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Best bets for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town ⛳
Best bets for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town
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PGA Tour golf is back, coming off of an exciting week and a one-hole playoff win by Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Now, the Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.
Which players are good bets?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for the RBC Heritage.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Rory McIlroy (12-1) and (-137 to finish top 20 at DraftKings)
Kezirian: Should we consider this a blind bet at 12-1? Yes, McIlroy struggled on Sunday, but that's probably why we are getting double-digit odds here. He typically crushes Pete Dye courses, and he is still in great form. I think a play at 12-1 for the world's top golfer makes sense, and I am OK laying juice for him to finish in the top 20.
Justin Thomas (16-1)
Fallica: I'm backing JT again this week after he seemingly couldn't make a putt on Sunday despite a bunch of very good-looking ones that just burned the hole. He had numerous opportunities to post scores, but it just didn't happen. One would have to expect that to change this week. Thomas hasn't played the event since 2016, but he posted a T-11 his first time playing here in 2015. I'd be surprised if at least another top 10 isn't in the cards this week for a player who leads the PGA Tour in birdie average.
Collin Morikawa (22-1; +550 to finish top 5)
Bearman: OK, OK, a day late and many dollars short here. I did attempt to grab Morikawa at +930 after the first hole on Sunday before a good approach moved the odds on me. This will be his first shot at Harbour Town; but it also was his first appearance at the Colonial last week -- and he was a few really short putts away on the 72nd and 73rd holes from his second PGA Tour win. You have to like the way he looked all weekend and hope that the pressure-filled misses will make him tougher this week. Morikawa ranks fourth on tour with shots gained on approach, and he hit 83% of greens last week, both of which might very well be the defining stats this week at Harbour Town, what with it small greens and emphasis on shot-making. Add eighth in shots gained tee to green and 17th shots gained overall and you have someone who very easily could be lifting the trophy this week. He has now made the cut in his first 21 events as a professional, the longest streak on tour since a guy named Tiger Woods. The last time Morikawa was runner-up (at last year's 3M Open), he came back for a T-4 at John Deere and then won the next event. I am using Morikawa all over the board this week.
Webb Simpson (25-1; +200 to finish top 20)
Bearman: If all else fails, try again. I had Simpson across the board last week at Colonial and paid for it with the missed cut. I am chalking it up as a bad Thursday that saw no birdies from the normally good ballstriking Simpson. Looking at Friday's round, Simpson posted some early birdies and an eagle and was on his way to the weekend before a double-bogey on the third-to-last hole. As noted earlier, Harbour Tour requires shot-making and solid approaches. Even after the ** last week, Simpson's shots gained ranks are 10th (approach), 15th (tee to green) and 10th (total). He is 11th on tour in hitting 71% of his greens, a must this week at the RBC Heritage. His past form here includes 16th, fifth and 11th over the past three years and a runner-up in 2013. If Simpson had made the cut, these odds would be in the teens, so I am taking advantage of an off week and taking the 25-1.
Matt Kuchar (40-1; +400 to finish top 10)
Bearman: It's hard to argue past form at Harbour Town for Kuchar, who has made the cut in his past 15 appearances (only missed in his first appearance in 2003) and has finished in the top 11 in five of the past six years, including a win in 2014 and a runner-up last year. In 24 rounds starting with his win in 2014, he has shot par or better in 20 of them, including two final-round 64s. He missed the cut last week at Colonial for the first time after putting the ball in the water on his approach at the last hole. He was 4-under for the round heading to the last hole and hit a high percentage of greens, setting up well for Harbour Town. Much like Colonial, this course requires good ballstriking and a strong short game, and that's right up this shot shaper's alley. You can only put so much emphasize on pre-coronavirus form, but Kuchar had a T-2 at Genesis and T-22 at WGC Mexico. At 40-1, he is a good ticket to have to win, and with his past success here, +400 on a top 10 is a safe bet.
