[TEAMSPORTS]

Hi guys, happy to be here and ready to share some good times and make some plays. I follow all sports and have bet with varying success on anything and everything but these days have cut my plays down to those where I have the most success and get the most enjoyment from watching AFL, Cricket and Soccer (mainly EPL and Champions League).

I like to bet a variety of plays and I bet for fun but never to lose. I like to make some solid money on good plays but every so often I have a bit of fun with my profits and invest in some degen parlays and plays that will entertain me while watching the sports I love.

I research all plays no matter if they are solid or degen parllays, I like to know at least a little bit about what I am getting myself into. I take into account my gut and feel for a play which is just another way of saying that I use my past experience as that is what constitutes a lot of your feel for a game.

Besides the three sports I feel I have more knowledge in I also bet other football codes - NRL, Union and NFL often following plays from members of this forum or using your analysis to help confirm or deny my own leans. Many of the skills for analyzing the form seem to be very transferable between the four heavy contact football sports.

I like to minimize my plays to those that I actually feel will win so at times I may not be posting plays too often and if losing I cut my plays down even more. When winning I like to chuck on a few parlays to go for that big boost but still keep number of solid plays at minimum only using those I feel are premium.

I will post my leans for the upcoming AFL season as soon as this thread is active (hopefully later tonight) and will have some AFL futures plays. I dont generally bet much in the first round or 3 of any sport as I like to avoid that variance so there may not be any plays in the AFL this weekend. I like to get the upside when teams have poorer than expected first round then hit back at improved odds.

[TEAMSPORTS]

AFL 2014.
Round 1, played over 2 weekends.
At this stage there aren’t any plays that I feel stand out on the first weekend– Gold Coast/Richmond and Carlton/Port could both go either way and Sydney is nowhere near guaranteed to cover a 50 point line as they ease their way into the season. Out of the four games this weekend I would lean Fremantle (1-39.5) but with not much of a read on either sides form I would be basing this on Fremantle’s record at Etihad in the last couple of years which has been brilliant, however this is also a no play for me.


Next weekend there are few games I will be considering West Coast -23.5, Adelaide +21.5 and very keen on Hawthorn who seem to be up and about early -47.5 at home against a Brisbane side who will probably struggle this season. The Hawthorn line is the only one I can see moving much atm but that prob wont happen until later next week.

No AFL plays this weekend but we can have a look at some futures leans.


Premiership: Very hard to look past last years grand finalists Hawthorn and Fremantle at this point.Sydney also deserves to be right up there equal favourite. I think Geelong may drop out of the top four with someone like Richmond or North Melb to come in. Port Adelaide played a fantastic brand of football last year and could easily be there or there abouts.

Essendon is the big unknown with no-one being sure how they are going to come out this season after what they have been through. They have however had brilliant starts to the last 2 seasons and then faded, if they can have a similar start to this season their premiership price of $21 will quickly come tumbling in. I see Essendon making the the top 8 but also wouldn’t be surprised if they come top four or faded late to finish out of the eight.


Brownlow: The top 9 in the price market all have claims and wouldn’t be surprised if any of them take it out. I am leaving out Sam Mitchell (thought he would of won one already if he was to get there). Collingwood players Swan and Pendlebury I am also passing on in a side that should make the eight but may not dominate. Watson is again the dark horse, a known vote getter and popular with umpires (as is Swan) but I leave him out also. Joel Selwood is brilliant but may not quite get there this year. Cotchin is a chance at $15.


There are three players that after seeing them play just a handful of games I felt very strongly they would be future winners of the Brownlow medal. Those three players are Chris Judd, Gary Ablett and Nat Fyfe. Whether it is this season or sometime in the next couple of years Nat Fyfe is going to be a good chance for the Brownlow while playing in a successful team. The three players I like this year are Gary Ablett, Nat Fyfe and Patrick Dangerfield who has been there abouts and is a good chance. Adelaide also showing signs of improvement.

Coleman: I like Roughhead and Riewoldt. Cameron an outsider, Kennedy dangerous, Cloke can be inconsistent, Buddy may be playing more time up the ground and sharing goals with Tippett who also must be a contender.


My unit size ($20) is too small for me to have much interest in waiting all season to see some resulting cash so I am going to have a shot at a few multis at large odds that will be good entertainment during the season and allow me to follow these three markets with a small vested interest.


