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Best bets for the Masters ⛳
Best bets for the Masters
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Masters week is here. Yes, it's much later this year after the coronavirus pandemic caused it to move from its traditional date in April to November. Tiger Woods returns to Augusta as the defending champion, but several other top players also have their eye on the green jacket.
Who is underrated, and whom should you fade? Which bets and props are worth a look?
Sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, betting experts Doug Kezirian and Chris Fallica and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Bryson DeChambeau (8-1 to win)
Bearman: I'm not someone who gives out favorites in this weekly column, as the value is not high in doing so. However, I strongly believe DeChambeau is capable of running away with this, and I don't want to not be on it. Whatever offseason and COVID-19 break conditioning plan the DeChambeau camp implemented is working. His stats are off the chart, and word out of practice week is that he destroyed the course while playing with 1988 Masters champion Sandy Lyle. He leads the field in total shots gained, shots gained off the tee and tee to green, and is fifth in approach. Augusta National is a course where you can pick up a lot of strokes if you are shooting 8-irons into par 5s instead of 3-woods. The doubters about whether DeChambeau can reinvent the game are long gone, as the sixth-ranked player in the world seems to be lapping the field. DeChambeau's U.S. Open win put a final stamp on his arrival on the grand stage, as that was the missing link. He has two wins and 11 top-10 finishes in the past 13 months and shows no signs up letting up.
DeChambeau (8-1 to win, +100 Top 10, -275 Top 20)
Fallica: DeChambeau's scores haven't been great the three years he's played the Masters -- especially on Friday and Saturday -- but this is a different player. Consider in two of the three years he was top 10 for the tourney in putting but 30th or worse in greens in regulation. What does that mean? Longer drives, easier second shots and more makeable putts. If it all goes according to plan, we could see something incredible this weekend. Sure, he may not win, but at 8-1, I would hate myself if he won and I didn't have a ticket on him.
DeChambeau (8-1 to win); shoots tourney's best round (11-1 at DraftKings)
Marks: I normally do not go chalk, but this week I will. The metrics scream DeChambeau, especially with the expected weather forecast -- rain all weekend and over 80% chance on Friday. Distance isn't a necessity at Augusta, but with expected wet conditions, the track will play longer than normal. DeChambeau will have 100-yard looks in, as opposed to 125-130, which will help on approach shots. Other key metrics: DeChambeau ranks fifth in strokes gained on approach, T-7 at par 4 scoring birdies or better, is one of the best putting on bentgrass and possesses the course knowledge to dominate.
Jon Rahm (10-1 to win, +120 Top 10, -225 Top 20)
Fallica: Two years ago he was done in by an opening-round 75. Last year it was a long stretch of holes where he didn't make any bogeys -- but he also didn't take advantage of par 5s and make a bunch of birdies. Despite that, he posted top-10 finishes in both 2018 and 2019. He'll put it all together in Augusta one of these years, and with so much attention on DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson, maybe this will be the year.
Xander Schauffele (14-1 to win, +300 Top 5 Finish)
Bearman: If it seems like we write "Schauffele is due" at almost every major, it probably is true. He just is. Schauffele finished runner-up last year at Augusta and now has finished in the top 10 in four of the past six and six of the past nine majors. His current form is good as well with 11 consecutive top-25 finishes and 12 of 13 since the tour resumed. That includes runner-up finishes in two of the past four events. He's third in total shots gained, 10th around the green, 12th tee to green and 13th in putting, all metrics that scream green jacket. If he doesn't win, it very well could be another near miss for Schauffele, so +300 to finish in the top 5 is a good play as well.
Tony Finau (28-1 to win, +260 Top 10, -110 Top 20)
Fallica: Mock him -- and me -- if you want, but he was in the final group here last year and nobody has more top 10s in majors since the start of 2018 (seven). From a strokes gained standpoint, his off-the-tee and approach numbers put him right there. And if the greens are a little slower from all the rain, that helps his chances quite a bit. Adjust your bankroll accordingly by weighing your wagers more heavily toward the top 10 and top 20 markets, but be sure to put a little something on the win.
