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Hey Morino next game in just over 3 hours.
You see that line jump this morning?
Did you get double digits? There was value up there and I wouldn't be surprised if this line goes from 9 to 8.5 and/or lower.
That was a huge reaction and there's boung to be some pullback to bring it back down.
I bet this game 2 hours ago and see now the line has moved to 5, I will of course grade the bet at the line I posted the bet at
the best play in that game imo is the under
Seattle plays fast and they don’t have any interior defense with Howard gone, I’m not betting unders in Seattle gamesOriginally Posted by carolinakid
so this is going way under
Faders take the +4.5 (+100) here and Morino's play will be at -110.
Because I am a nice guy.
Good Luck.
Tell it to someone who cares you lie all the time about your bets, that's why I was assigned this thread.
Because of that you are paranoid and make posts like this one I quoted.
Here the numbers from an actual capper, me.
These are simple early season numbers still and I would expect many to come to the near exact same conclusions as my stacking forecast. The public gauge not so much as it is beyond the scope of everyone here.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 13-Jun SEA 80 78 CON 80 80 WAS 84 85 86 ATL 81 83 NY 79 77 PHO 85 85 DAL 77 78 82 LV 88 89 90
Faders take the +4.5 (+100) here and Morino's play will be at -110.
Because I am a nice guy.
Good Luck.
Tell it to someone who cares you lie all the time about your bets, that's why I was assigned this thread.
Because of that you are paranoid and make posts like this one I quoted.
Bipolar boy is angry today I see.Here the numbers from an actual capper, me.
These are simple early season numbers still and I would expect many to come to the near exact same conclusions as my stacking forecast. The public gauge not so much as it is beyond the scope of everyone here.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 13-Jun SEA 80 78 CON 80 80 WAS 84 85 86 ATL 81 83 NY 79 77 PHO 85 85 DAL 77 78 82 LV 88 89 90
Dumb shits.
1st half went under the 78 so far
Yeah the sun are down a key player.
Sea opening the early can of whoop ass too. It's up to them what happens from here.
This is a typo, obviously.
Faders will get -4.5 (-107)
My bad, y'all.
You are a dumb shit
Again a basic forecast with the stacking percentages forecast and I would suspect many others to come to very similar if not the same numbers.
The public gauge is a different story.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 15-Jun SEA 91 91 IND 71 72 77 CHI 79 78 MIN 80 84 NY 75 77 LV 92 91
I'd like to see a modicum of intelligence, as well as interest from some at SBR here. There are many things I can teach and elemtary handicapping using the WNBA is a great thing to start for those who want to learn.
3 games today anyone watching these markets? Volume from my contacts are all very light, across the spectrum of markets.
The bettors can not get enough of Seattle here and that line has grown to 15.5.
Notice the 20 point stacking forcast and the 14 point public gauge. That early line of -12 at BOL had no chance of holding.
Books have been happily taking the bets on Seattle but they have shown us movement.
Seattle a very popular bet tonight, for a WNBA game.
The betting public is starting to like the amount of data being accumulated and sharper money will be entering the picture here. I, for one, welcome it. It also might represent the Faders in this thread coming back and Morono will get outpaced by actual bettors.
I don’t know what does the statistics are on a big favorite 10 or more in the WNBA
Static stats like that are only so useful, we will learn in this thread about weighting more recent time periods differently, I think.
Anyway, it's not good, Gold. The favorites win those about 44.5 % of the time over about 15 years of data including the Seattle cover tonight.
But there was a recent bad year of that, so to speak, and we really could be seeing the market shift. I do expect the big favorites to cover more this year and expect them to be profitable by overall being closer to even instead of sharply biased toward the underdog. The profit comes in trading. There are multi-decade factors at play here Gold.
Could be a market bottom as the books are less apt to make the line so big in the face of the larger Forecasts. In fact, for years, the larger spread forecasts were notoriously terrible when predicitng the favorite.
There have been periods of drastic losses followed by a more sideways vig grind for the bettor who's bet the big favorites to cover over the last couple of decades.
Here's what it's looked like over the past 10 years for spreads of -10 or more, covering 318 plays....
The two big favorites covered yesterday.
We are still in a relatively simple data crunching phase for any season. The stacking forecast is still failry basic and I would expect many others to come to the same or similar numbers.
Either way, LA is getting more credit in forecasting than the line shows.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 16-Jun PHO 80 75 LA 79 80 78
Same story, same level of sophistication...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 17-Jun ATL 82 81 WAS 84 87 SEA 89 90 IND 71 75 MIN 83 81 DAL 81 86 CON 76 79 CHI 83 75 NY 74 78 LV 91 92
Same story, but getting sharper here.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 18-Jun PHO 80 76 LA 81 79
Public likes LA here, I'm actually thinking of countering the line move with PHO on the spread.
It's on my radar.
Here's my record so far in the thread...
Date Play 1 Unit per bet 665 24-May DAL +1.5 (-112) -1 NY +1.5 (-115) LIVE 0.87 652 25-May CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113) -1 662 28-May MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107) 0.93 Total -0.2
As everyone knows, I'm a grinder.
I'm just waiting for the market to settle a little bit then we'll see about running a WNBA campaign.
Does anyone have any opinion on Connecticut Sun (+7.5) @ Chicago Sky ?
Mainly does Connecticut have any chances to win ?
Thank you
I don't really like Con to win that game. In fact I kind of like CHI to cover there, but it's no bet for me.
Smae story here with the numbers, many should be able to come to the Stacking Forecast conclusions, they aren't very complex right now, I would expect others to have the same or similar numbers.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 19-Jun CON 74 79 CHI 84 76 IND 78 78 WASH 86 88 MIN 84 82 DAL 80 86
Notice I have the public gauge with Connecticut winning but the stacking forecast has Chicago.
I think the public gauge and sentiment is wrong here.
I think.
What are the best sportsbooks to use that post lines early and take 1st quarter and 1st half totals before they are ironed out? I didnt know this thread was here. I may go back and read it all....
The Sun have been complete trash without Jones, Inwouldnt bet gem or bet over in Sun games Jones isn’t playing, they can’t score
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 19-Jun CON 74 79 CHI 84 76
Chicago with the 10 point win ended making the opinion of the stacking forecast correct here over the public gauge.
To be fair, the opposite happend when Dallas beat Minn by 18 points.
MIN 84 82 DAL 80 86
Here are the numbers...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 20-Jun NY 77 75 LA 84 82
Both Forecasts have a 7 point LA win and from the market perspective it seems the bettors in general, what few there are, have put more pressure on the NY moneyline than anything else and that has caused the market to drop.
What do the bettor's know?
I recognize the risk here with two units on one team but both qualify for me here and I picked up...
612 20-Jun LA -2.5 (-109) 612 LA -150
Good Luck.
HAWT!!!!
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