Parlay: Nat Fyfe Brownlow - Fremantle Dockers Premiership 1.25 Units @45 ($25 to make $1100 @bookmaker)

Parlay: Gary Ablett Brownlow - Fremantle Premiership - Roughead Coleman .25 Unit @315 ($5 to make $1570 @sportsbet)
Parlay: Gary Ablett Brownlow - Hawthorn Premiership - Roughead Coleman .25 Unit @266 ($5 to make $1325 @bookmaker)
Parlay: Nat Fyfe Brownlow - Josh Kennedy Coleman .5 Unit @70 ($10 to make $690 @sportsbet)
Parlay: Cotchin Brownlow - Hawthorn Premiership - Jack Riewoldt Coleman .125 Unit @399 ($2.50 to make $995 @bookmaker)
Parlay: Gary Ablett Brownlow - Fremantle Premiership - Jack Riewoldt Coleman .25 Unit @227.50 ($5 to make $1132.50 @sportsbet)
Parlay: Dangerfield Brownlow - Sydney Premiership - Jack Riewoldt Coleman .25 Unit @429 ($5 to make $2140 @sportsbet)


Now I got that out of my system we will look ahead to some real plays but I think for a small lay out of $57.50 I am getting good value on some season long entertainment.

[TEAMSPORTS]

Ireland Vs Zimbabwe @ World T20
I like Ireland to have a good performance and beat Zimbabwe at the world T20 tonight. Although Zimbabwe has shown some decent form in their last game I think the Irish at their hungriest are the better side atm. Ireland has been playing far more international cricket than Zimbabwe as of late and have had some very good performances against top sides including a recent away victory against T20 world champions the West Indies. The Irish on StPatricks day for me, just for the one unit.

1 Unit Ireland to beat Zimbabwe World T20 @2.00


Chelsea vs Galatasaray Champions League
Although Chelsea only needs a 0-0 draw to progress on away goals I think it is highly unlikely for this match to end in that manner. I am going for Chelsea -1.5 goals. I dont think they will feel very safe if they go up 1-0 and should push for more goals to put the match beyond doubt. Chelsea lost to Aston Villa 0-1 on the weekend and missed a great opportunity to consolidate their position at the top of the premier league table. Its possible and may have been a little distracted by the upcoming fixture with Galatasaray and there may be a little extra motivation to put that performance behind them, although progressing in the champions league is motivation enough for anyone. I expect to see a concentrated performance from CFC.

1 Unit Chelsea -1.5 Handicap @2

[TEAMSPORTS]

Ireland Vs Zimbabwe @ World T20

1 Unit Ireland to beat Zimbabwe World T20 @2.00

The Irish come through with a famous last ball victory. Ireland looked to have it all sown up about half way through their innings but a great fight back from Zimbabwe meant it got a whole lot closer towards the end and the last over can only be described as intense. With 4 balls remaining Ireland was 1 run behind Zimbabwe's total of 163, they then proceeded to lose 2 wickets in 2 balls leaving the equation at 2 runs required off the last 2 balls of the match. The 2nd last ball was squeezed out for a single, scores tied and Ireland managed to run a bye off the very last ball of the innings as the ball went through to the keeper who should really have been standing up to the stumps. A happy little day for the Irish! + 1 Unit

[TEAMSPORTS]

Adding: Champions League play
Real Madrid -2 AH 1 Unit @2.02 @bookmaker - not sure how many other aussie books offer AH but the other ones i am signed up to dont which is crazy because it is so popular, even bookmaker often doesn't offer AH it just depends on the game and they don't offer a choice of AH markets either normally just the one available.

Real Madrid has already all but secured its way through to the next round with 1-6 away win at Schalke and will most likely be resting some players but Ronaldo is playing and is in the hunt for goals aiming to be highest goalscorer in this years Champions League. Real Madrid will be looking to entertain their home crowd and an open game should ensue, a demoralized Schalke will have little to play for and are probably also looking ahead to other games.

[TEAMSPORTS]

1 Unit Chelsea -1.5 Handicap @2

Chelsea 2-0 + 1 Unit

Real Madrid -2 AH 1 Unit @2.02

Real Madrid 3-1 Refund

2-1-0 + 2 Units

AFL plays

Geelong v Adelaide +21.5 1 Unit @1.90
Hawthorn -46.5 v Brisbane 1.5 Units @1.91 (@sportingbet)
West Coast -23.5 v Western Bulldogs 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)

Adelaide worth a shot for 1 unit as they have shown some pre season form and I would rather be on that side of the line than be on Geelong -21.5

Hawthorn very strong team, should be up and about early, back them to cover the points at home.

