Thatguy's NRL Plays

benrama · 03-07-13, 01:39 AM

Haha Peptides on the forum now as well! Sharks supporter?!

Pumped for start of NRL, good to see some new cappers too. I've had a model in waiting for 2 years now, can't find the time to complete it. Only use it after round 4 in any case so lets see ...

Love the over to tonight too, I think this one hits 44 plus.

BOL TG and all.

kingsr · 03-07-13, 02:37 AM

Hello and GL everybody! The off season has been too long!

Donkey · 03-07-13, 03:37 AM

gl, need rabbits -4/total over 40.5 to win a $500 multi. not going to bother hedging

Coopertrooper · 03-07-13, 03:41 AM

Yikes, got to be early on these plays, the smart money has followed this one and it has already moved to 42.5! The Vic tote has it at intervals, and the 40.5 is much lower at $1.75. Think it might be better to try on 41-50 ($3) and 51-60 ($5) and risk anything above 61.

Lets get off to a good start!

benandjerry · 03-07-13, 03:48 AM

Good to have some NRL again, GL this upcoming season TG!

benandjerry · 03-07-13, 06:03 AM

That was a brutal tease at the end...

Bazz27 · 03-07-13, 06:22 AM

i bought 2 pts in a teaser for O/36.5

benrama · 03-07-13, 07:38 AM

I think that makes about 10 seasons in a row for me losing the first pick of the season!

Under was the right call here having watched the game, lots of rust and sloppy play. Still nearly got lucky but I think I'll be looking to only play unders for the first few rounds.

Particularly liking the unders in the Storm, Sharks and Knights home games.

That Guy · 03-07-13, 01:50 PM

updated: NRL Season 2013 0-0-1 -1
Round 1 0-1

Would have been nice to post a winner for play 1 but you get that. Unfortunate that the Roosters were denied on so many occasions and we were only 0.5 pts away from cashing it.. Just a reminder that the early rounds are no place to be throwing around multiple unit plays.
We move on!

hawley · 03-07-13, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by That Guy

updated: NRL Season 2013 0-0-1 -1
Round 1 0-1

Would have been nice to post a winner for play 1 but you get that. Unfortunate that the Roosters were denied on so many occasions and we were only 0.5 pts away from cashing it.. Just a reminder that the early rounds are no place to be throwing around multiple unit plays.
We move on!

Rough one to start.

Maloney should be able to convert from near the sticks.

brettels · 03-07-13, 08:30 PM

Lets get the Broncos vs Sea Eagles convo going!!

I like the broncos to open the season with a win at home and also i think that Scott Prince will be a better player with a better team.

Broncos FTW

That Guy · 03-07-13, 11:27 PM

NRL Season 2013 0-0-1 -1
Round 1 0-1

Play #2
Broncos vs Sea Eagles UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Apart from Storm vs Sea Eagles these two sides have the lowest avg total points of any team matchups. Add in the chance of a few showers tonight and a very rusty pre-season for both sides.. looks like we're in for a low scoring game. Both teams should be happy to let this one grind away for the most part. Have the total at 32pts on the model but stats for goal kicking in the early part of the season are always at much lower percentage. Rolling 1x on the UNDER for this one. GL

Play #3
Broncos -4 vs Sea Eagles 1x 1.95
I know.. it's a square play but just can't go past the Broncos for this game. King & Stewart missing for the Sea Eagles is a huge blow and they'll have plenty of newcomers to blood tonight. Brisbane should have a significant edge in the forwards and added sting in attack off the boot of Scott Prince.. while it'll take a while for the new combination to gel, they should get the job done and model has them ontop by 8 points. Hate playing the total & team double but have to pull the trigger on Broncos who look the goods at home even if the past record indicates an advantage to the Sea Eagles. Rolling Broncos -4 for this one. GL

sonofben · 03-08-13, 01:24 AM

Total moved to 38.5 and Broncos are now -4.5.
I like this play alot so I went heavy on the double Total Under 38.5/Broncos -4.5 @3.65
GL

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-08-13, 02:40 AM

I like OVER in this game

That Guy · 03-08-13, 05:58 AM

Wow. No sure how that UNDER held up but glad it did.
Not playing sides UFN - tonight was a reminder of why the early rounds are risky.

That Guy · 03-08-13, 04:42 PM

updated: NRL Season 2013 1-0-2 -1.05
Round 1 1-2

Play #4
Eels vs Warriors OVER 42 1x 1.95
If a game is headed OVER on round 1 then this is it. Despite UNDERS being all the rage, the total for this match up has held steady at 42pts. Warriors and Eels points against stats are absolutely atrocious and the pre-season has hinted at more easy points for both teams. A score line of 32-22 or similar is not out of question. Both these sides know how to let in easy points and we should expect to see a sloppy start.
Hitting the OVER 42pts at 1x. 1.95. GL

brettels · 03-08-13, 05:09 PM

Was lucky broncos led at half time, got my money back

On the cowboys straight up today!

hawley · 03-08-13, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by brettels

Was lucky broncos led at half time, got my money back

On the cowboys straight up today!

