1. 06-05-12 10:31 AM #36
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    I definitely want to go sometime... we may be going to Michigan next weekend.
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  2. 06-05-12 10:34 AM #37
    shaunovery
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    Think I'll leave Hamlin alone even at 5-1 too short if I can get him beat I'll have a good price winner I remember last year he was short and didn't win
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  3. 06-05-12 10:49 AM #38
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyanLeafOfBets View Post
    I definitely want to go sometime... we may be going to Michigan next weekend.
    ive never been to michigan before....

    ive been just about everywhere else to watch CUP events....

    Michigan and Texas are the 2 tracks next on my list to go see a race at for sure
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  4. 06-05-12 10:52 AM #39
    5mike5
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    think i might press my luck with a Qualifying bet again this week...

    was fun , not sure i will put as much as i did last week on jimmy though...pocono qualifying not as cut and dry...even at -150 that was a gift for a H2H that has won 7 qualifying times in a row there...not sure there will be another gift this week

    just have to see what the matchups are this week
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  5. 06-05-12 11:25 AM #40
    5mike5
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    GORDON down from +900, to now +800 too



    even my truex longshot getting some love..hahah

    double didgit drivers im looking at should start getting better after a few of the favorites have got hammered this morning
    Last edited by 5mike5; 06-05-12 at 11:29 AM.
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  6. 06-05-12 02:41 PM #41
    5mike5
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    another HUGE thing we also need to remember:

    POCONO was REPAVED during the offseason....

    going to be a wildcard, just another reason to have drivers that are typically great there...1st races afrer fresh pave job can be tricky
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  7. 06-05-12 02:44 PM #42
    5mike5
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    also the POCONO race have been shortened to 400 miles....it has always been 500 miles in the past
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  8. 06-05-12 02:50 PM #43
    yisman
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    5 dimes keeps a close watch here. hard to beat them to the line moves!

    no bets for me yet because they sucked all the value out of the market and I don't even think they moved up other drivers to compensate.
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  9. 06-05-12 02:52 PM #44
    5mike5
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    kinda shocked that there has not been more lines move in the other direction too yisman...

    not 1 single drivers odds has got better yet
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  10. 06-05-12 02:55 PM #45
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    another HUGE thing we also need to remember:

    POCONO was REPAVED during the offseason....

    going to be a wildcard, just another reason to have drivers that are typically great there...1st races afrer fresh pave job can be tricky
    teams will have "non-official" practices on wed/thurs to get a feel for the new pave job since there has not been a race since it was paved
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  11. 06-05-12 02:59 PM #46
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    kinda shocked that there has not been more lines move in the other direction too yisman...

    not 1 single drivers odds has got better yet
    it's the lazy way of doing it. They open up with standard vig on the market.

    Then they check 5mike5's bets and drop the lines on all of them, but it would take time to adjust the other lines back to keep the vig consistent, so they don't bother.
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  12. 06-05-12 05:36 PM #47
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deal With It View Post

    Where can I find these stats at?
    racing-reference.info
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  13. 06-05-12 11:40 PM #48
    shaunovery
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    Think towards end of the week odds get better behind jimmy and Denny going to try and get them beat this weekend and find a nice price winner
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  14. 06-06-12 03:22 AM #49
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    another HUGE thing we also need to remember:

    POCONO was REPAVED during the offseason....

    going to be a wildcard, just another reason to have drivers that are typically great there...1st races afrer fresh pave job can be tricky
    The above could be a huge wild card for this event. I think previous form can be pretty much thrown out the window at this stage.

    I think the practice sessions will be a bigger indicator of competitiveness than normal for this race. Kasey Kahne is very tempting @ +1500. I think he was the only top driver to have already tested on the new tarmac.

    EDIT - I just double checked up who was at the test earlier in the year:     AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray.
    Last edited by MatI; 06-06-12 at 03:31 AM.
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  15. 06-06-12 04:04 AM #50
    Optional
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    Jimmie says the repave will make the track all about aero at the expense of mechanical grip this time around.

