1. 01-30-18 02:22 PM #1
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Monte Carlo Golf

    Did some research into golf, and found four statistics that are highly predictive of results, while being relatively consistent over time. Built a simulation engine in excel to simulate 10,000 tournaments. Been beating the close by miles over the past two weekends.

    Posting my picks here. Can't really do much of a write up because there isn't any analysis but the simulated results.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-30-18 02:24 PM #2
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Waste Management Pheonix Open:

    All risking 1 unit

    M. Leishman +124 over Justin Thomas
    P. Reed +111 over K. Chappell
    B. Cauley -118 over R. Knox
    C. HOFFMAN -103 over R. Palmer
    Last edited by Waterstpub87; 01-30-18 at 02:28 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-31-18 08:27 AM #3
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Adding D. Berger 103 over A. Noren
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 02-06-18 12:29 PM #4
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD (3-2, +1.11)

    Pebble Beach Pro-am

    D. Johnson -142 over R.Mcilory
    G.Woodland +156 over J. Spieth
    K. Kisner +120 over B.Grace
    V. Taylor -120 over P. Dunne
    G. Mcdowell -101 over B. Harkins
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 02-06-18 10:33 PM #5
    Winning oasis
    Winning oasis's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-14-11
    Posts: 1,241
    Betpoints: 7651

    Looks good. I like Day over McIlroy -145 also. I think DJ and Day have good performances. GL
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 02-07-18 02:50 PM #6
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Adding

    Tournament Matchup
    D. Johnson -155 over J. Day
    S. Lowry 100 over J. Kokrak

    First Round
    W. McGirt 184 over J.Day
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 02-07-18 02:50 PM #7
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    All bets always risk one unit
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 02-07-18 05:00 PM #8
    canepole
    Update your status
    canepole's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-12-10
    Posts: 973
    Betpoints: 8117

    Good looking card and GL Perez +145 vs Casey Tournament Matchup jumping out at me
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 02-07-18 05:37 PM #9
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Adding

    1st Round
    M. Mcnealy 117 over P. Dunne
    P. Mickelson 125 over R. Mcilroy
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 02-09-18 07:01 AM #10
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    2nd Round
    J. Kelly +158 over Kevin Streelman
    W. McGirt +184 over J.Day
    M. Mcnealy +143 over P. Dunne
    C. Davis +183 over B.Hossler
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 02-10-18 09:59 AM #11
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Round 3
    S. Cink 115 over A. Cook
    C. Davis 185 over B. Hossler
    J. Kelly 152 over K. Streelman
    W. Mcgirt 202 over j.day
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 02-11-18 09:01 AM #12
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Round 4
    KJ Choi 155 over R. Knox
    S.Stricker 150 over J. Day
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 02-13-18 12:00 PM #13
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 10 - 14 -1.38
    Genesis Open
    O. Schniederjans -109 over A. Noren
    D. Berger -131 over T. Pieters
    R. Cabrera-Bello -126 over H. Li
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 02-14-18 12:16 PM #14
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    1st Round
    H. English 100 over T.PIETERS
    X. Schauffele +105 over A. Noren
    K. Stanley -115 over. T.POTTER JR
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 02-16-18 09:00 AM #15
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    2nd Round
    O. Schniederjans -120 over B. Hossler
    R. Armour +155 over T. Finau
    X. SCHAUFFELE 100 over A. Noren
    H. English -110 over T. Pieters
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 02-18-18 08:59 AM #16
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Round 4

    A. Baddeley 174 over. J. Thomas
    B. DeChambeau -115 over P. Uihlein
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 02-20-18 12:26 PM #17
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 13-20 (-4.68)

    Honda Classic
    G. McDowell +123 over C. Hadley
    P. Kizzire -112 over T. Pieters
    B. Harman +130 over A. Noren
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 02-22-18 08:28 AM #18
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Round 1
    K. Kisner 161 over R. Fowler
    A. Scott 152 over R. Mcilory
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 02-27-18 12:35 PM #19
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 14-24 (-7.45)

    WGC Mexico
    J. Dufner -103 over A. Hadwin
    A. Noren 102 over P. Mickelson
    J. Rahm 112 over J. Thomas
    T. Fleetwood 128 over J. Speith
    A. Noren 134 over J. Rose
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 02-27-18 01:31 PM #20
    SBR Drew
    SBR Drew's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-18
    Posts: 7,351
    Betpoints: 265

    Any thoughts on who wins the WGC?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 02-27-18 03:01 PM #21
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Quote Originally Posted by SBR drew View Post
    Any thoughts on who wins the WGC?
    Unfortunately no. There were many golfers who are mostly European, so i don't have data from there. I use the strokes gained statistic, which is PGA tour proprietary. I don't normally bother to calculate the tournament winner, because it takes time, and the vig is too high on the futures bets.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 02-27-18 03:22 PM #22
    SBR Drew
    SBR Drew's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-18
    Posts: 7,351
    Betpoints: 265

