[aylukeay]

Hello guys.
I have been running a thread in the cricket forum and posting AFL plays in their over this NAB cup so far.
Feel that its a better idea to separate the 2 and post AFL bets in this section where their seems to be a decent little community of AFL punters.

I have been successful betting AFL for a number of years, go to 2 matches per week (already been to one NAB cup game this year), AFL member and its my best sport money wise $$$ although i have been loving my results on the Horses lately, but in winter AFL takes full focus.
I specialise in handicapping the line and pricing up the h2h markets but have also had a lot of success with player prop markets like goals/disposal markets so will look to continue smashing those markets in the season proper.
I will not be posting any 'futures bets' until after the NAB cup season when i finalise list assessments and draw analysis, but until then lets try and build the bank a little with some small bets on the NAB cup.


Regular season betting 1 to 5 units per match usually in the middle, but on NAB maximum bet is 3 units, small stake plays in exhibition games is the order of the day.

[nosaij]

looking forward to some afl actions.

pie supporters here

[aylukeay]

I am a bombers man myself, but try not to be too biased

These are the bets I have posted in the cricket forum for the NAB cup

Results:
Geelong 2.5 units @ 1.62 to beat collingwood Win +1.55 units
Hawks (-36.5) 2 units @ 1.91 to beat Brisbane Win +1.82 units
Richmond (1-39) 1.82 units @ 2.20 to beat Melbourne Loss (-1.82 units)
North Melbourne (1-39) 1.55 units @ 2.20 to beat Carlton Loss (-1.55 units)
Adelaide 3 units @ 1.65 to beat Port Win + 1.95 units
Essendon +9.5 2 units @ 1.92 to beat Goldcoast win +1.82 units


Current p/l +3.77 units

Pending:

West Coast 3 units @ 2.11 to beat Freo (betezy)



Placed the 3 unit play on Saturday night after reading article about WCE's likely team..come today their are articles from the coach saying he expects the game to be a bit messy as they adjust to the new game plan which is not ideal....But the strength of the eagles team is ideal, as they are a month ahead in their prep compared to freo- and wce players are playing for spots, freo for practice. So still happy with the play, but if i was betting now instead of locking in 2 nights ago, i would perhaps decrease my bet to a slightly less confident play at bigger odds for 2 units instead of 3 in a perfect world.
This price has gone against me, but back myself to be right more often than not with early prices, which worked a treat for Ade and Geelong matches...But since we have locked and loaded the bet 48 hours ago happy to ride it out on a good underdog

Lets go!!!!

[the tross]

Goodluck. Jumped in at $2.40 ml. Bol for the season proper.

[aussieH]

Good luck. I played the dockers but not looking good for me.

[aylukeay]

Goodluck. Jumped in at $2.40 ml. Bol for the season proper.

Thanks mate! Bol to you also, $2.40 looks pretty nice at halftime with an 11 goal lead, well played!

Dockers not really having a real red hot crack that half, not ideal for you aussieH, but as a west coast backer i am loving it, naturally.

[the tross]

Jeeeus wtf. Great call bruv. Your write up was spot on. Thanks for sharing the play.

[aylukeay]

Thanks mate. Nice to get a maximum bet home especially when its an underdog...

Tonights game I have looked at a number of options. Stk to win as a big under dog. Bulldogs 1-39 hoping saints keep it close.
But at the end of the day none of them really appeal to me so its a no bet game for me.

Happy to sit on our +7.1 unit profit and wait for a better spot.


last nights match:

West Coast 3 units @ 2.11 to beat Freo win+3.33 units

Total p/l + 7.10 units

[aylukeay]

Very small play on tonight's game. GWS are pretty much at full strength here and will be looking to put on a good competitive show, Syd missing Buddy, Tippet and Goodes will perhaps hopefully lack some scoring power up forward which will hopefully keep the scores on the lower side and keep GWS in with a good chance of staying close. Always keen to fade Syd in pre season as they are serial non triers in this micky mouse stuff and will be more focused on getting games into the kids.