West Coasta rejuvenated team looking to impress new coach, will be hard for anyone to beat at home, back them to put on a good performance first round and cover the points.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

keep up the good work buddy

[TEAMSPORTS]

Thanks TGM

Geelong v Adelaide +21.5 1 Unit @1.90

Adelaide worth a shot for 1 unit as they have shown some pre season form and I would rather be on that side of the line than be on Geelong -21.5

Adelaide couldn't stick with the Cats in the last quarter after being right in it for most of the game.
Result: - 1 Unit
Record: 2-1-1 +1 Unit
Luckily I followed Geelong under 39.5 that a few people posted and was the much more solid play.

Cricket World T20 plays:

South Africa v Sri Lanka 1.5 Units @1.80 (@sportingbet)
Sri Lanka just the better T20 side and the conditions are also in their favour, hop on these odds quick as it is only paying 1.67 at sportsbet so there is some value there. Only 1.5 Units bcos anything can happen in a T20 but I really like this spot at those odds.

England v New Zealand 1 Unit @1.74 (@sportsbet)
New Zealand also just the better T20 side so some value but just one unit play, anything can happen T20

Good Luck All

[TEAMSPORTS]

Hawthorn -46.5 v Brisbane 1.5 Units @1.91 (@sportingbet)

Win + 1.36 Units

T
South Africa v Sri Lanka 1.5 Units @1.80 (@sportingbet)
Sri Lanka just the better T20 side and the conditions are also in their favour, hop on these odds quick as it is only paying 1.67 at sportsbet so there is some value there. Only 1.5 Units bcos anything can happen in a T20 but I really like this spot at those odds.

Sri Lanka Win + 1.2 Units

England v New Zealand 1 Unit @1.74 (@sportsbet)
New Zealand also just the better T20 side so some value but just one unit play, anything can happen T20

New Zealand Win + 0.74 Units

Record: 5-1-1 +4.3 Units
Pending: West Coast V Bulldogs

Adding Plays:
Couldn't find a lot of value in Aus v Pak World T20, it is quite an unpredictable game, but I am going to have a half unit wager on Finch to score a 50 at 4.25 considering he is only paying $4 to be high run scorer this is worth a shot and in his current form he pulls this off more than 1 in 4 times.
Finch to score a 50: yes - 0.5 Unit @ 4.25 (@Sportsbet)

Also want to get in early and take NZ v South Africa in World T20, feel that NZ is the better team and like some plus money odds.
South Africa v New Zealand 1 Unit @2.15 (@sportingbet)

Good Luck all

[TEAMSPORTS]

West Coast -23.5 v Western Bulldogs 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)

West Coast Win and cover easily + 1.84 Units

Finch to score a 50: yes - 0.5 Unit @ 4.25 (@Sportsbet)

Australia couldn't get the win after being in a decent position, prob didn't bowl good enough really but Finch saluted with 60 odd.
Result Win + 1.62 Units

Record 7-1-1 + 7.76

Pending: South Africa v New Zealand

Adding Play:
Getting in early I'm taking Port Adelaide -5.5 v Adelaide 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)

Leans: Sydney -17.5 v Collingwood - Collingwood looked horrible but alot can happen in a couple of weeks and they have decent record up there. Also Sydney gotta sort themselves out also.
Also lean Richmond - points, North Melb - points, West Coast - points but not much confidence so need to look into this more...

[TEAMSPORTS]

South Africa v New Zealand 1 Unit @2.15 (@sportingbet)

NZ lose 2 wickets in the final over when the had 2 senior batsmen at the crease and lose the match by 2 runs
- 1 Unit
Record: 7-1-2 +6.76 Units

Adding Play:
Arsenal v Swansea Under 2.5 1 Unit @2.1 (@sportingbet)
There wasn't much that I liked in the midweek premier league but think this game goes under, Arsenal a little cautious after a big loss and swansea happy to salvage anything away from home, bit of a gut feeling call.

Good Luck All

[TEAMSPORTS]

[QUOTE=TEAMSPORTS;21483228]

Adding Play:
Arsenal v Swansea Under 2.5 1 Unit @2.1 (@sportingbet)
/QUOTE]
My gut was wrong this time 2-2. - 1 Unit
Record:7-1-3 +5.76 Units

Looking at 2 unit play for Richmond - Carlton over 183.5 - their last 15 games have gone over this score but concerned about weather as possible storm is forecast for tmorrow. anyone in melb got any feel for the weather?? may see how its looking tmorrow

[aylukeay]

Even though i have lived here my whole life predicting Melb weather an hour in advance is a raffle let alone a day.
The site i trust most when i have to use one for betting is predicting a 30-40% chance of rain between 6-9 pm.
I will be at the game so happy to send a tweet or 2 with weather half an hour before the game if its of any use.

