[SBRforum Staff]

And then there were four

Game Time: 11/12/2006 1:00:00 PM

By: Brian Gabrielle


Four drivers remain in the hunt for the Nextel Cup with just two races left. First up will be the Checker Auto Parts 500 in Phoenix.

With Jeff Burton going belly-up in the Texas race last weekend, we are left with four drivers who can win the '06 Nextel Cup title.

Jimmie Johnson is on one serious roll, having logged one win and three second place finishes in his last four races. Matt Kenseth is the only guy with a reasonable chance to catch him, as he sits 17 points out with just two races left, though considering at the same time J.J. has been notching top-twos, Kenseth has come in 14th, 11th, fourth and 12th, things would have to change pretty dramatically for ol' Milwaukee Matt to come out on top.

Let's talk about the other two guys who've got an outside shot at the title.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. milked a banged-up race car to a sixth-place finish at Texas last weekend, and finally gets back to the desert where he's won twice and is typically very fast. He's 78 points in back of Johnson, which means not only does Junior need to practically win out, he also needs the #48 and #17 teams to have trouble.

Denny Hamlin, the rookie, is 80 points back, and he came in 34th the first time the Smokeless Set came to the desert and finished 33rd last year at Homestead. So his outside shot is getting outsidier every day.

How about Junior? Well, he only finished 23rd here in the spring and never really threatened the top cars that day. In 2005, he crashed out of this fall Arizona race and finished 40th after finishing fourth in the spring of '05. In 2004 and 2003, he won here. It's conceivable that the #8 team could dig down deep, find some speed they lacked at Martinsville and New Hampshire this season and post a top-five. But then what?

Junior hasn't performed well even once in the three events since Homestead was reconfigured from a flattish venue to a high-banked, aero-sensitive track. He has finished 19th, 23rd and 24th there the last three years. Then again, Little E has bucked his own poor trends at other aero tracks this season. He posted top-10 finishes at California, Atlanta (twice), Texas, Charlotte, Michigan (twice), Chicago and Kansas. It wasn't long ago (like, last year) that DEI was struggling big time on the unrestricted intermediates; these days, it seems as though they've caught up.

Unfortunately for Junior, when Johnson doesn't wreck at Homestead he finishes great. He's posted a second and a third (to go along with last year's wreck-induced 40th) at the Miami track. And Kenseth participated in the Roush revolution at Homestead last year, finishing third. Little E will need two great performances to make the lion's share of NASCAR fans happy by winning his first points title. But he'll also need Johnson and Kenseth to suck pretty hard at least once apiece. Given the way J.J. is running, and given his history on these next two tracks, I hope Junior isn't holding his breath.

Last Week: Tony Stewart followed through on his dominant Atlanta win with a somewhat-less-dominant-but-still-pretty-friggin'-sweet win at the similarly-configured Texas track when Johnson pretty much decided to pack it in with a few laps left. We had both Stewart and Johnson, but whereas J.J.'s odds were 6-1, Tony the Tiger was revving around Texas at 8-1, so I was rooting for him. Plus, we also took Smoke against Jeff Gordon in the head-to-head, which means for the week we netted a positive 1.59 units on 1.5 units wagered. As Lorne Greene used to say: that's 106% to you and me, and for the season, we've netted a positive 21.54 units on 59.5 units wagered, which is a 36.2% return. That's just a wee bit better than the stock market, wouldn't you say?

This week, take Kevin Harvick (12-1), 1/6th unit: Harvick swept everything they race at Phoenix the last time the Smokeless Set came through: he crushed the field in the Busch Series event, then turned around and dominated the Cup race, too. It seems like a long time since then as Harvick has had his share of troubles in the Chase for the Championship, including an ugly incident last week, in which a Scott Riggs (35-1) crew member got into a shoving match with Harvick's wife and crew. Harvick is fifth in the points and all but out of it, but that doesn't mean he can't sweep this track for 2006. In fact, he's got very little to lose, so I'd expect him to go balls-out to do just that. The Nextel Cuppers have run five flat-track events so far this year, and Harvick has placed in the top-10 in all five, including two wins (one at Phoenix, one at New Hampshire). He'll be there again toward the end this weekend.

Take Tony Stewart (8-1), 1/6th unit: Stewart is hot at precisely the wrong time. If he'd made the Chase, Tony the Tiger would be leading the dang thing, but instead he'll have to settle for finishing 11th. Too bad he spent so much of the late spring and early summer fighting with Carl Edwards (10-1) and Clint Bowyer (20-1), huh? He's still lacking in maturity, but he's got two straight wins under his prodigious belt and I wouldn't be surprised to see him notch a third this weekend. He finished second here in the spring race, and would've posted the best flat-track finishing average of any driver this year if not for an unfortunate early New Hampshire wreck which caused him to finish 37th there this spring. In the other 2006 flat-track events, Stewart has come first and fourth at Martinsville, second at Arizona and second at New Hampshire. If he stays clean, he'll have a chance to follow up his 1999 win at this venue.

Take Mark Martin (15-1), 1/6th unit: This is literally the first time I've taken ol' Apple-Head-On-A-Stick this season. So why start now? I have memories of the spring Phoenix race in which it seemed Martin was certain to win and spoil Harvick's chances only to lose a lug nut in the pits during a late change and could never make up the track position. In my time picking races, I've found that revenge stories often make good wagers, and Phoenix owes Martin one. I can certainly see someone like Kyle Busch (12-1) building on what should've been a better Phoenix finish this spring - - He sped in the pits during a late caution, then wrecked - - but as Martin's full-time Nextel Cup career winds to a finish, it would be a fine story to see him win just one more time.

[rob]

Harvick would be a great pick at 12/1, but where can you get him at that? I checked several places Sat. night and they all had him at less than 5/1.