1. #1
    bigboydan
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    Odds on winning the 2007 Tour de France posted

    Anyone have any predictions on this event?



    Odds on winning the 2007 Tour de France posted

    The sportsbooks have published their betting odds on the 2007 Tour de France, Alexandre Vinokourov a strong favorite.

    Odds on winning the 2007 Tour de France posted Running from Saturday July 7th to Sunday July 29th 2007, the 94th Tour de France will be made up of a prologue and 20 stages and will cover a total distance of 3,550 kilometers. These 20 stages include: 11 flat stages, 6 mountain stages, 2 individual time-trial stages and1 medium mountain stage. The 2007 Tour de France will start from London.

    If you are big cycling fan and would like to join on the action - the online betting website Bodog Sports is already taking wagers on the Tour.

    The last year's winner of Tour de France, Floyd Landis, still embroiled in a court case between himself and the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency, will miss the 2007 race. And the favorite to win the 2007 Tour de France now is the Kazakh rider Alexandre Vinokourov with odds of only 3/2. He is followed by Alejandro Valverde with odds on winning 5/2 and Andreas Kloden with 9/2.

    Levi Leipheimer, who is rumored to be the new Discovery Team leader is with odds 10/1. Because of the bad performance of the Discover Team at the last year's Tour de France (their front man Jose Acevedo finishing 19th overall), betting on Discovery could prove a great pay out for bettors, if a member the team wins the 2007 race.

  2. #2
    Art Vandeleigh
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    Yeah I was following the Tour de France in 2004 and 2005 to see if Armstrong could break the record, and to see if Sheryl Crow was really dating this guy.

    I was kind of surprised in 2004 (the first time I ever followed this race) when I found out it wasn't 200 riders racing individually across France, but rather about 20 teams of 10 riders, with a team leader who was the one really going for the yellow jersey. And then realisticaly, only like about 6 of the 20 or so stages determine who'll get the yellow (2 individual time trials, 1 team time trial, 3 maybe 4 stages that end up on an uphill finish). In all the other stages, everyone gets the same time as the finishing pack, unless they got unlucky and had a crash or something. You live and learn I guess.

    Anyway, I still have in my mind the unbelievable ride of the young Valverde guy in stage 10 of the 2005 race when he blew Armstrong away at the finish to win a tough uphill stage. I was wowed by that performance and it has stayed with me ever since. With all the big names out now, I'm going to try to cash on that signal Valverde gave that he's the best of what's left.(although he had to leave the 2005 tour on stage 13 with a knee injury).

    Valverde crashed and fractured his collarbone and had to withdraw early in last year's (2006) tour, but if he's healthy I think he's the one to beat. Vinokourov is a tough kid kind of bulldog like, always tries his best, but I wouldn't take him as the chalk. I'm going with Valverde in this one.

    Those odds which I guess are being listed at Bodog seem pretty crummy. The thin market at TS shows Vinokourov around +220, Valverde +600, Kloden +1100, etc.
    Last edited by Art Vandeleigh; 07-04-07 at 05:46 AM.

  3. #3
    Art Vandeleigh
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    Well if anyone bet on this year's tour and didn't really know what they were betting on, today was the first individual time trial, and Kloden finds himself 17 seconds ahead of Vinokourov and 30 seconds ahead of Valverde. This is not too significant a result. (BTW no team time trial in this years tour).

    If you bet the GC (yellow jersey) winner, you can pretty much ignore the Tour for the next week, because there won't be any major changes that affect your bet until then (unless someone crashes or gets injured or gets caught taking foreign substances and is forced out of the race). Some minor rider may take a few minutes lead after making a successful breakaway in one of these early stages, but the contenders won't allow an important rider who rides well in the mountains to take a big lead. Only a rider who is known to be weak in the mountains and can be easily caught and passed will be allowed to make the breakaway from the main pack.

    On July 14 the first major climb takes place on Stage 7 and it's possible the contenders may sort themselves out.

    Most likely this will not happen until Stage 8 on July 15 followed by another killer Stage 9 on July 17. The winner of the yellow jersey race will most likely be decided by then.

    If it is still too close to call after these stages, and there are contenders within maybe two minute or so of each other, then the two longer time trials Stage 13 on July 21 and Stage 19 on July 29 should decide things.