[Bic]

It has been raining all morning, not heavy rain, but it is wet.

[TEAMSPORTS]

Thanks for the info guys, I may leave this play alone, there are always better spots - the weather is my number one concern but also neither team looked that threatening on offence last week and I guess after 15 games in a row over this score they are prob due to go under. @aylukeay if you could chuck a tweet out on ground conditions is always helpful. I've got ur twitter bookmarked.

[OZnBa Fan]

Rain stopped a while ago mate, checked the radar and wasn't much around that should threaten the game, also the mcg drainage is prestige I think we should get agood game on this surface

[TEAMSPORTS]

Premier League Plays
Liverpool -1.5 v Tottenham 2 Units @2.10
Man Utd -1.5 v Aston Villa 2 Units @2.10
Fulham v Everton 1 Unit @1.83
AFL
Sydney -15.5 v Collingwood 1 Unit @1.90
Fyfe v Ablett most goals 1 Unit @1.85 (@sportingbet)
pending: port adelaide -5.5

[TEAMSPORTS]

Port Adelaide -5.5 v Adelaide 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)

Port Adelaide great win and cover +1.84 Units

Premier League Plays
Liverpool -1.5 v Tottenham 2 Units @2.10 result Win +2.2 Units
Man Utd -1.5 v Aston Villa 2 Units @2.10 result Win +2.2 Units
Fulham v Everton 1 Unit @1.83 result Win +0.83 Units
AFL
Sydney -15.5 v Collingwood 1 Unit @1.90 lose -1 Unit
Fyfe v Ablett most goals 1 Unit @1.85 (@sportingbet) result 0 goals each Refund

Record 11-2-4 +11.83 Units

Champions League
Real Madrid -1.5 v Dortmund 2 Units @1.91
Real Madrid at home like them to give themselves a bit of breathing room going into 2nd leg away.

[TEAMSPORTS]

AFL:
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide -3.5 2 Units @1.90 (@bookmaker)
Western Bulldogs v Richmond (1-39) 1 Unit @2.25 (@sportsbet)
Collingwood v Geelong (1-39) 1 Unit @2.30 (@sportsbet)

I like Essendon ML paying 1.50 considering 2 Units to win 1 but dont normally bet so much juice, anyone one have any thoughts on this game? really like Essendon but -14 not so much...

Also really like Hawthorn 1-39 @2.30 as freo has outs but should be able to keep it in that scoring range, will be no play for me as I am Fremantle supporter and don't want that conflict of interest while watching the game, still should be a good close game even with freos outs.
On other fremantle news a couple of my futures multis are now KO with Fyfe being rubbed out for 2 weeks and now ineligable for the brownlow - bummer as it was going to be a fun season long sweat but was under 2 units so not too worried. I like Jobe and Gary in brownlow now - umpires faves too.

[TEAMSPORTS]

Champions League
Real Madrid -1.5 v Dortmund 2 Units @1.91 Win + 1.82 Units

Record 12-2-4 +13.65 Units

AFL
Essendon v Carlton 2 Units @1.52 (@sportingbet money back if lose by 18 or less)

[TEAMSPORTS]

West Ham v Liverpool -1.5 1 Unit @2 (@sportsbet)
liverpool beast atm

GWS -20.5 v Melbourne 1 Unit @1.91 (@sportingbet)
first ever bet backing GWS I think?? actually had them to cover line in round 1 (didnt post it) so 2nd ever bet backing GWS

[TEAMSPORTS]

AFL:
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide -3.5 2 Units @1.90 (@bookmaker) result lose -2 Units
Western Bulldogs v Richmond (1-39) 1 Unit @2.25 (@sportsbet) result lose -1 Units
Collingwood v Geelong (1-39) 1 Unit @2.30 (@sportsbet) result win +1.3 Units

Essendon v Carlton 2 Units @1.52 result win +1.04 Units

West Ham v Liverpool -1.5 1 Unit @2 (@sportsbet) result lose -1 Unit

GWS -20.5 v Melbourne 1 Unit @1.91 (@sportingbet) result win +0.91 Units

3-3 -0.75 Units for weekend.
15-2-7 +12.9 Units overall record.

AFL:
Carlton -34.5 v Melbourne 2 Units @1.92 (@Sportsbet)
Both teams have been very bad i guess feel carlton has alot more than the demons to offer if they can bounc back, perhaps this line is a little low with 38 to 40 being about right?

