1. #1
    onlooker
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    NASCAR - Subway Fresh 500 Preview/Odds/Thoughts

    Location: Phoenix International Raceway
    Time: Saturday 8:00PM EST / 7:00PM CST / 5:00PM PST
    2005 Pole Winner: Jeff Gordon #24
    2005 Winner: Kurt Busch #2

    Though Phoenix International Raceway doesn’t evoke volumes of motor sports history like a Daytona or Darlington might for some aficionados, the track has a special place for many of today’s top drivers because the track is part of their maturation in motor sports and where some learned to race.

    As we get further away from the thought of NASCAR being just a “Southern thing” and more into NASCAR just being a fun sport that children from all over aspire to be part of, we start to realize that we have quite a few drivers that are being born and growing up West of the Mississippi.

    If a question were to be posed ten years ago asking what state had more regular Cup drivers, North Carolina or California, the answer would have been simple. In today’s NASCAR, California is the leader. Staples of NASCAR statehood like Virginia are now being caught by the likes of Washington state and Nevada as the leaders in producing NASCAR drivers.

    P.I.R. has been running consecutively in the Cup series since 1988. It is a unique configuration which makes it a very welcome sight in this age of diluted dull tracks. Last season, Phoenix had their first year with two Cup dates, and rightfully so.

    As we see more and more new drivers come up through the ranks, we start to see where these newer tracks from the recent past are now older than the drivers. P.I.R. has been around for a short time but has been there from the start for many drivers in various USAC Sprint car events. Drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, and J.J. Yeley made names for themselves at P.I.R. before NASCAR entered their minds.

    For others, NASCAR was always on their mind and they traveled up the ladder to the top with Phoenix being a stop driving anything from modified, pro stock, to Legends. Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Ron Hornaday, Carl Edwards, Kurt, and Kyle Busch all made pit stops in Phoenix along the way to their successes.

    That is quite a lengthy list of top name drivers.

    Kasey Kahne may be the hottest name right now in NASCAR. Kahne has led the Dodge Charge with two of the three wins they have on the season. The three victories by Dodge this season equals what they did all last season. Currently, Dodge trails in the Manufacturers Championship race by two points.

    Kahne isn’t only winning the hearts of Dodge and NASCAR fans across the country but he’s also gaining a tremendous amount of respect from his peers in the garages.

    “He’s a talented kid,” said Stewart, who finished second when Kahne won his first series race last May at Richmond and also third to him last week in Texas. “He’s one of those guys that when you explain something to him, he does a lot more listening than he does talking, and that’s hard to find with guys that are really competitive.”

    Another young driver, Las Vegan Kyle Busch, has received the opposite treatment from Stewart. Busch has been in Stewart’s doghouse for his first two Cup seasons and can’t seem to catch a break from him, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the sport. Busch won the fall Phoenix race last season in what became a bit of irony due to the fact that his brother, Kurt, who had won the spring Phoenix race, was suspended for the final two races by Roush Racing for reckless driving. In yet another piece of irony and twist to the story, Kyle got pulled over last week in Richmond while testing for reckless driving. Alcohol and speeding weren’t cited as reasons for the ticket. This will go a long way in developing the brothers’ image to NASCAR Nation.

    Kyle Busch has a 4.5 average finish in his two races at Phoenix International Raceway, the best of all drivers. He has a knack for the track and his team, Hendrick Motor Sports, also has an edge.

    Teammate Jeff Gordon has the best overall average finish among all drivers that have more than two starts. However, it remains one of the few tracks that Gordon has never won on. There are currently four racks that Gordon has never won on currently in the Cup series. He’s 0 for 11 at Texas, 0 for 14 at phoenix, 0 for 5 at Chicagoland, and 0 for 6 at Miami. Gordon has won on 20 of the 24 Cup tracks he’s raced on. Two of them, Rockingham and North Wilkesboro, are no longer on the circuit.

    Jimmie Johnson has never won at Phoenix either, but does have a second place finish and has finished no worse than 15th in five races.

    Kurt Busch has four straight top 10 finishes, the longest such Phoenix streak in the series. Had he raced in the fall race, he would have surely been in the top five just because of the winning chassis that he brought with him. Busch swept the 2004 season at New Hampshire with a dominant car, the same one used at Phoenix in the spring last year. The two tracks are very similar in set up requirements and teams often take the same cars to each if success is found at Phoenix or New Hampshire.

    Obviously, things are different for Busch this year since he’s driving the Miller Lite Dodge, and not the Roush machine. Busch likes the track and will run decent, but don’t expect too much from Busch this year on any track other than short tracks.

    The team Busch used to drive for just had a major shakeup. Jamie McMurray and the former Kurt Busch team have been terrible and the Cat in the Hat had seen enough. Roush changed crew chiefs for both McMurray and Carl Edwards in attempt to salvage something for each in 2006. Edwards should be okay, but it could be a long year for McMurray.

    Greg Biffle has been just as bad as his teammate Carl Edwards this year. Biffle led the most laps in the fall race last season but couldn’t get past Kyle Busch down the stretch and settled for second. Some have said that Biffle is just running his car into the ground too quick and not saving anything for late. He gets out to these huge leads and dominates for the early stages and then nothing is left late. This is in complete contrast to what they did last season when he was able to finish.

    Mark Martin won his only Phoenix race back in 1993 and is one of only three active drivers to have raced in every Phoenix Cup race. Dale Jarrett and Ken Schrader are the other two. Martin 13 top 10 finishes over his steady career, more than any other driver at Phoenix.

    Three of the last four Phoenix races have been won by a Chevrolet led by Dale Earnhardt Jr who won in 2003 and 2004. Junior will be a factor again this week and should be expected to have a top 5 finish.

