You’ve got two premiere events going on this Saturday that are separated by only 560 miles. In Louisville, Kentucky, there’s the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby, one of the true staples of Americana sport. A few hours later under the lights, The NASCAR Nextel Cup Series takes its touring circus to Richmond, Virginia, the Capital of the Confederacy.
The Derby is an Institution in America and it’s a day when just about everyone gets some kind of wager on the race. While NASCAR’s greatest event, the Daytona 500, generates a much higher TV rating than the Derby, the horses get the nod in this one by an average of two rating shares over the last few seasons combined. Richmond has averaged a 5.7 share in the Nielson ratings while the Kentucky Derby has been a solid 8.1. The big difference between the ratings is that NASCAR has gotten those Richmond ratings on cable television while the Derby has been offered to a national TV audience with NBC. The Derby isn’t on in Prime Time like NASCAR, but is offered in several million more homes.
Here are some differences between the two events that may help decide which one to attend if given that opportunity.
Each car has 750 horsepower and there are 43 cars in the field, which equates to 32,250 horsepower for one race. The Derby will likely have around 20 horses with skills that are above average, so we’ll say each of the Derby entrants are equivalent to 1.25 horsepower making the total horsepower output a staggering 25 horsepower. That is just about as much power as many lawnmowers. For simple value, and more Horsepower, NASCAR gets the edge in this area.
The history of the two great states has the who’s who of American history come from each of them. Virginia leads off with George Washington, Thomas, Jefferson, and James Madison. Kentucky comes back strong with Abraham Lincoln, Daniel Boone, and Kit Carson. Each had points taken away for birthing the American traitors of Jefferson Davis from Kentucky and Robert E. Lee from Virginia. Have to give the edge to Virginia and NASCAR again for their roles in making America what it is.
The choice of cocktail at each event varies, but the Derby has their signature drink, The Mint Julep. I’m sure it was tasty and refreshing at some point for someone, but personally, I have never warmed up to that drink, and that is real hard for any drink to do. At the Richmond NASCAR race there are all kinds of variety to choose from, but the best may be found, if you’re lucky enough, at one of the tailgater parties in the parking lot which is pure white lightning. I have no idea why someone hasn’t marketed this crisp and clean down to business spirit to the rest of North America, but its good stuff. NASCAR beverages get the nod here.
In the attire category, Kentucky definitely gets the nod. Seventy-five percent of the women are adorned with beautiful bonnets and sun dresses. With everyone dressed up it adds to the prestige of the event; it adds class and it gives it a real 19th turn of the century feel. In Richmond this Saturday night 75 percent of the women are bound to have some kind Dale Earnhardt or Junior gear on. While the black and red do go well together, I’ll take the girl in the sun dress and bonnet. Derby attire gets the nod.
The Kentucky Derby is held only once a year, as opposed to two annual stock car events in Richmond, therefore giving the Derby the overall edge in this comparison because of just how unique it is. Unlike the NASCAR event, people at the Kentucky track are able to make wagers on the event their attending which is a major strike against the NASCAR event.
Fortunately for the NASCAR fans in Nevada, they can walk into any Sports Book they like and throw down a few dollars on the driver they like. We’re going to get down to business here and help with some opinions on the top candidates to win this week.
Richmond is a three-quarter mile D-shaped oval with slight 14 degree banking around the turns. Because of its size, speeds rarely get over 128 mph which means the drivers won’t feel as bad with safety issues when they knock someone into the wall. If I had to compare it to any track, or a combination of a few, I would go back and review your Phoenix notes and/or New Hampshire. Drivers like Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart show a strong link to Phoenix and Richmond.
We’ve established that there are a few things we can key on coming in, but there hasn’t been much of a pattern established on the track. In the last nine races there have been nine different winners. Of those nine races, we have a nice mix of driving styles and manufacturers. Each manufacturer has won three races over that span. The common link between three of the drivers is that they’re former Sprint car drivers. Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, and Tony Stewart have all wins over that span.
Qualifying has been the key in the last few Richmond races. The last six have been won from a starting position of seventh or better. There will only be one practice session this week and it will be followed by qualifying on Friday. Chances are the teams will set their cars up for the race will little regard for qualifying.
Another separate qualifying note, the last twelve Richmond races have had a different driver win the pole.
Stewart is the favorite in this race at 6 to1. In fourteen career Richmond Cup races, he’s had nine top 10 finishes that include three wins. The three wins make him the active leader in Richmond among all Cup drivers. He finished strong at Phoenix a few weeks ago and chances are that he’ll be just as good. Chances are he’ll also lead a lap too. He’s the only driver this season to lead a lap in all nine races this year. Because of his consistency, Stewart has moved from 22nd in points all the way to third since the California race.
Kasey Kahne got his first career win in this race last year with Stewart in tow. His teammate Jeremy Mayfield had won the previous Richmond race prior so there’s no reason not to believe that Ray Evernham will bring all his Dodges in primed for this race, including Scott Riggs. Kahne finished sixth at Phoenix with both Riggs and Mayfield finishing unimpressively outside the top 25.
Jeff Gordon is not one of the last nine drivers to win at Richmond. He has only two wins in his career at the track, none since the fall of 2000.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has two Richmond wins with the last coming in this race two years ago, the same time span when he was winning in Phoenix. Last year was a transition year for the team where the performed poorly, yet still finished a respectable 14th and 20th in the two Richmond races. Look for a good race out of Junior this week.
Matt Kenseth won his only Richmond race back in the fall of 2002. He’s always been consistent at this track coming in with seven top 10 finishes in twelve starts. In his last start there, Kenseth finished second. At Phoenix a few weeks ago, Kenseth rolled to a strong third place.
Kyle Busch did as well as any first timer could ever wish last year. He went to Richmond and rolled to two fourth place finishes. He doesn’t have a lot of friends out there and may be one of the drivers that a few don’t need an excuse to throw into the wall. This is his race to take this week. Busch falls into that category of drivers doing well at both Phoenix and Richmond. He won the fall race at Phoenix last season and was on the pole this year there.
Greg Biffle is the only driver coming in that can claim three straight top 10 finishes at Richmond. Right now, Biffle would probably take another top 10 even though the team has to be extremely frustrated knowing they have had the best car in three races this season and don’t even have one top 5 finish let alone a single a win. You know he’ll be coming in with a stout car again, you know he can wheel the heck out of this track, and you know he just may win the race, but he’s burnt you bad all season and he’s becoming untrustworthy for bettors. However, I gotta believe. I’m going to give him one more shot and take advantage of bookmakers turning on him where I can get solid prices on all matchups and maybe even some odds to win prices.
The other odds to win and matchup prices I’ll be looking for involve the Childress cars who were about as solid at Phoenix as Hendrick was at Talladega last week. Clint Bowyer will be a driver I look for in all matchups against anyone. Jeff Burton will be a key also in all matchups. Not only is the No. 31 car running well, but he’s the active leader in career laps led at his home state track.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #5 Kyle Busch (12/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (15/1)
3) #9 Kasey Kahne (13/1)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
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