[angelo63]

Hi Mate

Like your thread also like betting across a wide range of sports ,look forward to discussing lots of stuff

A

[TEAMSPORTS]

Hi Mate

Like your thread also like betting across a wide range of sports ,look forward to discussing lots of stuff

A

Hi Angelo thanks for the support

[angelo63]

HI Mate

What are your thoughts on champions league this week?

[TEAMSPORTS]

Haven't had a good look at champions league but there wasnt really anything I thought stood out, Chelsea should win at home but playing with a deficit may not help them against an unpredictable attacking line up that PSG has, very hard to pick game for me. chelsea needs 2-0 but i don't know if theyll get it. Real Madrid could/should win their game but anyscore that sees them go through will suit them fine hard to predict how much motivation they have besides just making it. im gonna have a look at all games later.

Want to get in early on premier league play:
Taking Everton in great form WWWWWW v Sunderland in poor home and away form LLLLDL, getting in early as think this is a great price already at 1.72 at sportingbet. Everton is really challenging for a champions league spot and they would expect to win this game if they are to acheive it, everton have been scoring alot of goals recently and AH -1 for an aditional unit at increased odds would be a decent play also if your book offers it.
Sunderland v Everton 2.5 Units @1.80 (@sportsbet)

[TEAMSPORTS]

AFL
Richmond v Collingwood -8.5 1 Unit @1.91
Pending: Carlton 2 Units, Everton 2.5 Units

Good Luck for the weekend

[TEAMSPORTS]

Carlton -34.5 v Melbourne 2 Units @1.92 (@Sportsbet) result lose -2 Units

Sunderland v Everton 2.5 Units @1.80 (@sportsbet) result win +2 Units

Richmond v Collingwood -8.5 1 Unit @1.91 result win +0.91 Units

Weekend Record: 2-1 +0.91 Units
Overall Record: 17-2-8 +13.81 Units

AFL early plays:

Adelaide -30.5 v GWS 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
Sydeny v Fremantle -4.5 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
Geelong +12.5 v Hawthorn 1 Unit @1.90 (@sportingbet)
Like a shot for 1 unit on geelong with 2 goal head start v hawthorn, 2 form teams will be a great game to watch. Went for these games early as they are the ones i like atm and feel lines will drift during the week, GL all.

[therealdealau]

Love the play on Adeladie, they will destroy GWS.

[TEAMSPORTS]

Love the play on Adeladie, they will destroy GWS.

[angelo63]

Weekend Record: 2-1 +0.91 Units
Overall Record: 17-2-8 +13.81 Units

AFL early plays:

Adelaide -30.5 v GWS 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
Sydeny v Fremantle -4.5 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
Geelong +12.5 v Hawthorn 1 Unit @1.90 (@sportingbet)
Like a shot for 1 unit on geelong with 2 goal head start v hawthorn, 2 form teams will be a great game to watch. Went for these games early as they are the ones i like atm and feel lines will drift during the week, GL all.

Good work mate


Everton was a lock , your work is great

Keep up the good work

[TEAMSPORTS]

Keep up the good work

thanks for support angelo

Adelaide -30.5 v GWS 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet) result win +1.84 Units
Sydeny v Fremantle -4.5 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet) result lose -2 Units
Geelong +12.5 v Hawthorn 1 Unit @1.90 (@sportingbet) result win +0.90 Units

similar to last weekend 2 unit plays cancel each other out and small profit on 1 unit play
weekend: 2-1 +0.74 Units
overall record: 19-2-9 + 14.55 Units


AFL:
Fremantle -21.5 v North Melbourne 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
St Kilda -16.5 v Brisbane 2 Units @1.92 (@sportsbet)
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide -4.5 1.5 Units @1.92 (@sportingbet)
Port Adelaide v Geelong -3.5 1 Unit @1.91 (@sportingbet)

Champions League:
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea 1 Unit @1.95 (@sportsbet)

[beeeej12]

Like the St. Kilda pick they have been very impressive this year (except for their game against adelaide). Brisbane have way too many good players not playing (Rich, Hanley, Leuenberger, McGrath and Staker).

[therealdealau]

Good luck this week pal, unfortunate play on Atletico, personally I think Chelsea will win this year - their stingey defensive style by Mourhino is painful to watch but brutally effective. Love the Adelaide play again against the Dogs, I think they will be too much for them. Love the confidence on Freo, wish I had enough to smash that line - hopefully the purple army come up big for you.

[TEAMSPORTS]

yeah mate atletico had their chances to win it but schwarzer had an absolute blinder so im pretty happy for him as im a big fan and he had probably cost chelsea their chance at the premier league with a mistake in his prev game so happy to see him turn it around and have a real big impact in what should be his last season.