    Kevin Harvick is one of the hottest drivers on the circuit right now. He has made a steady climb in the standings over the past three races, moving all the way from 23rd to ninth during that period. His fifth-place showing at Texas marked his third straight top-10 finish. Look for both Harvick and teammate Jeff Burton to have strong races this week.

    Burton joins Dale Jr. and Davey Allison as the only back to back winners in Phoenix history. When Burton was driving for Roush Racing at the time, it should come as no surprise that Burton also dominated New Hampshire as well. From 1997 to 2000, Burton won a race each year at New Hampshire and in 2000 and 2001, Burton took the Phoenix checkers.

    The Phoenix-New Hampshire correlation is strong. Both are mile tracks with slight banking. The configuration of each is different but required set ups for cars are the same. Drivers that have done consistently well recently at both tracks are Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, and Matt Kenseth.

    On of the amazing stats over the entire life span of Cup racing in Phoenix is that not one driver has ever won a race from the pole position. Kasey Kahne who just won his second race of the season, and third of his career, has won all three of his career Cup races from the pole. Four of the last five phoenix winners have been won from outside the top 10 starting position.

    We’re going to look at Tony Stewart this week as the driver to key on. He had success in both New Hampshire races last year, winning one and second in the other, and he also did well at Phoenix with a fourth place finish in his last race there. He is a past winner at Phoenix, but it’s been a long time. His last win there was his rookie year of 1999. Of all the drivers participating, he has the most diverse experience on the track going from USAC, to the Indy Racing League, to NASCAR. Mix in the fact that the best car set up for this track, the one Kurt Busch drove, is in the midst of turmoil and an operation change.

  2. #2
    onlooker
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    Subway Fresh 500 starting grid.
    Code:
    1	5	Kyle Busch	    Chevrolet	
    2	16	Greg Biffle	    Ford	
    3	20	Tony Stewart	    Chevrolet	
    4	17	Matt Kenseth	    Ford	
    5	99	Carl Edwards	    Ford	
    6	11	Denny Hamlin*	    Chevrolet	
    7	2	Kurt Busch	    Dodge	
    8	07	Clint Bowyer*	    Chevrolet	
    9	1	Martin Truex Jr.*  Chevrolet	
    10	48	Jimmie Johnson	    Chevrolet	
    11	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet	
    12	42	Casey Mears	    Dodge	
    13	12	Ryan Newman	    Dodge	
    14	25	Brian Vickers      Chevrolet
    15	29	Kevin Harvick	    Chevrolet
    16	14	Sterling Marlin    Chevrolet	
    17	88	Dale Jarrett	    Ford	
    18	6	Mark Martin	    Ford	
    19	24	Jeff Gordon	    Chevrolet	
    20	38	Elliott Sadler	    Ford	
    21	43	Bobby Labonte	    Dodge
    22	9	Kasey Kahne	    Dodge
    23	66	Jeff Green	    Chevrolet	
    24	10	Scott Riggs	    Dodge	
    25	7	Robby Gordon	    Chevrolet	
    26	26	Jamie McMurray	    Ford
    27	21	Ken Schrader	    Ford	
    28	19	Jeremy Mayfield    Dodge
    29	40	David Stremme*	    Dodge	
    30	18	J.J. Yeley*	    Chevrolet	
    31	178	Kenny Wallace	    Chevrolet
    32	01	Joe Nemechek	    Chevrolet
    33	4	Scott Wimmer	    Chevrolet	
    34	41	Reed Sorenson*	    Dodge	
    35	95	Stanton Barrett    Chevrolet
    36	96	Tony Raines	    Chevrolet	
    37	31	Jeff Burton	    Chevrolet
    38	45	Kyle Petty	    Dodge	
    39	32	Travis Kvapil	    Chevrolet	
    40	102	Brandon Ash	    Dodge	
    41	22	Dave Blaney	    Dodge	
    42	55	Michael Waltrip   Dodge
    43	49	Brent Sherman*	    Dodge

  3. #3
    onlooker
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    Here are my starting five for my stockcar challenge:

    Code:
    Jimmie Johnson     #48
    Jeff Gordon        #24
    Kyle Busch         #5
    Dale Earnhardt Jr. #8
    Sterling Marlin    #14

  4. #4
    onlooker
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    Here re the Odds for each driver to win the race tonight.
    Pinnacle:
    Code:
    Subway Fresh 500: Odds to Win the Race
          Sat 4/22      05:20 PM		
            1 Dale Earnhardt Jr      +1049
      	2 Kurt Busch 	         +885
      	3 Matt Kenseth 	         +1000
      	4 Tony Stewart 	         +972
      	5 Greg Biffle 	         +602
      	6 Jeff Gordon 	         +1707
      	7 Jimmie Johnson 	 +924
      	8 Kyle Busch 	         +827
      	9 Kasey Kahne 	         +2415
      	10 Carl Edwards 	 +1660
      	11 Jeff Burton 	         +5000
      	12 Mark Martin 	         +2071
      	13 Kevin Harvick 	 +1707
      	14 Ryan Newman 	         +3770
      	15 Denny Hamlin 	 +3737
      	16 Jamie McMurray 	 +2353
      	17 Bobby Labonte 	 +5000
      	18 Elliott Sadler 	 +8000
      	19 Scott Riggs 	         +8000
      	20 Casey Mears 	         +5500
      	21 Brian Vickers 	 +2828
      	22 J.J Yeley 	         +12500
      	23 Martin Truex Jr.      +6800
      	24 Robby Gordon 	 +10000
      	25 Dale Jarrett 	 +10000
      	26 Joe Nemechek 	 +12500
      	27 Jeremy Mayfield 	 +12500
      	28 Reed Sorenson 	 +12500
      	29 Clint Boyer 	         +11000
      	30 Field 	         +8000

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