    Understood...well keep your matchups coming..always interesting to see who you like.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 02-27-18 03:35 PM #23
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Row Labels Count of Winner
    1781
    Abraham Ancer 27
    Adam Hadwin 108
    Alex Noren 246
    Branden Grace 166
    Brendan Steele 185
    Brian Harman 188
    Bubba Watson 110
    Charl Schwartzel 57
    Charley Hoffman 137
    Chez Reavie 194
    Daniel Berger 194
    Dustin Johnson 601
    Francesco Molinari 133
    Gary Woodland 239
    Hao Tong LI 58
    Jason Dufner 205
    Jhonattan Vegas 66
    Jon Rahm 439
    Jordan Spieth 321
    Justin Rose 229
    Justin Thomas 272
    Kevin Chappell 159
    Kevin Kisner 195
    Kyle Stanley 109
    Louis Oosthuizen 194
    Marc Leishman 175
    Matt Kuchar 213
    Pat Perez 172
    Patrick Cantlay 303
    Patrick Reed 150
    Patton Kizzire 49
    Paul Casey 258
    Peter Uihlein 57
    Phil Mickelson 281
    Rafa Cabrera Bello 118
    Rickie Fowler 349
    Russell Henley 167
    Sergio Garcia 167
    Thomas PIETERS 91
    Tommy Fleetwood 175
    Tony Finau 233
    Webb Simpson 206
    Xander Schauffele 223
    (blank)
    Grand Total 10000

    Of the golfers I have data for, here is the breakdown. The blank number on top represents when 2 or more golfers have same score.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 02-27-18 04:09 PM #24
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Adding

    R. Fowler -102 over T. Fleetwood
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 02-28-18 09:03 AM #25
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    1st Round
    D. Berger +100 over T. Pieters
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 03-02-18 08:43 AM #26
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    2nd Round
    D. Berger +100 over T. Pieters
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 03-07-18 11:37 AM #27
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 15-28 ( -10.2)
    Valspar Open

    L. List 128 over L. Oosthuizen
    Byeong-Hun An 139 over G. Woodland
    O. Schniederjans 118 over B. Haas
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 03-07-18 05:25 PM #28
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    Round 1
    P. Harrington 170 over C. Smith
    A. Scott 130 over S. Garcia
    G. McDowell 102 Over J. Walker
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 03-14-18 02:56 PM #29
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 15-30 (-12.2)

    Arnold Palmer Invitational

    J. Rose 107 over T. Woods
    H. Stenson -113 over B. Watson
    J. Day 107 over T. Woods
    H.Matsuyama -103 over A. Noren
    C. Hoffman -103 over P.Kizzire
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 03-27-18 10:56 PM #30
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 18-32 (-11.27)

    Houston Open
    B. Cauley 115 over J. Kokrak
    B Harkins 159 over. L.Glover
    W. Mcgirt 100 over R. Sabbatini
    B. Cauley 110 over JB Holmes
    I. Poulter -116 over M. Kaymer
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 04-02-18 10:07 PM #31
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 21-34 (-10.15)

    Masters
    P. Kizzire -126 over M. Kaymer
    J. Dufner -114 over R. Fisher
    K. Kisner 105 over C. Schwartzel
    P. Casey 107 over B. Watson
    Z. Johnson 110 over C. Smith
    D. Berger -125 over C. Schwartzel
    J. Rahm 115 over B. Watson
    D. Johnson -105 over R. Mcilroy
    D. Johnson -105 over J. Speith
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 04-11-18 12:35 AM #32
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    RBC Heritage
    Dustin Johnson -157 (Dustin Johnson vrs Matt Kuchar)
    Tyrrell Hatton -114 (Cameron Smith vrs Tyrrell Hatton)
    Tyrrell Hatton +122 (Marc Leishman vrs Tyrrell Hatton)
    Xander Schauffele +111 (Xander Schauffele vrs Kevin Na)
    Patton Kizzire -102 (Patton Kizzire vrs Charl Schwartzel)
    Graeme McDowell +114 (Austin Cook vrs Graeme McDowell)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 04-18-18 08:53 AM #33
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 28-42 (-11.54)

    Texas Open
    K. Na -125 over J. Suri
    O. Schniederjans -115 over S. Kim
    J. Walker 110 over R. Palmer
    S. Garcia -108 over M.Kuchar
    S. Garcia -104 over C. Hoffman
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 05-02-18 09:42 AM #34
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 30-45 (-12.57)

    Wells Fargo Championship
    J. Thomas -105 over R. Mcilroy
    P. Mickelson -120 over T. Woods
    P. Mickelson 100 over P. Casey
    W. Simpson 110 over T. Finau
    T. Fleetwood -130 over L. Oosthuizen
    T. Hatton -120 over A. Hadwin
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 05-08-18 11:17 AM #35
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
    Waterstpub87's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-09
    Posts: 4,044
    Betpoints: 7292

    YTD 31-48 (-14.75)

    Players Championship

    T. Fleetwood 105 over. F. Molinari
    B. Grace 115 over L. Oosthuizen
    T. Hatton -110 over D. Berger
    J. Day -110 over. J.Speith
    D. Johnson 100 over R. Mcilroy
    D. Johnson -130 over R. Fowler
    B. Harman -125 over S.Kim

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | More Sports | Next Thread »