1. 03-20-12 12:42 PM #1
    5mike5
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    FONTANA--5mike5

    Alright boys were going to be at FONTANA Super Speedway this weekend....looking to keep the ball rolling on this amazing start to the 2012 season!!!....hard work has definatley paid off so far...

    FONTANA is a 2.0 mile D-shaped Oval...
    14 degress banking in the turns and 11 degrees on the frontstretch and 3 degrees on the backstrech
    The frontstrech is 3100 feet long, and the backstrech is 2500 feet long

    i personally love these 2 mile tracks....already been hard at it watching last 3 races and diving into my notebooks on fontana track and driver performace notebooks from there...will definatley be taking several drivers early this week and will post up all early picks when i decide...i do this thread just so others can see and share info, and in no way am i wanting others to blindly tail my picks each race , as i dont want credit for wins, no more than i want credit due do a loss

    SPRINT CUP WEEKEND SCHEDULE:

    PRACTICES:
     FRIDAY @ 3PM(EST) AND SATURDAY @ NOON AND 3:30 PM(EST) all will be on SPEED channel

    QUALIFYING: FRIDAY @ 7pm (est) on SPEED channel

    FONTANA RACE: SUNDAY @2:30PM on FOX

    as always any thoughts and USEFUL insight always welcome and encouraged on my thread...more information shared the better chance we all to win the race every week...Won every single race so far so lets all keep it up!!!

    GOODLUCK to everyone in FONTANA this weekend!!!!

    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 12:10 AM.
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  2. 03-20-12 02:51 PM #2
    Dad
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    I'm thinking of going to this one, Mike.
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  3. 03-20-12 05:06 PM #3
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dad View Post
    I'm thinking of going to this one, Mike.
    ohhh very nice Dad..let me know if u end up going

    i have not got to attend nascar event in california before ...id like to though, just been traveling alot latley so im staying home this week to get some needed rest
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  4. 03-20-12 05:33 PM #4
    5mike5
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    the #48 team WIN the final appeal and all penalties, fines, and docked points are being reinstated...kanaus 6-race suspension also overturned as well

    not but a handful of times has this been accomplished against nascar...a reduction is the norm, but a harsh penalty being totally thrown out almost never happens!

    nice job guys
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-20-12 at 05:40 PM.
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  5. 03-20-12 06:04 PM #5
    JackalLion
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    Lines just went live a little while ago. Do you see in early value Mike? I'm taking Tony and Bowyer.
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  6. 03-20-12 06:09 PM #6
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Lines just went live a little while ago. Do you see in early value Mike? I'm taking Tony and Bowyer.
    i havent bet anybody yet...not done with all my analysis yet...they both have ok finishes here, and smoke 1 win but not sure ill bet either of them early..im not a fan of betting bowyer on speedways but hes a top 10 finisher here latley, but ill just wait and see..0 of his 5 career sprint wins have came on this track type..i have to do alot of work with early odds/and past analysis so i never bet asap when odds are posted usually..

    but, i would never try and tell anybody what picks to make, especially if u like the early value...if u like it i say go 4 it!

    usually dont place early wagers before late tonight/ early wed. morning
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-20-12 at 06:18 PM.
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  7. 03-20-12 06:14 PM #7
    JackalLion
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    Thanks!
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  8. 03-20-12 06:19 PM #8
    5mike5
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    i will say that im rather suprised at how well the MWR cars have looked so far this season...if they keep hangin around the top 5 like they have been its only a matter of time until they will get a win imo...
    i mean VICKERS even looked strong stepping into a MWR car at Bristol, now that says it all becuase hes awful...LOL
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  9. 03-20-12 10:09 PM #9
    DDT
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    Everyone is surprised with the MWR cars, Truex and Bowyer seem to be near the top in every race.
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  10. 03-20-12 10:17 PM #10
    5mike5
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    yeah seems to be...dont think ill have them this week but ya never know til sunday
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  11. 03-20-12 10:22 PM #11
    DDT
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    Who are you liking early?
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  12. 03-20-12 10:23 PM #12
    5mike5
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    ill probably go ahead and bet 2-3 wagers early starting late tonight, or in the morning just on my past driver notes for Fontana and just go from there...leaving room even with those early picks to add or leave alone in case i just end up using them as covering wagers...pretty much what ive done every week and worked out perfect so im not going to change up anything at the moment
    been SO helpful making sure i watch the entire past 3-4 races run on each track b4 making any wagers...