    Any opinions on which team/s might have an aero advantage?
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  16. 06-06-12 04:25 AM #51
    MatI
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    I'm not sure if any teams have any aero advantage. If one did, surely it would be the Hendrick cars. But greater aero dependence will mean that it will be very difficult to pass and only one racing groove. It will most likely be another race with lots of green flag running and very few yellows.
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  17. 06-06-12 05:28 AM #52
    Optional
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    Also worth noting for future races, they have used the same recipe for the asphalt in the repave as was there to start with. Apparently other recent repaves have used a new formula, and they expect this one to wear into multiple grooves quicker then the new stuff has.
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  18. 06-06-12 06:51 AM #53
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    The above could be a huge wild card for this event. I think previous form can be pretty much thrown out the window at this stage.

    I think the practice sessions will be a bigger indicator of competitiveness than normal for this race. Kasey Kahne is very tempting @ +1500. I think he was the only top driver to have already tested on the new tarmac.

    EDIT - I just double checked up who was at the test earlier in the year:     AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray.
    i think its a HUGE advantage for drivers who have dominated at POCOCNO before....and i mean HUGE

    plus i dont think it matters at all who tested here for a day earlier, becuase they all get 2 days, today and tomorrow, of unoffical practices...every team will have plenty of track time after the next 2 days

    they claim tunnel turn and short-shoot are the exact same as b4...only differnce is speed and grip, but races here are usually spread out with long runs and i dont expect that to change at all
    Last edited by 5mike5; 06-06-12 at 07:21 AM.
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  19. 06-06-12 06:55 AM #54
    5mike5
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    hamlin +350, he will get no where near +500 again...be suprised if gorodn comes close to the +900 either



    going to look today for my last early pick today, and leave 1 for this weekend
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  20. 06-06-12 07:33 AM #55
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    i think its a HUGE advantage for drivers who have dominated at POCOCNO before....and i mean HUGE
    Can I ask what makes you think a repaving of a track will mean a bigger advantage for guys who have normally been strongest?

    Previously, repaving projects have meant setups need to be re-worked and advantages that one team/driver may have had were lost.

    From what I have read, Pocono has seemed to have kept most of its previous characteristics, but will be much faster. So Hamlin/Gordon should still be very strong. But i do not understand how any repave will lead to a bigger advantage. If anything, it will mean a slight levelling of the playing field.

    Also, previous test was for 2 days. The guys who attended will be able to get straight into it, and not have to feel their way around the circuit for the first few laps. But yes, the 2 extra days of practice sessions should negate most of that advantage.
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  21. 06-06-12 07:58 AM #56
    5mike5
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    the drivers who always have been good there nothing will change....i know it was 2 days, but like you saud mati, teams have all that info, and after 4 more days of practice there is 0 advantage to a test that the whole team has the exact data from..drivers who struggled b4 arent going to magically get good becusae of a repave or even out any playing field imho...i think it more likely widens it

    these same guys who struggles at pocono still will and probably will more, at the same ol' drivers who excel will still excel...speed and grip wont change anything as far as performance goes, but maybe make it harder for bad flat track drivers...doesnt even out the playing field at all i doubt...

    strategy may play the biggest role since its never been 400 miles before too

    theres 10-15 guys that could win maybe, definatley not just hamlin/gordon....if that was the case i would only bet those 2..hahahah...and believe me im not THAT confident Mati...as red hot as we have been at winners, im due a cool off week soon...probably this week

    just my opinion
    Last edited by 5mike5; 06-06-12 at 08:12 AM.
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  22. 06-06-12 08:09 AM #57
    5mike5
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    im looking at KAHNE as well...just havent made my mind up yet

    any1 else u are leaning toward Mati?
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  23. 06-06-12 08:24 AM #58
    MatI
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    Leaning the same as you Hamlin, Gordon and also JJ. I like Harvick as well, he has always been solid at Pocono, but he has never managed to pull out the win, so I don't think he will be one of my choices.

