1. #1
    micase
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    Auckland Nine's

    Hopefully there is a bit of interest out there for the Auckland 9's, it is going to be a hectic two days of footy. Still working through some angles/ hunches I have for the futures betting but thought I'd post some plays and get some thoughts on it.

    My main play so far is on the North Queensland Cowboys. I have them at $6 to win their pool and at $19.27 to win the whole thing. Looking at their line up, they don't have the big names that some of the other squads have which I hope is creating some value. Their forward pack looks more explosive and mobile than others in their pool (Tamou, Tariq Sims, Taumalolo, Reithmuller and Cooper) while their backs I would say are serviceable.

    Of course things will be a little clearer after we see some of the first round games played but I'll be leaning on teams that have a core group of explosive game changing players surrounded by handy first graders who will have better defensive skills than their U20 counterparts.

    Appreciate any tips or angles that you guys can come up with and good luck!

  2. #2
    Mase of Base
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    About to start.

    Going to check out a few games and see if I like it, nice day and good crowd.

    Newcastle -7.5 @ 3.30 for a very small starter!

  3. #3
    Mase of Base
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    Lost.

    Titans ML @ 1.50 1U

    Speed wins hopefully.

  4. #4
    Mase of Base
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    Moimoi is going to steam roll Freddy. No play in this one though.

  5. #5
    Mase of Base
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    Heading out but it's been entertaining enough, was worried they may not take it seriously but everyone seems to be there was even some near biff in that first game.

    Going to fade all those 1.25-1.30 shots later I can't see how there's prices like that in this game.

  6. #6
    Mase of Base
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    Tigers just won at 3.70. Broncos and Warriors look like two to not fade the rest are fair game, Newcastle @ 2.15 in the next.

  7. #7
    Mase of Base
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    Freddy Fitler what a try old boy! Roosters get up at 3.10 didn't take that though unfortunately.

    Dogs @ 2.50

  8. #8
    Mase of Base
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    Meh Doggies suck, first dog not to cash this second round. Warriors should win next but not much on offer in terms of odds.

  9. #9
    Mase of Base
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    Alright I'm about 50 posts in a row here so at the moment this is what I'm taking the rest of the way:

    Warriors 3.3U @ 1.30
    Cows (not sure amount depends on warriors) @ 1.60
    Dragons 1U @ 2.35

  10. #10
    Mase of Base
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    Painfully obvious that the Warriors have put in many more hours at training for this than everyone else. Even down to Johnson's kicking as he's the only guy making them from 15m either side of the post and two extra points will be big tomorrow.

    Gonna be juiced all the way to the final but it should be money, enough class, solid d and more importantly it looks like they know what they're doing. The other sides will improve but I don't think enough.

  11. #11
    Mase of Base
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    Damn this is easy, going to add Storm 1U @ 3.70 try and get two in a day.

  12. #12
    Mase of Base
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    Bang. Now lets finish this off Dragons!

  13. #13
    davopnz
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    had a good day myself, i think warriors to win the tourny @ $2.37 is outstanding value, they are clearly a cut above

  14. #14
    micase
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mase of Base View Post
    Painfully obvious that the Warriors have put in many more hours at training for this than everyone else. Even down to Johnson's kicking as he's the only guy making them from 15m either side of the post and two extra points will be big tomorrow.

    Gonna be juiced all the way to the final but it should be money, enough class, solid d and more importantly it looks like they know what they're doing. The other sides will improve but I don't think enough.
    I think this has been a bigger factor than everything else. The kickoffs from some teams have been superb, drilling them towards the sideline or similar to union giving their outside backs a chance at it. Other teams seem to be approaching this as a standard kick it long and defend type of game which will not work.

    All in all a very entertaining day, disappointing results wise for me but seeing my man Freddy get an intercept try down at the Cloey Hotel was unreal, the crowd went wild.

  15. #15
    Mase of Base
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    Like most of the favs for the final group games so will lay off most.

