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Tennis Thread: Week of 4.21
Horrible end to last week's tennis betting, hopefully this week will be more consistent with winners.
**Most of these start during the middle of the night in case anyone is interested**
4.21 MONTE CARLO (Surface: Clay)
Minar +180 over Ancic
Kohlschreiber +105 over Acasuso
Tipsarevic +145 over Mathieu
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-20-08 at 11:02 PM. Reason: Changed 1st Match
What sites have the best tennis lines, bookmaker deals 15 cent lines and matchbook has virtually no offers up on tennis
Dunno about the lines. I use Bookmaker exclusively for everything, so I'm stuck with them.
Kohlschreiber, Tipsarevic win
Minar loses
2-1 +1.50 units
Tennis is a very difficult sport to find matches competitively price. Most books report that tennis is not a profitable sport for them so they 1) either don't offer the lines (i.e. betjm) or 2) have ridiculous lines > 30 cents or 3) severely limit how much you can get down (which may or may not be relevant to you and 4) not to mention, tennis is mired in several gambling scandals which have made books increasingly cautious.Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
Most of the solid tennis books are European and are restricted to non-Americans players. Also, Pinnacle is great for tennis. Then again, Pinnacle is great for everything. Pretty much if you have a Pinnacle account, you'll being the best line about 85-90% of the time.
The general consensus is that 5dimes is the best tennis book for Americans. After that, you'll have to shop around. Surprisigly, BoDog is somewhat competitive with their tennis lines. There are some sites that have real high juice, but you'll usually find some lines out of whack if you look hard enough.
Good luck....
I was with you on Minar today EP...not much of a performance he put. However, I played some heavy favorites in JCF, Volandri, and Ljubicic.
Typically, I don't play big favorites except in the 1st round where there are some major mismatches. JCF got beat in the 1st rd but after that it was smooth sailing for him (6-7, 6-1, 6-1) and Volandri and Ljubicic had what amounted to exhibition games it seemed. Fortunately, for whatever reason, my book did not have a line up on Moya/Querrey match....I probably would have considered Moya very seriously.
Sorry, but If Moya loses to Querrey on clay, it's safe to say that Moya's career is just about done.
Moya lost.
The only way I take big faves in opening rounds is to parlay them together, maybe 3 or so ... but even that can bite you. Much better playing individual matches for me. Big key I think is not to bite too much on big chalk after the 1st round as upsets seem inevitable.
I think after the 2nd rd, if you play every dog you'll probably come out ahead...
Yeah good point BB. There's definitely no point laying -200 on one of these smaller tournies in the championships or semis ... see James Blake yesterday & Elena Dementieva in the semis of the Family Circle.
Lines up early for tomorrow, so let's roll. Remember matches start around 4am ET, so make your bets before you go to sleep!
4.22 MONTE CARLO: (Surface Clay)
Robredo -150 over Wawrinka
Ramirez-Hidalgo +170 over Simon
Bolelli +120 over Chela
+1000 for Lisnard over Almagro who choked in Valencia last week might be something to put a couple bucks on just for fun because Almagro could have a hangover from that match even though Lisnard isn't a force by any means.
I just made my next 3 plays for Monte Carlo myself. I wanted to make a play on Robredo but just can't pull the trigger. Something is not right with that line IMO. To me, he should have opened a much bigger favorite against the #2 Swiss since this match is on clay, a surface he has done pretty well on. Wawrinka has a good all court game and has a pretty decent serve and I expect him to be very competitive. I see this match going 3 sets.
I took a shot with Seppi +120, Murray -189, Grossjean -227 (big on this one...Karlovic is injured these days and is very very weak on clay. His strong serve should be negated on clay and if he does not have his serve, he has next to nothing).
Good luck EP.....
Last edited by BuddyBear; 04-21-08 at 05:35 PM.
Yeah chalk seems pretty good for most of the top dogs here. I think Robredo is lower because he's only got last week's clay matches in his pocket as "form" and even then, he beat Starace who was injured or uninterested and quit and then he got beat down by Ferrer after winning a set. My take is the books don't think much of what he did last week and his form prior wasn't good. I agree with that Grossjean pick, just can't do that much chalk that much on one pick for me though. Thought about Seppi as well, but couldn't talk myself into it in the end. GL!
wow guess we both did pretty well for ourselves today EP.
Just woke up to see that Seppi won, Murray is winning, and that Grossjean retired down 4-1 in the 3rd set....i was actually a little concerned that Karlovic might retire and cost me a win. Guess I read that one wrong and got a little bit lucky...then again, if SG had been healthy he probably should handle him pretty easily. Oh well.....