    The last realistic chance for someone who's far back to make a break for it like Floyd Landis (accused of cheating to accomplish this) did last year will be on Stage 16 July 25.
    Last edited by Art Vandeleigh; 07-08-07 at 04:51 AM.

  4. #4
    Art Vandeleigh
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    So both Kloden and Vinokourov took spills today, surprising that it happened in this stage. Here's a description of what happened in Vinokourov's nasty one...

    "...Vinokourov crashed on a descent while traveling at more than 60 kph as the peloton continued its pursuit of a two-man breakaway over tight, winding roads. Vinokourov blamed the crash on a problem with his chain, which caused him to launch over his handlebars and land on his right side, tearing his shorts open and banging his knee on the pavement. Television pictures showed a TV motorcycle on its side just behind Vinokourov, apparently laid down while trying to avoid the fallen Astana rider"

    Not sure what's worse, being fully padded and nailed by a linebacker trying to catch a ball up the middle, or having no padding and falling over a bike handlebar onto cement at 40 mph....Vinokourov looked like a mess, don't know how he finishes the stage with so many bruises on him.

    Amazingly, Betfair is still showing him as the favorite at about 4-1. Rumors had it that Kloden had a hairline fracture in a bone after his spill, but his odds have drifted back down to about 6-1 so I guess the prognosis isn't so serious, Valverde stayed more or less out of trouble and is still hanging around 5-1.

    Vinokourov still being the favorite shows how much respect the market has for his toughness, and also that Valverde hasn't finished the Tour de France in his 2 tries. Vinokourov lost a minute and 26 seconds today, which in effect is the amount of time he could have expected to gain in the 2 time trials on Valverde. So now he has to stay with Valverde in ALL the stages. Tough task even if he was completely healthy.

    Lance Armstrong could get off his couch right now and beat the other guys in this tour even if he pedalled the bike with only one of his feet.

  5. #5
    Art Vandeleigh
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    As the riders go into their first rest day of the Tour tomorrow (July 16), I have to believe that Valverde and his team are pretty content to be where they are. They haven't got the lead at the moment, but this race is a marathon, not a sprint, and it looks like the pre-race favorite Vinokourov is all but done for this tour.

    Today Michael Rasmussen took charge of things and won the difficult 8th stage comfortably. He did a similar thing in the 2005 tour, he made a break for it on a mountain stage (he's probably the best mountain rider on the tour) and made it to 3rd place overall going into the next to last day of the 2005 tour, where all he had to do was ride a decent time trial.

    Instead, Rasmussen fell off his bike twice, slipped a bunch of other times, had to change his bike twice, and oh yeah, he managed to fall into a ditch also, to drop from 3rd to 7th place overall. It was like watching a 5 year old kid whose parents had just taken the training wheels off the bike, trying to find his balance. Rasmussen has a body type that's great for riding uphill, but I guess you have to know how to do other things as well with a bike to win the Tour. Since there a few mountain stages left, if he can make another break (I doubt he'll be allowed to do it again) he could actually win this Tour. If not, he'll almost surely be caught during the time trials.

    Maybe it's just because I bet him and I'm wishing and hoping, but to my untrained eye, Valverde seemed to be the most in control of this stage today (stage 8). When any of the other main contenders tried to make a break for it, Valverde would accelerate and get right behind them, sort of like telling them if you want to make a break for it, I'm going to stay right behind you and make you do all the work. No one got away, and the next group after Rasmussen (the group of main contenders) stayed together, which is what I'm sure Valverde and his team wanted. Valverde didn't try to make any breaks on his own, but I doubt that's his or his team's strategy for winning the Tour.

    At the end of the stage, Iban Mayo, who was considered a contender against Armstrong a few tours back (but flopped miserably), was allowed to get away probably because the contenders believe he's past his prime, and finished second by a few seconds. Valverde then sprinted to beat the other 4 guys he was with for 3rd place.

    The 9th stage on July 17th has two climbs that are so steep they are categorized at the highest level possible, and so the picture can change completely once again, especially after the riders recharge following a rest day.

