[Coopertrooper]

Sorry shhplit, wasn't around last night to reply. With the outs I would have thought Fremantle would win it, but you can't take anything for granted in the pre-season. That article from the AFL's website was discussing the inital squads. It put the emphasis on West Coast, but as it notes Freo had very few missing from its Grand Final side.

NAB Play #6 - Freo/West Coast Over 174.5, $1.90 X 0.5 units (Bet365)

NAB Play #7 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.20 X 0.5 units (Luxbet)

Probably should have been happy with just 1 bet on the match. I tend to stick with the match totals than team totals as you can get some funny results like this one was, so the damage was very limited. Total sailed over easily with West Coast almost covering the line on their own. Shows how wild this result was when the underdog almost covers the total by itself!!

Pre-season record: 3-4 ​+0.25 units

[Coopertrooper]

NAB Play #8 - Dogs/St kilda Over 166.5, $1.90 X 1 unit (Bet365)

In warm conditions, this hits with little trouble in my eyes. St Kilda going in without a number of key defensive players, which sees the bulldogs come in as solid favourites. However, the conditions are cool, with 4-5mm falling in the past 2 hours and the potential for a bit of a breeze, which is why this total is this low. Having looked at the radar, it doesn't look like much more will fall before game time and hopefully not much will fall for much of the match. Even with some rain I think this can go over, as both sides are full of enthusiasm, particularly the bulldogs who will be looking for some serious improvement on their start to last season. With my pre-season bet sizes halved, this goes from 2 units to 1. One unit at 166.5 should give us a live chance all night.

[shhplit]

THanks for your reply...

I see the game total tonight has dropped to 142.5....still confident on the over?

[Coopertrooper]

Wow. A small front of rain which was expected to have 1-2mm just decided to dump 40mm in 20 minutes. What a drastic change :|

[Coopertrooper]

THanks for your reply...

I see the game total tonight has dropped to 142.5....still confident on the over?

Not now mate, a freak rain pattern changed everything in 20 minutes. Crazy that it could change that quickly. They took the market down, don't think I have ever seen that before, they normally just keep adjusting it. I'm spewing that such a small patch of rain could go from light to extreme heavy just as it happened to hit Geelong.

[shhplit]

ahh ok....yeah it keeps dropping in my book...132.5 now

does weather really affect their ability to score so much?

im thinking there will be more errors....

[Coopertrooper]

Down to 135.5 now. In light of this rain, the small margins now create a chance to try and cover ourselves.
NAB Play #9 - Dogs 1-20, $3.60 X 0.5 units (Bet365)

Dogs go in with the better side, a 20 point margin will be fairly generous in these conditions. Don't think those odds will last for long now!

[Coopertrooper]

ahh ok....yeah it keeps dropping in my book...132.5 now

does weather really affect their ability to score so much?

im thinking there will be more errors....

Yeah, this much rain will make the ball heavier and slippery, so it slides off the foot more. Hard to get the ball to move far, so everyone moves in closer creating a congested game where the ball is hard to move as often. Typically incoming rain is adjusted for (the books can't just ignore it), but this wild swing of over 5-6 goals in the blink of an eye shows how unexpected this rain has been.

Sometimes it works for you, sometimes against. I can't say I've ever seen a swing this wild though, I really am in shock at this.

[Coopertrooper]

And now another update... the ground is flooded from this crazy downpour and the match will likely be cancelled. I certainly hope so! Just saw pictures and it is a giant swimming pool, can't see how it will be deemed fit for play.

[yippa82]

And now another update... the ground is flooded from this crazy downpour and the match will likely be cancelled. I certainly hope so! Just saw pictures and it is a giant swimming pool, can't see how it will be deemed fit for play.

Game is on starting 7.40pm

[Coopertrooper]

Can't believe they aren't just cancelling what is only a pre-season game, where there is no longer even a competition. The drainage would have to be pretty good, because with the later start and the wind change not kicking in more rain could hit ate about 8-8.30. This is how it looked at about 5.30-6pm:

[MatI]

wow, great photo.

[Coopertrooper]

Crazy how it looks so dry now!

Quarter have been changed to 17 minutes though, because of the time delay. Taking 15% of gametime off the clock surely will void totals bets? I've never heard of it happen before so not sure how they would rule on it for an AFL game. They've probably never expected it to happen, new territory here...