Adam Scott (50-1 to win)
Kezirian: The Aussie won this event in 2013 by battling rain, and that's in the forecast for this weekend. That's the only concrete comment I can make right now, because his summer was hindered by a positive COVID-19 test. Fortunately, he did not have severe symptoms and they only lasted for approximately 48 hours. This past weekend, Scott did break 70 in three of four rounds at the Houston Open. At 50-1, I have to take a flier here.
Paul Casey (60-1 to win, +200 Top 5 Finish)
Bearman: Speaking of guys in the "close but no cigar" club, Casey might be the vice president of it. After his run at the PGA Championship came up just short, Casey now has 10 top-10 finishes in majors, including five top 10s in 13 appearances at Augusta National. His best finish is T-4 in 2016, but he also finished sixth in 2015 and 2017. His ball-striking remains at the top of the tour, and if he can clean it up around the greens, 60-1 can be a good price on Sunday.
Cameron Smith (66-1 to win, +500 Top 10 Finish)
Bearman: For my last pick to win, I was looking for someone with higher odds who has played well here and has a short game that can make him a contender at Augusta. Smith recorded a T-5 in his second appearance here in 2018, is 20th in shots gained putting and has played well of late with a T-4 at the Zozo and 11th the week before at Shadow Creek. I'll be sprinkling some at 66-1 and at +500 to finish in the Top 10.
Prop bets
Dustin Johnson +250 Top 5
Marks: I love the straight forecast odds offered pre-tournament. I expect both DJ and Justin Thomas to be at the top of the leaderboard Sunday, competing with DeChambeau for a green jacket. DJ is consistently great at Augusta, sporting four straight top-10 finishes, and is coming in hot from the Houston Open (second-place finish) and is on point with his putter.
Justin Thomas +275 Top 5
Marks: JT's iron play is top notch, and Augusta is the second-shot course. Thomas hit 55 greens on this track last year. I expect much of the same in 2020, and he has been working on improving his putting this season.
Johnson (+110 Top 10, -225 Top 20)
Fallica: DJ has been runner-up in three of the last six majors and was also sixth at the U.S. Open. In addition, he's posted four straight top 10s at Augusta and hasn't been worse than sixth in any of his last six events. To say he's dialed in is an understatement.
Brooks Koepka (+160 Top 10)
Marks: The dude takes his golf game to epic levels for the majors. I faded him last week at the Houston Open, thinking he would use the time to tweak and fine tune, but he finished T-5, shooting 65s the final two days, and the knee looked good.
Schauffele (+138 Top 10)
Marks: Another player who loves the big stage. Schauffele has seven top 10s in 13 major appearances. His game fits Augusta and he finished T-2 here last year while sporting a top-10 metric in greens in regulations (a key stat).The top 25 is typically his wheelhouse, but he did finish in the top 5 in both the Tour Championship and U.S. Open.
Schauffele (+138 Top 10, -175 Top 20)
Fallica: People like to harp on Finau's struggles, but at some point doesn't Schauffele have to close one of these out? He's got six top 10s in his past nine majors, including tying for second last year here. He was the runner-up at the Tour Championship and at Shadow Creek. He's a great player, but I will again focus my Schauffele wagers on the top 10 and top 20 markets.
Bubba Watson (+250 Top 10, -110 Top 20)
Fallica: Bubba has posted a pair of top 10s in his past two tourneys, and the two-time Masters champion has seemingly found his game again in the past couple of years. He can carry it a ton, and that will again help him this week.
Patrick Cantlay (+200 Top 10, -125 Top 20)
Fallica: He'll be a trendy pick to win after holding a second-nine lead last year and winning the last event he played. But his 2020 season was a disappointment, as he didn't win and posted just three top 10s. He hits it long enough, and the other aspects of his game should again put him in the top 20 -- at worst.
Hideki Matsuyama (-110 Top 20)
Fallica: Matsuyama has posted top-20 finishes in four of the past five Masters, and the move to the fall might take some of the pressure off him. Another player who long has been fancied to win a major, but at some point his putter will let him down. But that 66-63 on the weekend in Houston should put him in a good place heading into this week.
Finau (-110 Top 20)
Marks: Finau has looked good since his bout with COVID-19, finishing in the top 25 in his past two tournaments. He has teed it up at Augusta twice in his career, finishing T-5 last year, and T-10 in 2018. Finau can grip it and rip it, and I believe distance will be a factor this week with rain expected, making this track play longer.