    I think Valverde and his team's stategy is to survive the Alps unscathed and then finish this tour off in the Pyrenees where he'll have, if such a thing is possible, home mountain range advantage, being from Spain and all, and the crowds will probably be cheering him on wildly if he's still in contention.

    Current Betfair odds:

    Valverde: 4.5-1
    Rasmussen: 6-1
    Kloden: 8-1
    Evans: 9-1
    Vinokourov: 9-1

  6. #6
    Art Vandeleigh
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    Odds after stage 11:

    Kloden: 2.5-1
    Valverde: 4.5-1
    Evans: 6-1
    Rasmussen: 7-1
    Contador: 8-1

    So the people who put their money where their mouth is are insisting that my boy is not the favorite anymore, but that Kloden is going to be the man standing at the top of the podium in Paris. We shall see.

    Saturday (stage 13) is the first of two time trials, each being 55 km, the other time trial being on the next to last day of the tour (Stage 19). These time trial are just a ride on your own against the clock, no one to ride in front of you and allow you to get into their slipstream. You have to do the work by yourself, and it's a demonstration of power and technical ability. It's also one of the few times where you can pick up or lose time on your opponents.

    On the first day of the tour, there was a short time trial, about 10 km, and Kloden finished 2nd and beat Valverde by 30seconds that day. If you extrapolate that over 110 km of time trialing, that would mean in theory that Kloden could pick up more than 5 minutes on Valverde in the 2 time trials to come. However, from what I remember watching the last couple of years, it's unusual for the favorites to pick up anywhere near that much time over their rivals, even Lance couldn't pick up tha much time.

    A couple of big unknowns - no one knows for sure how much damage Kloden's crash (and supposed hairline fracture in one of his bones) will affect these "power" performances. Also, Valverde has never reached a major time trial in a Tour De France stage. He is supposed to be a pretty good time trialist, not top notch but pretty good, but until he shows he can do it at Le Tour...he is still a big unknown. Judging from what he's shown so far, I have a lot of confidence he'll do just fine.

    Probably the most Kloden could expect to gain on Valverde is around 1.5 to 2 minutes for the two time trials together. Since Valverde is currently 1:15 ahead of Kloden, that would be enough to give Kloden the lead and possibly the win in the Tour, which is surely why he has become the favorite. One thing is almost certain, that the other favorites will get much closer to Rasmussen, and possibly even pass him this Saturday, since he is a terrible time trialist.

    There are 3 very mountainous stages in between the 2 time trials, and two of them end on very steep mountains, so a lot of action could take place those two stages. More on those stages pending the results of the first time trial Saturday.

    Game on.

  7. #7
    Art Vandeleigh
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    Odds after stage 13:


    Evans: 3.5-1
    Rasmussen: 4-1
    Contador: 5-1
    Vinokourov: 5.5-1
    Kloden: 6-1

    I was looking for an excuse around the net for Valverde's pathetic performance today, but all I could find was this (from Velonews)

    (Valverde being quoted)

    "I knew it was a bad day. This morning I felt good, but as of the time trial started, I felt that my legs were not that good and when my director communicated me the intermediate times, I understood that I was going to lose plenty of time today," Valverde said. "But the Tour and cycling are like that: one day you win and the other one you lose.

    ..... "I am here to learn and before being able to win the Tour, I believe that one has to learn to know it. As I had already said, this year the most important for me is to arrive in Paris, which is my first goal, and in the future, we will see if I am able to win it some day," he said. "Now, three stages await us in the Pyrénées and we will see how each of us recovers, to start with me, and from there, which possibilities are left for us to achieve something."


    Yeah blah blah blah Alejandro, you mucked up my great +650 bet, that's the bottom line.

    Anyway, I gotta figure out who the hell is going to win this thing - quickly. They're in the mountains the next 3 stages, and I'm sure there will be some effort made by the contenders to break away from each other, but they seem evenly matched on the mountains and it looks at the moment that the last time trial will decide things. Props to Michael Rasmussen today, he rode much better than anyone thought he could, in fact he rode so well that he's almost the co-favorite to win, that would be amazing.

    Good learning experience this Tour, both for me and Valverde - and if I may quote Chicago Cub fans - Wait 'til next year!

  8. #8
    tkt
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    Rasmussen is out, I think Contador or Evans will win.... Back both of them for SURE PROFIT!!!

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