    Titans ML @ 1.70. Carneys hamstring has him in doubt I believe and I can't imagine the Sharks would risk him for this. He plays It'll be a no bet though.
    Broncos @ 1.87
    Dragons @ 2.35
    Panthers @ 1.60

  16. #16
    Mase of Base
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    Titans were really bad! Sharks on the other hand pretty good they could do some damage in the latter rounds.

    Added a play on the Knights but too late for here.

    Dogs looked dreadful yesterday contemplating the Roosters by 8 or more but waiting on how this plays out.

  17. #17
    Mase of Base
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    Knights are rolling but the line on the margin dropped like a stone it's not tempting now. Can't justify the ML.

  18. #18
    Mase of Base
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    Dogs ML @ 3.10, worth a shot with no Pearce for the Roosters.

  19. #19
    Mase of Base
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    Dogs about to win easily! Adding another unit to the Broncs.

  20. #20
    micase
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    Pearce being out definitely hurt the Roosters, try to shop around for your odds though as the Bulldogs were $3.60 for the win on Bet365. Because of the pace of the games I think the books are struggling to all come up with a concensus on odds for certain teams. I've had about 5 or 6 decent Arbs this tournament already.

  21. #21
    Mase of Base
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    Quote Originally Posted by micase View Post
    Pearce being out definitely hurt the Roosters, try to shop around for your odds though as the Bulldogs were $3.60 for the win on Bet365. Because of the pace of the games I think the books are struggling to all come up with a concensus on odds for certain teams. I've had about 5 or 6 decent Arbs this tournament already.

    I only use the local New Zealand TAB unfortunately.

    Do you like the 'bonus zone'? It seems like too many points for me especially with the difficulty of kicking drop goals from even 15m either side of the posts. Almost certain 7 compared with 4 pointers is a massive difference in a short game.

    Eels with a poorly awarded try to make it 7-7 arghhh.

  22. #22
    Mase of Base
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    Refs are having a shocker they better win this it should be 18-0.

  23. #23
    micase
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    I'm on Cowboys +10.5 so nothing wrong with any of those decisions for me .

    The kickoffs are proving to be a massive difference for either team.

  24. #24
    dRavidC
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    nz vs north qld - game of the tournament

  25. #25
    Mase of Base
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    Crazy line moves from my original prices in these two last group games. Dragons moved almost 50c in my favor, Penrith at the moment moved 30c against me!

    Might change that Penrith bet as they look good so assume someone/s out.

  26. #26
    micase
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    Well the Raiders have done me a solid and kept the Cowboys in it for me. New Zealand still look the team to beat, while Johnson and to a lesser extent Tomkins have been playing as expected it's their lesser known forwards that are doing an awesome job. Not producing too many errors and are absolute beasts.

  27. #27
    Mase of Base
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    Broncos ML @ 2.60 in the quarter.

  28. #28
    the tross
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    Where's sando ?
    Last edited by the tross; 02-15-14 at 08:24 PM. Reason: wrong post

  29. #29
    the tross
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    Keep it going mase, I'll be tailing the rest of the way. On fire!!!

  30. #30
    Mase of Base
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    Haha the Broncs goal kicking is horrific! Those were from pretty much in front!

    Ohhh Mullen with the hammy, poor guy.

  31. #31
    the tross
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    Massive blow for knights fans.
    That's a bitch .

  32. #32
    dRavidC
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    anyone think the eels win over the sharks?

  33. #33
    Mase of Base
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    Quote Originally Posted by dRavidC View Post
    anyone think the eels win over the sharks?
    Pick em live at HT, they've been slightly the better side imo so with a 2pt lead I'm on it!

  34. #34
    Mase of Base
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    Couldn't bring it home. Terrible pass to put them up was frustrating but the Sharks played pretty well again so it'll be interesting to see what the books do with the semi v Brisbane.

  35. #35
    dRavidC
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    nz -8.5

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