    watching lap averages and practice havent been NEAR as helpful as in the past....and neither has qualifying...all those have been good for is moving odds...past track performance/ watching the past 3 races at each track is what has won me the every single race to start the year...just goes to show paying attention to just 1 area wont win money usually...ESPECIALLY just looking at practice/qualifying sessions each week...thats a losing battle
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-20-12 at 10:34 PM.
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  13. 03-20-12 10:30 PM #13
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDT View Post
    Who are you liking early?

    havent made any final decisions quite yet...just going through my driver notebooks after watching around 10 damn hours of tape of Fontana last 2 days...
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  14. 03-20-12 10:47 PM #14
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    havent made any final decisions quite yet...just going through my driver notebooks after watching around 10 damn hours of tape of Fontana last 2 days...
    there are several drivers i would never leave off my roster at Fontana personally, but just narrowing down the early wagers...i juts make sure i wont box myself in ya know...still being able to turn an early wager into just a cover wagers is an advantage, just like having option to + bets to the early picks as well just in case the odds do get better

    but usually the top performers @ Fontana odds never get the price they were b4 the sessions start

    the top-level cream of the crop guys have dominated this track for years now...you wont find a "suprise" winner at Fontana since elliot sadler won here over a decade ago
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-20-12 at 10:53 PM.
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  15. 03-20-12 10:55 PM #15
    5mike5
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    TOYOTA has never won a Sprint Cup race at FONTANA either....kyle won here in fall race of 2005 driving chevy
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  16. 03-20-12 11:43 PM #16
    JackalLion
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    He didn't win but he dominated last year if I remember correctly. You probably just watched it, what happened to him?
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  17. 03-20-12 11:49 PM #17
    5mike5
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    yeah he lead around 150 laps i think last year, but also only lead 5 laps and didnt finish on lead lap 3 of his other 4 races at Fontana before last years race...i mean he decent there dont get me wrong, but VERY hit and miss..

    his average finish in last 4 Fontana races is a not so good 17.5...and thats with a 3rd place finish sprinkled in there..his driver rating is 6th best at 107, but that is in large part due entirely to last years performance that came up short....hes my favorite driver and i usually always bet him, and probably will this week too, but sometimes just seeing a stat can be very decieving...

    so hes had 1 good race there of his last 4 or 5 when it comes to having a performance that could have won...even though he finished 3rd in 2010 spring race, he never had a good enough car to win that day either and only lead 5 laps...sometimes the finish position doesnt tell the story, which is why i think watching entire past races is a huge advantage
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 12:01 AM.
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  18. 03-21-12 12:00 AM #18
    JackalLion
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    Thanks! That's why I asked I knew that you would know the real story
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  19. 03-21-12 12:05 AM #19
    5mike5
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    now i didnt say dont bet him jackalion, i was just throwing u out some #s of recent results there, as he did look great and dominate there last time they ran last spring...he also won the Nationwide event last year as well on same weekend he lead 151 laps in Cup series, so when hes on there, hes on

    and will more than likely bet Kyle for Sprint Cup this weekend, as hes my fav. driver and he can win anywhere, as he has won at FONTANA in both series in the past....just giving up different angles
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  20. 03-21-12 07:36 AM #20
    5mike5
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    took harvick(+1100) and kennseth(+1000) early this morning and will add 1-more later today probably...just debating between the last few i know ill take if to wait or go ahead and take them early