Kuchar (40-1)
Marks: Kuchar is a Harbour Town wizard. The course is designed precisely for the magic in his bag. The magic needed to win at Heritage: driving accuracy, a great short game, the ability to scramble -- and Kuchar can do it all. He has made 15 of 16 cuts, he has six top 10s, he won here is 2014 and he finished second in 2019. Missing the cut at Colonial last week makes Kuchar rested and ready to roll. I also like Simpson at 25-1.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (45-1) and (+225 to finish top 20 at DK)
Fallica: Fitzpatrick has four top 10s in WGC events, and he won the 2016 DP World Tour Championship, so he has the game to compete with the best players in the world. He also finished in the top 21 in three of the four majors last year. Prior to the break, he finished T-9 at Bay Hill and returned with four rounds in the 60s last week. He isn't going to wow anyone off the tee, but he can make enough putts to hang around. The outright wager is a bit of a dart throw, but I can see him improving on last week's finish and cracking the top 20.
Branden Grace (45-1)
Marks: Grace looked good last week at Colonial until the final round, and he still finished in the top 20. Heritage is home to his first tour win in 2016 -- so why not do it again at a place that fits his iron play and putting to a tee.
Tyrrell Hatton (50-1)
Bearman: Our Stats & Information's Mackenzie Kraemer notes that the past four winners of this event were at least 40-1 to win, and three of the four were much higher: 2016 Branden Grace 40-1, 2017 Wesley Bryan 60-1, 2018 Satoshi Kodaira 250-1 and last year's C.T. Pan at 125-1. So what long shots best fits this weekend?
Hatton would be considered more of a medium shot more than a long shot, but he is the PGA Tour leader in shots gained approach. He had wrist surgery last fall, and all he has done since is finish sixth at the WGC-Mexico and win the Arnold Palmer. He was off last week and is well-rested for a run this week.
Shane Lowry (75-1)
Kezirian: He is ranked 22nd in the world, and he was playing well before the pandemic break with three top-15 finishes in his past four starts. Lowry did miss the cut last weekend, but I am hoping he was just knocking off some rust. Regardless, this course does not necessitate great putting because of its smaller greens. The flat stick is what cost him last weekend, as he lost 5.4 strokes. He also has won a major and a WGC, so he has demonstrated an ability to shine with top names breathing down his neck.
Lowry (75-1; +300 to finish top 20)
Bearman: He finished third here last year, and he is 23rd on tour in shots gained tee to green.
Viktor Hovland (75-1) and (-110 vs. Scottie Scheffler)
Kezirian: Hovland just might be a top-15 player within the next couple of years, so I am happy to grab these kind of odds. He has elite ballstriking, which is ideal for this course that rewards accuracy. He also has improved his short game, working on it after winning in Puerto Rico in February. In fact, the Norwegian broke even on strokes gained last week around the green. He is too good to pass up at 75-1. I'll also take him in a matchup with Scheffler.
Jason Kokrak (75-1) and (+500 to finish top 10 and +225 to finish top 20 at DK)
Fallica: Kokrak has an interesting history at Harbour Town: five top-20 finishes sandwiched around a pair of missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. He enters this week off a 65-64 weekend at Colonial, which resulted in a T-3 finish, and he has had a sneaky decent year (T-8 in a WGC event and T-18 at Bay Hill). He has never won a PGA Tour event, but I think he is worth a little play at 75-1 and certainly worth a look in the top 10/20 markets.
Adam Hadwin (125-1; -150 to make cut)
Bearman: Hadwin is 26th on tour in shots gained on approach and has made cut here in each of his past three appearances.
Emiliano Grillo (250-1) and (+300 to finish top 40 at DK)
Kezirian: This is certainly a long shot, but I am throwing the Hail Mary. He has been awful lately, missing five straight cuts. He is a bad putter, but that is mitigated at this course, and he does have elite iron play. So, yes, I'll take a very small bite on 250-1 and pray for a miracle. But I also think 3-1 to finish top 40 is a solid return for his fit on this course.