GWS +22.5 1.6 Units @ 1.92 to beat Sydney (Sportsbet)

[aylukeay]

Not sure what to take from tonight's match, GWS where okay for parts and very rusty for others, Syd where far from full strength and far from good but simply just got the job done. in the 3rd qtr we looked like a real chance of winning the line but after the break syd dominated the first 7 minutes of the last qtr and then both teams put the cue in the rack.
Still tracking nicely with 5.5 unit profit, and to be honest any profit made in the pre season even as low as 1 unit is a decent start to start the real stuff just building that bank ready to go round 1, and if we keep making +ev plays the winning % on turnover will take care of itself.

Interesting matches the next two nights, will want to wait until the final squads are announced and 3 emergency non players named as one team resting 2-3 of their best players that you expected to line up could change everything.


GWS +22.5 1.6 Units @ 1.92 to beat Sydney Loss (-1.6 units)



Total P/L +5.5 Units

[aylukeay]

After watching both teams last week more than happy to be on the hawks here, brent harvey out forthe roo's is a bonus, and i am convinced Brad Scott does not care about winning in nab cup at all, which can make them a team to fade especially without their captain against a superior team in hawks who very sharp last week albeit playing a weak Bris.


Hawks 3 units @ 1.57 to beat North Melbourne (palmerbet)

[the tross]

Im in at 1.50 for 2 units.
Lets get this.

[aylukeay]

Coll 1-39 points 1.71 units @ 2.30 (sportsbet)


just a small play on a market i think can occur 50% of the time, Richmond all most full strength but still i have big ? over their team fwd problems!

[aylukeay]

Hawks 3 units @ 1.57 to beat North Melbourne win +1.71 units
Coll 1-39 points 1.71 units @ 2.30 loss (-1.71 units)


Total P/L + 5.5 Units

[aylukeay]

early play for Tue


Essendon 2.5 units @ 1.60 to beat Port Adelaide (betstar)



Ess pretty much full strength here with Jobe, BJ, Chapman, Fletch etc included for this match- only 2 'unknown' players Thurlow who did a decent job as back up ruck, and Gleeson who despite being a rake impressed at half back in the first practice match. Port also a much stronger side than their last match but still playing a lot of kids and their is a clear gulf in class in these 2 squads.

[aylukeay]

Bris Lions (-18.5) 2 units @ 2.01 to beat GoldCoast (betezy)



bris have a strong team now whilst goldcoast have left their midfield at home. think this line is low even if the storms come through. bris squad clearly a goal better team per quarter on paper. i thought about lions 1-39 but if the conditions stay fine it would not surprise if they won easily.

[Grease King]

Brisbane looks great so far. The weather doesn't seem to have an effect

[casola]

Great call on the Lions, cheers

[aylukeay]

Calrton (1-39) 1.52 units @ 2.34 to beat adelaide (palmerbet)


have been running not so good on the small margin plays but winning every other afl bet... another one that appeals to me here as i see these being a reasonably close contest but carlton have a clear edge in the squads named, are of a better strength. mainly that the not best 22 players they have have all played 10-30 games thanks to being given games last few seasons, where as ade's 2nd tier are kids! i see this as being the most likely scenario so 2.34 seems big odds to me!
Just a small play lets go!

[aylukeay]

Last few days have almost been win 1 lose 1 win 2 lose 2 in afl betting but we still have a little profit which we will look to invest and increase over the rest of the NAB. Ess pretty dissapointing tonight in their work rate on field Port constantly had the extra man at the contest and at the drop of the ball, was very sad to see Carlisle named to not play as he was really missed up fwd with young JD being the only tall option not ideal for our locked in bet...Ess had the stronger team but where beat by an inferior side who wanted it more, this is pretty standard in NAB cup so we will cop it on the chin when it loses, just like we take it when it wins (wce last week)
Carl where in the perfect spot for 3/4 for our play but then gave up in the last, a lil frustrating but again it is what it is in an exhibition match, and Bris went perfectly to plan and the match played out as predicted with the weather staying clear and bris covering over 40 points which I was sort of expecting. On ward and Upward! lets go!