    left plenty of room to + bets to them or leave as cover wager if need be
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 07:54 AM.
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  21. 03-21-12 07:39 AM #21
    Optional
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    I think there is a little more to his driver ratings here than the raw numbers. In the Oct 2010 for instance he showed similar sort of dominance as in 2011 for the laps he was out there, ratings wise. Still ending up with an 84 for a 35th and missing 1/4 of the race is strong imho.
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  22. 03-21-12 07:44 AM #22
    5mike5
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    my point really was hes only lead a total of around 15 laps last 5 races besides the 150 last year...and non-lead lap finished in 2 of those...and yeah i agree 84 is strong finishing 35th

    hell ill have him sometime this week, just isnt as great as some of those #s make him seem...besides last year, i wasnt blown away by the races ive watched there last few days

    im just deciding if im taking him and jimmy early or wait it out....may even go not too hard and grab them both up now with my other 2
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 07:51 AM.
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  23. 03-21-12 07:47 AM #23
    5mike5
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    liking anybody early Opti?
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  24. 03-21-12 08:16 AM #24
    5mike5
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    im probably going to pull the trigger on 2 more early picks and just make sure i leave myself room to add or leave them as covering wagers...looking at past line movement im not sure its not worth the risk and just go ahead and bet them....when i add 2 more that will be all my early wagers...dont want to box myself in, and will still have plenty of room for after sessions to make adjustments and add drivers...cant see any of these being just covering wagers, but the amount will allow me to + or leave as covers if need be
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 08:23 AM.
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  25. 03-21-12 10:04 AM #25
    JackalLion
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    Mike thanks for the info. My final early choices will be Jimmy, Harvick and Bowyer.
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  26. 03-21-12 10:31 AM #26
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    liking anybody early Opti?
    Harvick, JJ and Kyle.

    But not enough to take any of the early odds before I see practice.

    Will be watching for Bowyer like JackalLion too.
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  27. 03-21-12 10:34 AM #27
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Harvick, JJ and Kyle.

    But not enough to take any of the early odds before I see practice.

    Will be watching for Bowyer like JackalLion too.
    yeah hes +3300 early too

    ill be adding jj/kyle early as well i think...i cant see me leaving either totally off my roster so just smarter for me to have them now and leave myself room to either keep adding money to the bets or just leave them as a covering wagering...just dont see either getting any better than they are now, but i can see them dropping a few points if they do well in the sessions...
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 10:38 AM.
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  28. 03-21-12 10:42 AM #28
    5mike5
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    i bet jj/matt/kyle/harvick just about every race @Fontan so i know im going to have them on my roster, so might as well bet them early and just leave room to keep adding bets to each or leave as a cover wager if i dont like what i see...especially since past track performances outweigh weekly sessions imho
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  29. 03-21-12 11:30 AM #29
    5mike5
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    pulled trigger on jimmy (+750) and KYLE (+850)....

    along with 29 and 17 i already bet, those 4 drivers will more than likely be all my early wagers...i left room to add to these bets many times or just leave them alone as cover wagers if need be...
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-21-12 at 11:36 AM.
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  30. 03-21-12 12:39 PM #30
    5mike5
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    get this bad news out of the way:

    40% chance of rain on saturday at Fontana

    90% chance of rain on sunday at Fontana



    since its only wednesday, hopefully that changes
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  31. 03-21-12 06:00 PM #31
    DDT
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    I sure hope that forecast changes, I can't stand waiting all day for the race to start.
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  32. 03-21-12 07:51 PM #32
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDT View Post
    I sure hope that forecast changes, I can't stand waiting all day for the race to start.
    no doubt...
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  33. 03-22-12 03:55 AM #33
    Optional
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    Ugh... 90% Sunday

    Fingers crossed the weatherman is wrong.
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  34. 03-22-12 06:41 AM #34
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Ugh... 90% Sunday

    Fingers crossed the weatherman is wrong.
    yes VERY bad #
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  35. 03-22-12 07:07 AM #35
    5mike5
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    checked this morning still 90 % chance on sunday
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