I've decided to start a thread to track the progress of my picks. We're already midway through the 2nd round but I will be posting my picks for the remainder of the tournament. Best of luck all!
This matchup is a tough one to call which is supported by the prices in the match betting market. I lean towards Wade to win the match based on his ability and experience on the PDC circuit (particularly at these World Championships). Although I don't really see an edge in the match betting market, I have found some value in the extra markets involving Bunting. Most major books have the Total 180's market for Bunting set at 6.5 with both Over and Under priced up at 5/6 (-120). However, Stan James have the market set at 5.5 with the Over priced at Evens (+100) which is my pick for the game. With this being a 2nd round match, they will be playing Best-of-7 sets, and as the match betting odds suggest, this one has the potential to go the distance, which would improve our chances of cashing the 180's pick. I think this match will be 4-2 at worst, maybe 4-3 either way. If this one can go at least 6 sets, I think Bunting is more than capable of averaging at least one '180' score per set which will be enough to take it over the posted total.
Pick: Bunting Over 5.5 180's (EVS/+100) Risking 2 Units to win 2 Units.
Well, that's one of the worst performances I've ever seen from James Wade! His body language was awful and he didn't look focused at any point in the match. I expected this one to be a close game but Bunting prevailed comfortably by 4 sets to 1. Bunting started slowly (in terms of 180's), failing to hit one in either of the opening 2 sets. However, he went on to hit a total of 8 across the final 3 sets to cash the 'Over 5.5 180's' pick with relative ease.
We're now entering Round 3 of the tournament, where matches will continue to be contested over a best-of-7 sets format. Peter Wright is the favourite in this matchup, priced up at roughly 2/7 (-350). I fully understand why Wright is favoured for this match based on ability and form, and I do expect him to advance. However, Hamilton is renowned for never giving up and fighting until the end, which makes me believe this could be more competitive than the oddsmakers are suggesting. At first glance, Hamilton +2.5 on the sets handicap was one of the markets I was interested in looking at, although at odds of 4/7 (-175), there didn't appear to be any value. I then turned my attention to the 'Total sets in match' market, which is listed as 5.5 with the Over and Under both priced at 5/6 (-120). Now, I would be surprised if Hamilton white-washes Wright 4-0, can't see it happening. Hamilton 4-1 is more likely but I think Wright will win at least 2 sets here. Therefore, taking 'Over 5.5 Sets' in the match is a better value option than Hamilton +2.5 Sets on the handicap. Hamilton has the ability to take this the distance for sure, and who knows, maybe grind out the win. Either way I expect a close faught match with 6 or more sets as a result.
Pick: Over 5.5 Total sets in match 5/6 (-120) Risking 1.8 Units to win 1.5 Units.
There is no doubting the sheer quality that Anderson possesses, and when he's in form he's virtually unstoppable. However, there's an occasional vulnerability regarding Anderson concerning his checkout percentage. Missed doubles in key situations have cost Anderson on multiple occasions in the past. Don't get me wrong, if Anderson loses this match, it will go down as one of the biggest upsets in Championship history. However, I think Reyes has shown he's more than capable of hanging with the regulars on the pro circuit and I believe he can avoid a 4-0 white-wash here. Reyes was a complete unknown to most before this tournament started as he reached the main draw through qualifiers. Eye-brows were raised when he defeated the seeded Wes Newton in the first round, but upsets do happen, maybe it was just a freak result? Judging by his 2nd round victory over Kevin Painter, that's not the case. The character that he showed to fight back from 3-1 down to win 4-3, really made people take notice. He has been pretty consistent so far this tournament, and although he lacks the championship quality and big-stage experience that Anderson possesses, he has low expectations and nothing to lose. He has shown that he can put up a fight and battle to the end based on his performance in the previous round so even if he goes a couple of sets down, he certainly won't fold and let Anderson stroll through to the next round. With this match being a best-of-7 sets contest again, I am going with 'Over 4.5 Sets' in the match with Reyes avoiding a 4-0 thrashing, priced at 4/6 (-150).
Pick: Over 4.5 Sets in the match 4/6 (-150) Risking 1.5 Units to win 1 Unit.
Dissapointing performance from Hamilton today, as Wright picked up a comfortable 4-0 win. Hamilton had opportunities to seal the 2nd set and level the scores at 1-1, which may have led to a tighter final scoreline. However, Wright played well and fully deserved the win.
Result: Total sets in match Over 5.5 LOST!
We didn't have to wait long for my second pick of the day to cash as Reyes won the opening set, which excluding a Reyes 4-0 win (not happening) would result in a winner. As expected, Anderson won the 2nd set to confirm it, unsurprisingly going on to win 4-1.
We're now entering the quarter final round where matches will be contested over a best-of-9 sets format. We're at the stage of the tournament where there is very little separating the majority of the field, and this matchup is a typical example of that. Peter Wright has endured several spells of great form over the last 18 months or so (including reaching the final here last year) and has the ability to beat anyone when he brings his 'A' game. Gary Anderson is favourite in the match betting and when he's on form, he's virtually unstoppable. Anderson is yet to hit the heights that many had predicted so far in his career, but there is no doubting he is still a dangerous, world-class player who is rightly considered as one of the favourites to lift the trophy at the end of this week. This is the most exciting matchup of the round in my opinion, and I predict a close battle between these two which could easily go down to the wire. I've decided to focus my attention on the 'Total player 180's' market, which in this case, involves Anderson. If you were to make a list of the top 3 players on the circuit when it comes to scoring ability, Gary Anderson would make almost everyone's list. When he's on form he can hit 180's for fun, and that is what I'm hoping for in this match. The market is set at 10.5 with both the 'Over' and 'Under' priced at 5/6 (-120). In Anderson's R16 match vs Reyes yesterday, he hit 8 maximums in 5 short sets (0-3, 3-1, 3-1, 3-0, 3-2). In his R32 match vs Klaasen, he managed to hit an impressive 14 maximums in 7 sets. This is by far Anderson's toughest match of the tournament so far, and he will have to bring his 'A' game to secure a place in the semi-finals. I expect this match to go at least 7 sets, and if it does, I believe Anderson is more than capable of hitting 11 or more 180's.
Pick: Anderson Total 180's 'Over 10.5' @ 5/6 (-120) Risking 1.8 Units to win 1.5 Units.
Wow, we really had to sweat that one out tonight as Anderson managed to hit 4 180's in the 6th (and final) set of the match, taking his total to 11 and cashing the pick by 0.5. I expected the scoreline to be closer than it was but Peter Wright struggled tonight and was far from producing the level of performance he is capable of, with Anderson securing a comfortable 5-1 victory and setting up a semi-final meeting with reigning world champion Michael Van Gerwen. I predicted that this match would probably need to last a minimum of 7 sets for Anderson to cash the 180's bet, however he managed to reach the required 11 over the course of 6 sets. He actually could have scored more as he hit a lot of 140's but fortunately he did enough anyway to cash the pick. On to the next one..
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