[MatI]

hopefully it gets voided. With the reduced qtr length you have a good case.

I was going to take the over but ended up staying away with all the uncertainty.

[Coopertrooper]

Okay, so the total bet was placed before the time change, and under Bet365's rules they would normally say it was placed at incorrect odds. So, Under backers would have got paid out at a lower adjusted price, while over backers have had their bets voided as a goodwill gesture. So:

NAB Play #8 - Dogs/St kilda Over 166.5, $1.90 X 1 unit (Bet365)

Voided

NAB Play #9 - Dogs 1-20, $3.60 X 0.5 units (Bet365)

Wins. I'll remove the voided bet from the record completely, rather than calling it a push:

Pre-season record: 4-4 +1.55 units

So the 8 bets have had a risk of 3.25 unit for a return of 1.55 units. It may only be small, but any profit in the pre-season just helps to build more of a buffer for when the real stuff kicks off

[Coopertrooper]

NAB Play #9 - GWS/Sydney Under 185.5, $1.88 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

I think they've got this one wrong. Sportsbet have been fairly cautious in the pre-season, but now have put a total up (Bet365 has $.190 at 184.5 for over backers) and I think it could be ripe for the picking. This ground (Startrack Oval, aka Manuka Oval) hosts a handful of AFL games each year, which have been reasonably high scoring, pushing this line into the 180's. However, the giants are coming in with a very strong squad and will not want to get blown away here. The swans are not playing Tippett or Franklin, so it is hard to see the swans kicking a massive score, which keeps this total down. I think both sides will be tentative early and it should remain low-scoring, so I'm happy to risk a unit on it.

[Coopertrooper]

Might be sweating this one out to the end. 27 points in the first quarter and it looked home, but then 67 points in the second.

[Coopertrooper]

Weird game, went from such a low scoring game to being super-high scoring since then. Disappointing that GWS couldn't keep Sydney from almost hitting 100 points by 3/4 time with a full side in, I think they are in for another long, hard year. No defence. Although, of course, if the last score had faded just a little bit more and been a point, the total ends up being 185, which would have made this one a winner. First bit of bad luck for the year I guess.
Pre-season record: 4-5 +0.55 units

Profit for the pre-season took a hit after the only 1 unit play so far loses.

[Coopertrooper]

NAB Play #10 - Hawthorn -9.5, $1.92 X 0.75 units (Sportsbet)

Taking the risk before the final sides come out here, but the hawks have out up a fairly strong squad. The roos are trying a number of forwards who are yet to really make it at AFL level (Currie) and some are coming off injuries (Tarrant, Daw) in an otherwise reasonable squad. After seeing how switched on the hawks already are, I don't see them losing here, even if they drop a couple of stars.

[Grease King]

I like the play Coop. Got any leans on the earlier games?

[Coopertrooper]

Earlier as in round 1 of the proper season? I don't think I'll be looking at most of them until the NAB games are over. Collingwood's line will be a consideration though, have a better schedule running into the match than the dockers.

[Coopertrooper]

Nice easy winner last night with the hawks far too good.

Pre-season record: 5-5 +1.26 units


Another play for today, similar to last night:

NAB play #11 - Collingwood -7.5, $1.92 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

I think Collingwood go into this match looking fairly strong, with a solid line-up. The tigers have named a pretty strong squad, but have struggles to match up well on the pies in recent times. With a number of inclusions the pies should get the job done.

[Coopertrooper]

Both sides swapped their intensity from last week. Richmond wanted the win, Collingwood suddenly experimented a lot. Tigers finally put it on the board later in the match as they overwhelmed a lost Collingwood defence.

Pre-season record: 5-6 +0.76 units

[Coopertrooper]

NAB Play #12 - Adelaide First Half +4.5, $1.95 X 0.75 units (Bet365)

Again I am in before the final teams are released, but the crows won't likely send a strong squad and then drop the big names to sit on the sidelines. The blues have a fairly strong line-up, but won't want a tough hit-out, especially when easing in Thomas for his first game. I think the crows will show more intensity, and I think that will show strongest early in the match.

[Grease King]

I took under 190 on this match and tailed your pick for a half unit. BOL

[Coopertrooper]

Carlton goal right near the end of the quarter to kill it, geez. Nce hit with the under Grease.
Pre-season record: 5-7 +0.01 units


All the profits gone with late killer goals in the last few nights. Need a change of luck to get them back before the proper season.

