1. #1
    SBRforum Staff
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    Brian Gabrielle: Subway 500

    Gordon, Harvick & Hamlin Three to Watch at Subway 500


    Game Time: 10/22/2006 12:55:00 PM
    By: Brian Gabrielle
    http://www.bgsports.com

    The broadcast coverage might not be that good, but the racing is still great on the NASCAR circuit. And after today's Subway 500 at Martinsville, only four more races remain in this year's Nextel Cup schedule.

    Halfway through the Chase for the Championship and the winner is...FOX?

    Sure, Jeff Burton leads the standings by a stately 45 points over Matt Kenseth, with every other driver at least 89 points back. But is anyone else out there thirsting for the days of Boogity-Boogity-Boogity?

    NBC's coverage of Nextel Cup racing over the past couple months has been, to be charitable, awful. Perhaps it has something to do with Benny Parsons missing several races with health problems, or Bill Weber replacing Allen Bestwick as the race anchor. But whatever it is, NASCAR should be very glad to be ridding itself of the Peacock beginning in '07.

    I've been the first one to complain about the slickness and surface-level analysis Fox brings to all its sports coverage - - Why is Fox so fixated on showing fans praying during baseball games? - - and Nextel Cup in particular. Chris Myers is the prince of smarm, and the southern-fried dopes Rupert Murdoch hires to cover racing seem to think it's funnier to hear themselves spout the same tired clichés each week than actually, y'know, watch the race.

    Plus, I've done analysis on the commercial lengths versus actual televised race time at FOX's Daytona 500, and it ain't good. But all that's nothing compared to the disjointed, wall-eyed, canned, pre-packaged dreck NBC has palmed off as race coverage. How many restarts can you miss before you realize you're not good at this? How many cautions and lead changes? How many fawning interviews can you do where the driver isn't taken to task for dopey things he's just done? If Fox is the network of commerciality, NBC is the network of amateur hour.

    Perhaps ESPN will shake things up next season as it takes over for NBC/TNT's half of the Nextel Cup season. Perhaps. The network that brought you the Great Outdoor Games and Suzy Kolber doesn't exactly inspire confidence, if you know what I mean, and if you're relying on the Boys from Bristol to cut out commercials, you're barking up the wrong dollar-lined tree.

    Still, the news that Rusty Wallace will be part of the broadcast team is welcome. News that Brent Musberger will be part of the broadcast team, however, is not. Rusty tends to tell it like it is, and if he can get past his worry that the drivers might not like him, something he didn't seem to have a problem with on the track, he'll be great.

    But the truth is, what makes racing coverage good is production quality, which translates to non-stupid graphics, non-superfluous feature stories, and good instincts about when to fit in the 1,000 commercials during each race. If ESPN would ever implement the same side-by-side commercial/racing feature they used during IRL races this year, by the way, I promise I'd never say another bad thing about Bristol, Connecticut.

    And that's saying something.

    Last Week: Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

    I had Kasey Kahne to sweep Charlotte at 5-1 odds and, lo and behold, the much-commercialized #9 driver did his part holding off Jimmie Johnson for the win.

    Get used to it, folks: Kahne is going to be seriously on my radar screen for the upcoming races in Atlanta and Texas, as well. Unfortunately, I didn't post my head-to-head selection in time for it to be of any use to you, so even though I got it right (I picked Dale Earnhardt Jr. over Carl Edwards), I don't feel right including it in the annual statistics. So that means we wagered a total of one-half of a unit last weekend, and netted a positive one-half: a 100% return on investment.

    For the year, by the way, we've netted a positive 21.44 units on 57.5 units wagered, which gives us a 37.3% return on investment. Which is a little better than the stock market, and a whole lot more fun.

    Take Jeff Gordon (+350), 1/6th unit: I'm betting you'll be able to find at least slightly more amenable odds out there, but even if you can't, Gordon's probably worth the hedge. He's won at the short, paper clip-shaped, flat track at Martinsville seven times, including two of the last three events here and a second here in the spring. Gordon has posted three consecutive DNFs, so the buzzard is certainly circling above him. But I think chances are better than even that he'll win on Sunday afternoon.

    Take Kevin Harvick (+1400), 1/6th unit: Then again, I really like Harvick this weekend, and I think he's a much better value at this price. Harvick was dominant at New Hampshire last month, which is another flat track. He also won at Phoenix early this season which is, you guessed it, another flat track. In fact, Harvick has the best finishing average this season at Martinsville, Phoenix and New Hampshire combined (Jeff Gordon is second, by the way), and is also known as the circuit's best (or at least second-best) short-track driver. He qualified 12th, but don't let that scare you away; winners come from the back at Martinsville all the time. The good thing about Gordon and Harvick is that they're smart enough to know not to use up their equipment in the race's first half. That's key, because once your brakes start to go at a place like Martinsville, they don't come back.

    Take Denny Hamlin (+1200), 1/6th unit: Truthfully, I wanted to take Tony Stewart (+450) here, but I felt guilty picking the two overwhelming favorites, so I'm going with Smoke's teammate, young Mr. Hamlin. Denny grew up just a few minutes from Martinsville, and though he fought trouble all day there this spring (eventually coming 37th), he grew up driving short and dirt tracks, with an eye toward getting in the Martinsville bullring someday with a Cup car. And here he is. Now, Stewart qualified fifth (to Hamlin's third), won the race here in April, came second in this same race last fall, and in several events before that, had a car good enough to win but had wacky stuff happen to him, like a wheel randomly falling off. Truthfully, I'm very concerned that Big Orange can get right up front all night and wreck these plans of mine. But again, I thought it would be rather wussy to take both Stewart and Gordon, so here's a wager for Stewart-Lite. If Hamlin could win a Nextel Cup race at this track, he might literally float home.

  2. #2
    gummo
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    Yeah, I think Gordon finally pulls one out today.

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