Essendon 2.5 units @ 1.60 to beat Port Adelaide loss (-2.5 units)
Bris Lions (-18.5) 2 units @ 2.01 to beat GoldCoast win +2.02 units
Calrton (1-39) 1.52 units @ 2.34 to beat adelaide loss (-1.52 units)


total p/l +3.5 untis

like i said the other day any profit is good profit in nab cup as it just builds the bank for round one hope we can build it a bit more over the next few days!

[aylukeay]

Insane amounts of money coming for Fremantle again, remember last week. Looks like they will be much more motivated to win than last week and are such a decent betting proposition, at least they where til the price went. Now i think the value is well and truly gone and the market has moved so much that their is nice value on the doggies all of a sudden...One thing we know is freo will be more competitive whether they switch it on and win (most likely) or whether they put up a competitive effort getting ready for 2 weeks (somewhat likely)

As such the doggies 1-39 at really big odds presents a lot of value to me on a big outsider. I just think that backing a team that lost by almost 100 points at the odds freo are currently offered at is poison especially in an exhibition match that they traditionaly do not care about, minus maybe their best player in Fyfe. With that being said them winning is clearly the most likely result.

Smallest play of the season so far but at a good price

Western Bulldogs 1-39 1 unit @ 3.20 (palmerbet)

[aylukeay]

Early play in which i expect St.k to start shorter in the 1.50 sort of range they should be that price anyway.


St Kilda 2.5 units @ 1.67 to beat gws (Pinnacle)

[aylukeay]

Sydney 1-39 points 2 units @ 2.18 to beat WCE (palmerbet)


WestC where very good last weeks but have left alot of players out for this which makes me side with swans, not interested in taking the 1.40s h2h on a team like syd who are known to not care about preseason, but think this margin is really appealing at above evens, have not been able to win one of these margin bets yet but every single one has been placed in great spots during the match, like doggies last night til they dropped off in 2nd half or calrton 2 days earlier.

Swans get the job down here i think in paper, and hopefully not by too much.

[aylukeay]

Western Bulldogs 1-39 1 unit @ 3.20 Loss (-1 unit)
Sydney 1-39 points 2 units @ 2.18 to beat WCE loss (-2 units)


Profit +0.5 units

Pending bet:
St Kilda 2.5 units @ 1.67 to beat gws (Pinnacle)

[aylukeay]

Geelong 1-39 2.5 units @ 2.20 to beat melboune (palmerbet)


The more i think about this play the more i like, especially at alice springs, demons where impressive in their opening game and if they bring the same level i think the can put up a competitive match not really keen on the line as i much prefer the extra 3 goals comfort this margin provides!

[aylukeay]

VERY EARLY PLAY AT A PRICE THAT CAN NOT LAST, ESSPECIALY IF HAYES ACCEPTS A ONE MATCH SUSPENSION.

10cents better than any other site, with no hayes and no steven this match leaves saints in a hole, they are already going to have one hell of a horrible year this year and it should start poorly against a Roo's lead (somewhat) improved Melbourne team!



Melbourne 3 units @ 1.80 to beat st kilda (bet365)

great value should be 1.66 tops imo

[aylukeay]

well the price did not last long already has been crunched into 1.72 i put an extra unit but was unable to post it prior to the price change, still think this price is going to get lower and is Overs right now.
Montagna is suspended for round 1 also, so if Hayes is indeed suspended without those 2 and Steven saints missing 3 of their best 4 players!

Dream situation for Melbourne coming into round 1



Melbourne 1 unit @ 1.72 vs StKilda (bet365)


making this a 4unit play lets start round 1 with a bang!

[aussieH]

Good luck. I think it is a good play as well. Is Dawes and Clarke likely to play.

[aylukeay]

Clarke will be touch and go but i have a source very close to melbourne fc who says they plan to nurse Clark like a baby this year so if it comes to it they will 100% err on the side of caution, and Dawes is most likely to play considering they do not play til the 2nd week of the round.

But even if neither line up i think demons will win this game in the midfield, after beefing up the midfield with Michie, Vince, Cross and Tyson they have a reasonable midfield while saints will be desimated with their 3 best mids, will provide lots of ball moving foward which will give Hogan, Howe and Harris Kennedy plenty of oppourtunities to put a good score on the board, and would expect that midfield to also chip in and get some goals, especially as vince and watts etc can rotate fwd.
I dont think melb skills are at level where they will bury the saints but feel like they should get a W this game 2/3 times imo.