Prop bets
McIlroy over Bryson DeChambeau (-135)
Marks: McIlroy's final-round 74 at Colonial was disappointing, but I'm banking on his elite putting on small Bermuda greens to be a much larger factor at Harbour Town than driving the ball 400 yards with "The Hulk" DeChambeau.
Kuchar over Tony Finau (-120)
Marks: I like Kuchar on this course over Finau, whose best club (his driver) will make few appearances.
Kuchar to finish top 20 (+175 at DK)
Fallica: I'm not expecting a Kuchar win this week, but his track record at Harbour Town is too good to ignore. He missed the cut last week at Colonial, but his pre-break form consists of three top 20s, four top 25s and a runner-up. Couple that with a run of win, fifth, T-9, T-11, T-23 and second here at Harbour Town since 2014 and you have a nice little proposition at almost 2-1 on your money for a top-20 finish.
Ryan Moore to finish top 40 (+150 at DK)
Kezirian: Moore typically performs quite well on short courses. He missed the cut last weekend but shot a 66 on Thursday. He has the game. but inconsistency has plagued him (his last win came in 2016), so I will opt for him to compete with a top-40 finish.
DeChambeau to finish top 10 (+175)
Fallica: Two cuts and two top 5s at Harbour Town for DeChambeau, who, like Justin Thomas, very easily could have won last week. DeChambeau has been out of the top 15 once since October, and he has finished T-5, second, fourth and T-3 in his past four events. He is playing too well to expect that not to continue. Maybe he won't win, but I'll take close to 2-1 on a top-10 finish for a player who is fourth on tour in SG: Total.
DeChambeau to miss the cut (+400 at DK)
Marks: DeChambeau's new physique and driving power is not a good fit for Harbour Town. He missed cuts in 2019 and 2017, and I believe he will again this Friday.
Maverick McNealy to finish top 40 (+200 at DK)
Marks: Based on how McNealy played the last three rounds at Colonial and that Heritage demands the same skill set, this is a great value play. Impressive with his irons and a hot putter, McNealy will get this job done. Others I like: Russell Knox (+188 at DK) and Jim Furyk (+138 at DK).
Lowry to finish top 20 (+300 at DK)
Fallica: Last year entering this event, Lowry had missed the cut in three of four stroke-play events and finished 62nd in the other one. It was here where his form turned with a T-3 finish, and he backed that up with three more top 10s in the next five events, capped off by a win in The Open Championship. Lowry again brings shaky form into this week's event after missing the cut last week and posting nothing better than a T-21 finish on tour this year. I'm not backing Lowry to win, but 3-1 on a top-20 finish seems like a fair expectation.
Bud Cauley to finish top 20 (+400 DK)
Marks: He played well last week at Colonial and finished in the top 30. Cauley has made three straight cuts at this event, and he had a top 10-finish in 2017. With a strong iron game and the ability to scramble, I see him moving up at least 10 spots this Sunday. Others I like: Hatton (+175 at DK) and Fitzpatrick (+225 at DK).
Xander Schauffele to finish top 5 (+450 DK)
Marks: The "lip out" is what most will remember from last week at Colonial, but Schauffele was striking the ball really well. If it wasn't for his poor putting, I probably would have him winning this week. I also like Jon Rahm at the same price.
Kevin Streelman to finish top 20 (+500 at DK)
Fallica: Streelman has finished T-6 and T-7 over the past two years at Harbour Town, and he also finished T-3 in 2013. Last year, he entered having finished sixth in the previous event; and this year, in nine events, he has missed six cuts and had a T-45, T-47 and a one runner-up at Pebble Beach. So it's a little bit of a risk to expect a solid week, but the fact he has some good course history here could mean he could sneak into the top 20 in a very good field.
Luke Donald to finish top 10 (+1400 DK)
Marks: Donald has performed well at Harbour Town, five times the bridesmaid and finishing third twice. His game checks all the boxes to win here, and he looks like he is back in vintage form. Others I like are Sungjae Im (+450 at DK) and Berger (+350 at DK).
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