 betting -290 on field over Ambrose. I had 25 on Ambrose 5/1 (betmania limited me to 25 bets) and then a bunch of longshots.

they know it's a sucker bet offering longshots at a road course (especially ones starting towards the back) which I guess is why they inflated the odds so much but I couldn't help myself.

Let's see if any can even finish top 5. Said, Jr, Burton, Kelly, Fellows, Danica, Gilliland, Ragan. I am assuming none will park, although I could be wrong.

Junior crashed and finished 30th. Burton 26th. Kelly 24th. Fellows 35th (he crashed too?), Gilliland 25th, Ragan 21st, Danica 20th.

So aside from two guys DNF, all the rest finished 20-26.