Watson (-110 Top 20)
Marks: Bubba has won twice here before, and he is at the top of the list when it comes to course awareness and command of this track. His game has been on point the last few months, and he is one of the best iron players teeing it up this week. I would love to play Bubba in the top 10, but his putting has been the issue.
DeChambeau or Schauffele to win tournament (5-1)
Bearman: I picked them both to win, so might as well take the 5-1 on either of them winning
DeChambeau to win by 3+ shots (18-1)
Bearman: Putting my money where my mouth is, I said Bryson could run away with it. William Hill offers this prop, which at 18-1 is worth a play.
Tiger Woods to have any bogey-free round at +700
Bearman: I don't think Tiger has been displaying the right form to win this week, but I think he will play well. He knows this course better than anyone, so one bogey-free round is certainly a possibility
Matsuyama (-135) over Hatton, Cantlay (-125) over Hatton, Watson (-105) over Hatton, Finau (-110) over Hatton
Fallica: Yes, I'm fading Hatton here. Each of the four players Hatton is matched up against have some great course history and excellent current form. Hatton has never broken 70 at Augusta and has gone **, T-44, T-56 in his three trips here. And he's brought good form into the Masters each of those years, so I'm concluding this course and his game don't mesh -- or at least it hasn't to this point. Hatton isn't super-long off the tee, and that could hurt in these softer conditions.
Matt Kuchar (-135) over Matt Wallace
Fallica: Few players have been as consistent at the Masters as Kuchar. Over the past 10 years, he's been worse than 28th once. Wallace missed the cut here last year, firing a 75-77, and most of his stateside starts in the past year have been of the missed cut/outside top 35 manner.
Victor Perez (+125) over Dylan Frittelli
Fallica: Frittelli has never been better than 31st in a major and missed the cut in his only Masters appearance. Perez missed the cut at Winged Foot but played at Harding Park and finished 22nd.
Finau (-115) over Webb Simpson
Fallica: Prior to last year's fifth-place finish, Simpson was a fringe top-30 performer at Augusta. It's still a second-shot course, and that plays to Webb's strength, but he'll be playing from farther back in the fairway and Finau's length should give him an edge here.
Lucas Glover (+110 at DK) over Gary Woodland
Kezirian: This is strictly a play against Woodland, who is nursing a back injury. He withdrew from his last tournament and never broke 71 in the previous two tourneys. He also lacks any encouraging course history at Augusta. There is no reason to back Woodland here. Glover has not done anything special since the pandemic restart, but it's enough for me to back him against Woodland.
Matthew Wolff (-130) over Woods
Kezirian: There's a reason the defending Masters champion is an underdog to a golfer most sports fans have never heard of. When Tiger won in 2019, he was in great form and obviously he knows Augusta National. It all made sense, and his odds were only 12-1. Now, he's currently priced at 35-1 and bookmakers have said the public is not backing him like they normally do, so true odds are probably closer to 55-1. That's because his recent form is brutal and the injuries are taking their toll. In his past two events, Woods missed the cut at the U.S. Open and also finished 72nd of 78 golfers at the Zozo Championship. I would not be all that surprised if he misses the cut but his course knowledge could also help him sneak inside the number.
Meanwhile, Wolff is the world's 14th-ranked golfer and has finished runner-up in two of his last four events. He ranks 20th this season in driving distance, which will be critical with the tough weather this week. And this more of a fade against Tiger than anything else.
Scottie Scheffler (-120) over Justin Rose
Marks: Scheffler is coming in hot after shooting a final-round 65 in the Houston Open. This is his Masters debut, but he has the distance to be a legit first-time contender and is a birdie and eagle machine. Rose missed the cut here in 2019, and this season his game has been widely inconsistent.
Webb Simpson (-120) over Collin Morikawa
Marks: Simpson tied for fifth here last year and is getting more familiar with the Augusta track. His iron play is one of the best and he can scramble well, which will be a big factor this week. Morikawa's putting will be an issue, which makes him a big fade.
Jason Kokrak (+100 at DK) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
Marks: Kokrak is on fire right now. He can crush it and has the distance for this week, and he kills it putting on bentgrass. Fitzpatrick plays well in bad weather, but my money is still on Kokrak to continue his tear.
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Originally Posted by KVB
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