[aylukeay]

just quietly demons into 1.57 right now

well done to all who got the price!

[aylukeay]

So after the Nab official profit/loss was +1.00 unit



Pending bet:
melbourne 3 units @ 1.80 and 1 unit @ 1.72



I have been asked to post some afl previews on thewisebet.com and will post some previews there i will still be posting my bets here as normal but will post some more in depth write ups on that site for anyone who is interested.

Have at least one ante post bet that i am just finalising and will post up shortly. cant wait for fri night to come around, lets go!

[aylukeay]

So as i alluded to yesterday I have written a preview and ladder predictions on all afl clubs, some contentious calls in here, so have a read of it posted here, comment/debate/hate on it whatever http://thewisebet.com/afl-season-2014-team-preview/
its obv too long to post in this thread but Here is a taste:

Hawks->
Last time the Hawks won a flag they were so hung-over that they didn’t show up until about round eight. From what we’ve seen in the NAB Challenge, they have come back without missing a beat and they look set to go from day dot. Buddy going to another premiership contender could leave a sizeable hole. Although in the past when he has missed matches the Hawks were still as good as ever and didn’t skip a beat. Roughhead and Gunston will hold the forward line in good stead, not to mention the delicious and dangerous Cyril. They stand to get back some important players who missed the majority of last year and Suckling’s efficiency off half-back will be beneficial. The Hawks pulled off a one-sided trade to secure the services of Big Boy McEvoy. Who should fit in perfectly and looks set to dominate with a big season. The midfield isn’t getting any younger but their window is still well and truly open. The front-runner of the big three. Hawthorn are still the team to beat in season 2014.
Predicted Finish: 1st



North-->
First impression was that everybody is strongly overrating the Roos who are yet to put the runs on the board in any capacity. With that being said, they have been blessed with a draw that on paper, looks as good as the Brunette from the Blurred Lines film clip (uncensored version). Dal Santo will be a nice addition, especially considering Wells and Harvey are dynamic when left alone but can fail under a tag. Now with three players like this, North will have plenty of options. Swallow’s in and under hard work will be missed in the first half of the year though. This will mean they’ll need to see improvement from their mid-tier midfielders. Like last year a lot of the goal scoring will fall on Thomas and Petrie’s shoulders. Aaron Black looks handy up forward and they will need the aforementioned midfielders to get off the leash and add to their firepower. Should be a big mover this year.
Predicted Finish: 5th


I have also posted a write up on the brownlow and discussed the top 5 in the market and my bet who is not in the top 5,
http://thewisebet.com/2014-afl-brownlow-prediction/
much more discussion on the likely chances as well as in depth look at cotchin but for mine
In 2012, Cotch really burst onto the scene with 26 votes at 1.18 per match, this is a count that could win a Brownlow in a lower scoring year, and he can certainly spring off that to improve. From what we have seen in the NAB Challenge he looks back to his best, having an impact when he rests up forward.

[aylukeay]

One thing that might be interesting to do is run a brownlow count on sbr if anyone else is interested through out the year and see how we can attack it at the end of the year. but the only futures bet i am making this season is on cotchin to win the brownlow, extended write up in the post above but monster odds for his capabilities for mine. i am in for 1 unit.


Cotchin to win the brownlow @ $15 sportsbet

Will post round 1 plays soon,gl.

[MustWinPlease]

Interesting round 1 games

Will Fremantle win? I'm liking them but collingwood could really step up their game in front of a packed crowd at etihad
here is a random multi put together maybe for a fun bet if anyone is interested, includes aleauge too

Melbourne victory DRAW NO BET at Perth Glory
Sydney +40 at GWS
Fremantle -5.5 at Collingwood
Richmond 1-39 at Gold coast
Port Adelaide +37.5 at Carlton

[aylukeay]

I know zero about the a-league but the rest of the legs look solid, good luck mate! thanks for sharing.


Just doing some write up's for the first round and then will be posting some plays. some nice odds in the most disposal markets i am especially keen on.