    I am still keen to see how practice will go as i believe the track will change. It does not mean someone who struggles will all of a sudden be competitive, but I think the natural order will shuffle slightly.
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  24. 06-06-12 08:29 AM #59
    5mike5
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    i agree about those picks....jimmy running lights out, but i had to choose from denny/jimmy..at least at the moment...no way with those odds i could take 2 and still have plenty of room i needed for other picks..plus jimmy hasnt won here since '04 and that was deciding factor...i also think GRUBB as new vrew-chief is a huge addition for hamlin, hes great at flat track set-ups

    looking at KYLE(like harvick 3 top 5;s last 4 races, but 0 wins) and KAHNE also....probably pick just 1 more for now and another sunday morning after odds shift again...i think most of the value is early again this week though as far as price of the elite drivers

    i took HARVICK already (+350) to win group B (edwards, kahne, kennseth, BK)....3 top 5s out of last 4 hard to argue with...thought it was worth a shot at the group...its down to +285 now
    Last edited by 5mike5; 06-06-12 at 08:33 AM.
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  25. 06-06-12 08:33 AM #60
    MatI
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    Agreed. Hard to go against Denny, especially with Grubb on his side now. I feel the same about Gordon as well, it's to take him when the racing gods seem to not be smiling on him at all lately.

    Good luck with the group bet. I do like it, but I think Carl & Harvick should have a solid race too. I think all will be in top 10, just which order.....
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  26. 06-06-12 08:37 AM #61
    5mike5
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    totlly agree....its a TOUGH group and may all be in a pack....

    gordon saying top 5s and 10s were useless to the team now, and wins are only thing that matters i like as a win bettor...and hes not just blowin smoke either, that team needs it to have any chance at post-season...but ur right, the racing gods are frowning on that team

    edwards finally had speed b4 failure last weekend, and hes good here too, but damn, ive picked him so many times and he just seems not to have it...but maybe this is the weekend?

    i also will take a look at sessions this week, and i usually could pretty much care less about them...but with pave job and long green runs expected, ill look at 10-lap averages, but wont overreact to them either...qualifying up front always a great thing at pocono too

    have a feeling with being 400 miles for 1st time, strategy may be a looming factor in this 1...something that rarely( i mean NEVER) works out in my favor...hahah
    Last edited by 5mike5; 06-06-12 at 08:44 AM.
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  27. 06-06-12 09:03 AM #62
    5mike5
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    i dont think ive ever seen a week that odds have not got any better on 1 single driver, after top 3 picks have got hammered this much!?

    not even the midteens to 20s-1 guys havent moved 1 pt better yet,,,odd

    just seems odd, or lazy as Yisman said
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  28. 06-06-12 09:07 AM #63
    MatI
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    Hopefully fuel strategy won't come into it and it will be a straight out race being 100 miles less this year. But who knows until we get through the race.

    Let us know your thoughts on practice. I'll be pretty busy the next few days and completely different timezone, so it will be pretty hard for me to follow the sessions too closely.
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  29. 06-06-12 09:13 AM #64
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    Hopefully fuel strategy won't come into it and it will be a straight out race being 100 miles less this year. But who knows until we get through the race.

    Let us know your thoughts on practice. I'll be pretty busy the next few days and completely different timezone, so it will be pretty hard for me to follow the sessions too closely.
    i will buddy

    have a good week and GL with all ur racing plays this weekend, and let me know what you decide about the CUP race too if u can! I always like to know ur leans

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  30. 06-06-12 04:09 PM #65
    csavoia
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    Hey everyone. I went to 5dimes and the only racing they have up right now is for the Canada grand prix. Am I missing it somewhere ??
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  31. 06-06-12 04:13 PM #66
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by csavoia View Post
    Hey everyone. I went to 5dimes and the only racing they have up right now is for the Canada grand prix. Am I missing it somewhere ??
    the Sprint CUP odds for pocono got taken down a few hours ago..xtra practices today and tomorrow cause the track has been repaved since last time CUP cars ran there..not sure when they will put them back up

    .been up since tuesday morning
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  32. 06-06-12 05:46 PM #67
    shaunovery
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    Bet365 have prices availble
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  33. 06-06-12 05:52 PM #68
    5mike5
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    they are being posted later

    no sense in taking them down anyways for these "xtra" test days imo

    nothing will really be known til the teams put everything together for the fri regular practices..
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  34. 06-06-12 07:06 PM #69
    csavoia
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    Thanks for the update mike
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  35. 06-06-12 08:10 PM #70
    5mike5
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    they have the last "non-official" test day tomorrow at 6am and 10am in the morning, so may not be up til tomorrow night, but no way to tell
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