On the Cowboys too.

GL

benrama · 03-09-13, 12:03 AM

I remember the cowboys last year in round 1 against Titans - quite possibly the worst game of top grade rugby league played by a team in history. I'd be on them too otherwise

hawley · 03-09-13, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by benrama

I remember the cowboys last year in round 1 against Titans - quite possibly the worst game of top grade rugby league played by a team in history. I'd be on them too otherwise

Titans help them scoreless yea?

I remember all too clearly.

ExodusNZ · 03-09-13, 03:15 AM

Very nice second half - The warriors were useless tonight

ExodusNZ · 03-09-13, 03:18 AM

This should still be a good match, even with all the missing players

That Guy · 03-09-13, 11:00 AM

updated: NRL Season 2013 2-0-2 -0.10
Round 1 2-2
Great to hit the OVER on NZ game

Heading in the right direction!
More plays to come soon for tonight's games.

That Guy · 03-09-13, 05:06 PM

NRL Season 2013 1-0-2 -1.05
Round 1 1-2

Play #4
Panthers vs Raiders OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Expecting the Raiders to fire up for this match and start off the stronger side. The new faces in these sides like Brown and Naiqama should speed things up. Expecting an entertaining clash and one where both teams throw the ball around. Conditions in Penrith are also expected to be favourable to the OVER. Rolling on it 1x 1.95. GL

ultrasouth · 03-09-13, 05:44 PM

Which book did you get 40.5 ? I can only see 42.5

That Guy · 03-09-13, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by ultrasouth

Which book did you get 40.5 ? I can only see 42.5

Got it last night at Bet365. I think 42.5 is also a play..

fitguy67 · 03-09-13, 08:45 PM

Anybody here ever use WillHill for placing a NRL bet...(I generally use b365 or pinny...but thot i'd chek it as an additional out)...

-->problem is, i just can't seem to find the basic "Over/Under Total" bet at Willy...they've got the ML, spreads, and all sorts of props like b365...BUT the basic O/U bet seems to be located somewhere i just can't find...

ANYone else here place NRL bets at Willy...can help point a bro in the right direction...would be appreciated much

ultrasouth · 03-09-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by That Guy

Got it last night at Bet365. I think 42.5 is also a play..

Ok thanx good luck on your play today

That Guy · 03-09-13, 09:43 PM

added:

Play #5
Storm vs Dragons UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
We have the best defensive side in the comp last year (Storm) up against a side that lacks sting in attack. Storm showed in the UK against Leeds that their defense is still up to scratch. At home they should slowly grind down the Dragons and I'd expect a total around 32pts. The UNDER plays for the Storm last year hit pretty solidly and were very reliable.
Rolling 1x on Strom vs Dragons UNDER. GL

swordsandtequila · 03-09-13, 10:14 PM

Good luck to you this year, I jumped on late last season, enjoy your analysis (and winners!). I can number crunch, but couldn't pretend to tell you about the teams/players so it's much appreciated. Came back to the thread late so will probably jump back in next week. Hit 'em hard.

That Guy · 03-09-13, 11:49 PM

adding:

Play #6
Sharks vs Titans UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Hot conditions, questionable motivation from the Sharks and a history of low scores between these sides. Titans also look considerably weaker and the potential for less points has increased.
Rolling 1x UNDER 38.5. GL

MrXYZ · 03-10-13, 05:19 AM

Nice hit on Panthers/Raiders TG. Unbelievable finish to cash the over.

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-10-13, 06:53 AM

I'm sitting on 2 from 7 in my tips for round 1 - results all over the shop.

Unlucky on the Storm game, but Sharkies cahsed easy.

That Guy · 03-10-13, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

I'm sitting on 2 from 7 in my tips for round 1 - results all over the shop.

Unlucky on the Storm game, but Sharkies cahsed easy.

Picking sides in Round 1 has been almost impossible.. would have put my house on Raiders & Titans for a win. Luckily that didn't happen.
GL this year TGM! keep grinding away

That Guy · 03-10-13, 09:33 AM

updated: NRL Season 2013 4-0-3 +0.80
Round 1 4-3

Finally grinding into positive territory despite taking a hit on the woeful Dragons defense against the Storm who look very strong again this year.
1 more play to come.. hopefully push us closer to 2units profit for Round 1. GL