[snufflyjoe]

Hey My Fellow Aussie Punters,

I know next to nothing about AFL so I thought I would consult the sharp AFL guys on this sub forum.

I saw a couple of lines and would appreciate some advise

North Melbourne Top 4 - $101.00
North Melbourne To raise the Flag $41.00

I was thinking that potentially these bets may offer an oppurtunity to hedge for some guaranteed profit but as I said I know next to nothing about the AFL (barely understand the rules!)

Am I just throwing money away betting on these? (Available at Sportsbet and Unibet and maybe other books)

Thanks for your help gents!

[Coopertrooper]

For the top 4: North need to jump both freo and port. Their percentage is so far off that it just isn't reasonable to speculate they can win by 100+ points every game, with port or freo having large losses.

So, they have to win 2 more games than port or 3 more games than freo. Considering the 2 sides play each other (I'll point out that a draw between the 2 sides would be the only other option, but that is very unlikely and still requires everything else to go the roos way), the only way the roos would be a reasonable chance is if Freo lose to both the hawks and brisbane and port lost to both the gold coast and carlton, and then port were to beat freo. The roos then need to win all 3 games (dogs, adel, melb).

You'd be better off just backing each result and cashing out when you want to instead of hedging out. You'd probably get better odds too.

For the flag: The crows and roos play each other. If the crows can win all 3 games, they could jump the roos, even if the roos won their other 2 matches. This would force the roos into an away final, which puts them in a very tough position to even win a final. If they can manage to play a home final, they are a side who have been wildly inconsistent, so are still a risk of bombing out. After that, they are capable of springing an upset (particularly if they play Geelong in a semi final. They would likely then play the hawks in a prelim, staying in melbourne for both games). They could well be worth trying to hedge off, but there is always a risk of them losing to a side they should beat. The next question is timing. If they were to finish 7th and travel to play the crows, you could probably get better than 41. If they stay in 6th, they aren't likely to come in very far. They might be 36 at the worst.

So, in my opinion, the top 4 bet is not worth worrying about, while the flag bet may have some value.

[binomial]

they only need to make up 180 - 200 points as I see it. this highly unlikely because bulldogs are going ok and melbourne are playing in a way so to try and not lose big. but should be assigned some small probability.

4	FREFremantle	No Change	19	13	6	0	1708	1320	129.4	WWLWL	HAW	52
5	PORTPort Adelaide	No Change	19	12	7	0	1887	1489	126.7	LLWLL	GCFC	48
6	NMFCNorth Melbourne	No Change	19	11	8	0	1691	1483	114	WWLLW	WB	44

[snufflyjoe]

Thanks both for your advice. binomial i tried to transfer you some points but it didn't work for some reason.

I actually took North Melbourne to win the flag at the start of the year at $17 . I will add a little bit more on as a mate of mine likes the "to win the flag" bet as well

Thanks again for your help and good luck with your plays this weekend

[Mase of Base]

There you go Snuffly there's a couple to em. Great write ups lads.

[snufflyjoe]

There you go Snuffly there's a couple to em. Great write ups lads.