5-0 for us combined! Let's keep it up....
Yep yep! Yeah the Grossjean match is precisely why I can't lay chalk over -200.
Robredo, Bolelli, Ramirez-Hidalgo win
3-0 +3.90 units
4.23 MONTE CARLO (Surface: Clay)
Vliegen +240 over Gasquet
Lapennti +145 over Tipsarevic
Treading light tomorrow. Lots of big chalk and match-ups that just don't look intriguing from a wagering stand point.
Agreed, seems like a lot of matches that are worth passing today. I don't think I'll get involved with both those mathches you've made plays on EP. I think Gasquet wins in straight sets despite the fact that I don't care much for him and don't think he is a top 10 player. I think Tipsarevic will have his hand full tonight, but will survive and advance.
I haven't really even looked over the card for tomorrow yet but I do remember seeing a lot of guys laying some heavy chalk...even too heavy for my taste. I will lay the wood in tennis, not so much in baseball but tennis is a different animal.
I do remember seeing Monfils as less than -200 so I may play that....
GL bro....
P.S. Pitt came through for us today!
Nice call on Monfils. He was -200 at my book and that's still too much for me. Hoping Vliegen can come through here to give me a little profit. Looks like Lapennti had a shot, but blew it in the 2nd set.
Big chalk wins today. Hence treading lightly.
Two losers today
0-2 -2.00 units
Well hopefully Wednesday wasn't the beginning of another mid-to-late week slump like last week, so let's get back on track Thursday with at least one winner here and a profit!
4.24 MONTE CARLO (Surface: Clay)
Kohlschreiber +190
Andreev +185
Week's Total 2 Date: 5-3 +3.40 units
Andreev wins
Kohlschreiber disappoints after being up a set
1-1 +0.85 units
Trying to continue with a strong finish ... + units is what we want!
4.25 MONTE CARLO (Surface:Clay)
Andreev +170 over Davydenko
Federer -115 over Nalbandian
If you're adventuresome, David Ferrer is +400 against Nadal. Outstanding price for Ferrer even though Nadal has beaten him the past two times on clay .... DF has beaten him twice in a row, on carpet & hard court in '07. Worth a look for a small play I think.
Taking a shot with Ferrer at +500. GL on your plays.
And just because it's astronomical and probably astrologically impossible ... Querrey + Ferrer in a parlay ...
* Risking:
* $2.13
* To Win:
* $119.28
* (MU)
* 04/25/08 @ 4:30 AM
* [4006] DAVID FERRER
* +500
* Remove
* (MU)
* 04/25/08 @ 6:00 AM
* [4007] SAM QUERREY
* +850
* Remove
LoL
Straight shit baby, but for $2 who cares
Awesome. Yeah for a couple bucks it's no big deal if it doesn't hit, but worth a shot. I may put $5 on it since that's the minimum wager at my book. GL.
Yeah why the F not. I put down a little on Querrey yesterday against Gasquet even thought that was "unlikely" and it helped recoup some of the other loss.
nice job with Andreev. I really thought Almagro would win that one.
I actually really like Nalbandian in this matchup. I will be making a play on him shortly. Good luck....
Another split. Broke even.
Andreev losing a tough 3 setter (7-5 in the 3rd)
Federer dominates the last 2 sets to beat Nalbandian
1-1 0.00 units
Week 2-Date: 7-5 +4.25 units
I might be done for the week unless one of the semis provides a quality dog price.
Nice call EP...keep up the good work!
I can't believe i bet against Federer as a dog. Just a dumb bet on my part...i got caught up in all the talk that he is finished. How naive of me. I am sure I'll have ample opportunities to see Federer at + odds or < -120 in his prime....yeah right. I watched the entire match and Federer was in complete control the entire way. Damn, I am pissed!
Oh don't worry, Federer will be a dog to Djokovic I am sure...
Not sure what I think about his chances vs. Djokovic, but the price as you say could be right. Nadal is killing Ferrer in the first, 4-1.
4.26 MONTE CARLO: (Surface: Clay)
Federer +105
Federer's opponent is a total JOKEavich, put your money on Federer +105 and enjoy the free money.
Djokovic retired but the only thing preventing him from being the best player in the world is his health right now. You will win 9+ grand slams in his career.
Good match tomorrow. Lean very strongly toward Nadal tomorrow - anything < 230
Yeah I see Nadal at -235 ... I'll wait and see if my book has prices for # of sets as that will present better value. Nadal should win in 2 I think.
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