[Martinr]

around 4 goals.
A fresh Sydney Swans side ran rings around the Kangaroos last Friday night, and were basically unextended. The Roos were coming off a pair of hard fought wins and were at the end of the road, but still, the Swans could hardly have been more impressive. The margin could have been 100 had the Swans kept the pedal to the metal, but they started to cruise towards the end of the third before getting the word to keep the tempo up lest the slower pace cause a player to be injured. On Saturday they then watched Hawthorn fight to the end to shake off a gallant Port Adelaide.
That extra effort taken by the Hawks to get to the big dance is usually telling at this stage of the season, and this is reflected in the ML odds that give Sydney an implied 60% chance (1.68/2.48. Betfair) of winning their third flag since 2005 on Saturday. They are in better shape physically than the Hawks, who also try to win their third Flag in the same era.
This is probably the finale that most AFL fans wanted after their own team was out of contention. They have been the two dominant and most consistent teams all year, and the Buddy Franklin factor adds the theatre. Franklin is the key here. He couldn't be in better form. He just broke the record for the most number of Brownlow votes by a Coleman medallist. If Hawthorn put too much store in stopping him then Kurt Tippett will step up. The twin spearheads of Franklin and Tippett, supplied by their elite midfield should get the Bloods home fairly comfortably here. It's written in Buddy's contract.
Swans by 25+ @ 3.05. Betfair (-5% commision). Or 2.90 elsewhere.

[Lookingtostart]

Good write-up, I like it! Swans 25+ is exciting and the way I see it, it's either Hawks winning an unnecpected close one or Swans comfortably, nothing in between... well, who knows.

I know I shouldn't dwell on the past regarding these thing but still, the only thing worries me is how the underdog usually wins Grand Finals. Hope you get it, I'm with the Swans.

[Rustyglobes]

Don't forget the 2 earlier match ups these sides played against each other were fairly close.

Swans won the first game in sydney and only started getting on top when hawks started getting injuries in that match.. From memory it was 3 or 4 injuries after half time for the hawks and they still managed to come back and make a contest out of it...

Then we have the second match up where the hawks beat the swans but were still missing key players such as lake and rioli and possibly mitchell??? Can't be certain of mitchell though.

Before the 2012 grand final the swans hadn't beat the hawks in melbourne for years and that day it was hawthorns innacuracy which cost them as what happened to port last week.

Anyway bet against the hawks at your own peril, they are fully fit and bringing in a fully rested ruckman in Mcevoy who is well known for being able to run all day!! Everyone has written off the hawks as they did with sydney 2 years ago and we all know whay happened there.. My tip is Mitchell for Norm Smith

[Martinr]

There's no way I'd write off Hawthorn. Funny things can happen in the GF, and only an inexperienced punter would say that one team couldn't win. Sydney's last 3 Grand Finals have been decided by 10 points or less, so a good sweat either way is always on the cards. At some point though we've got to take a position as punters. I've weighted the team dynamic factor pretty heavily here. Probably more so than the public has, and I've given it an extra 2 goals.
McEvoy looks a positive on paper, but he hasn't the best of records in finals, and his inclusion could just as easily be a negative. Same with Rioli, although I don't doubt his ability to pull out a blinder when needed. He hasn't played at the top level though for what, 10 weeks? McEvoy for 4 or 5. I think it's vital for Hawthorn that their inclusion improves the team, because they were all out to beat Port last week, but their inclusion also adds an unknown to the team dynamic, and in a GF I'm betting that it hurts them.
To me it's all price dependent. I think getting 2/1 on a 4 goal margin is value because I think this margin would be covered by a full strength Sydney team on the big stage more than once in three times. I actually think all the alternative lines up to 10 goals and more on the Sydney side is value, but for a one off game I'll take the 4 goals.
Anyway, it's the GF, and luckily we've all got our different opinions because otherwise none of us could ever get a bet down.
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