[Coopertrooper]

Went out and came back in to see the crows win by 6 goals. As you can imagine that didn't improve my mood

[Coopertrooper]

Getting on early, may be a bit busy tomorrow:

NAB Play #13 - Essendon -9.5, $1.92 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)


The bombers come in with a pretty strong side. After losing their first match, I get the feeling they will be hungry to get their first win of the year (albeit pre-season), especially against a side that they can really test their mettle against in port. The port outfit is stronger than its first match, but still appears to be a weaker squad than the bombers, so making a play while I can rather than missing this game.

[Coopertrooper]

NAB Play #13 - Essendon -9.5, $1.92 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

Despite trying hard and with a stronger squad, and having had 10 of the first 11 scores, the bombers still go well under. You could have counted the cash halfway through the first, but luck has been fickle this pre-season.


Pre-season record: 5-8 -0.49 units

[aylukeay]

tonight's match the reason we love or hate NAB betting depending what side of the coin we are on.

[Coopertrooper]

Winding down the plays as the pre-season has taken a nasty turn, but have one for tonight:

NAB Play #14 - Sydney Half Time 13-24, $4.90 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

West Coast have sent over a fairly weak squad. After getting fitness into players in their first match, they don't appear to be taking this too seriously. The swans haven't named on overly-strong line-up, but the inclusion of Franklin is sure to be of much interest. The swans easily dispatched GWS last week, despite not going in with much intent (GWS had a strong line-up, but are still a long way off AFL level). They have always taken pre-season games semi-seriously, but this outfit is strong enough to defeat a bunch of West Coast's kids. I think they will put their advantage on the board early, with the game slowing down from there. Getting the 13-24 range at nearly 4-1 odds is fantastic value, so worth a shot here.

[Coopertrooper]

Neither side seems to have put any focus on this match. A bit of drizzle and the ball is uncontrollable, wtf? Just 5 goals scored in the first half with Sydney only leading by 4 points. was still alive right until the end, with a player considering running in for a supergoal in the dying seconds to put it to 13 points making an error. Bugger.

Pre-season record: 5-9 -0.99 units

That will do my pre-season bets. This has been an ugly previous week for punters in the pre-season. For me, 4 loses in a row have cost a profit going into the season, turning it into a deficit of practically a unit. Will just have to make it up in round 1 hopefully!

[Grease King]

Better to lose one unit getting a feel for the season than lose a buch throughout the season!

[Coopertrooper]

I hope there is a bit to glean from it all, but I'm not sure how reliable any of the form will be. As expected for pre-season, only the individuals form really provides any insight. The dees also playing very high-possession football is a major turn-around. But, it may have an immediate impact, or it may not work while the skill level isn't there yet. I still think the first few rounds will give us a fair idea about Melbourne this year (just singling their side out because they played tonight and they had such a drastic change in style).

[Coopertrooper]

Round 1

The footy is finally starting this week! I've got the lines for the matches that have gone up thus far (lines are from sportsbet), but with some lines going up early and it being a split round, they aren't really that close to be opening lines:


Week 1:
Collingwood +4.5 / Fremantle -4.5
GWS +50.5 / Sydney -50.5
Gold Coast +12.5 / Richmond -12.5
Carlton -8.5 / Port Adelaide +8.5

Week 2:
Geelong -21.5 / Adelaide +21.5
North Melbourne -5.5 / Essendon +5.5
Hawthorn -47.5 / Brisbane +47.5
St Kilda +12.5 / Melbourne -12.5
West Coast -23.5 / Western Bulldogs +23.5


Jumping onto quite a few plays early. I think there is some very good value, particularly away from the line bets.


Play #1 - Collingwood/Fremantle Over 172.5, $1.88 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)

Play #2 - St Kilda/Melbourne Under 175.5, $1.91 X 2.5 units (Bet365)

Play #3 - Port Adelaide ML, $2.30 X 1 unit (Sportsbet) *This has a money back special

Play #4 - North Melbourne -5.5, $1.92 X 2.5 units (Sportsbet)


There are some good early totals here. Collingwood and Fremantle square off at Etihad, with both sides going in fairly strong. Fremantle, lead by Ross Lyon, are capable of playing a dour style of football, however the pies are looking to play higher-risk football through the middle of the ground, which should lead to a high-scoring game. Once Collingwood develop the skill level to pull it off they will be a dangerous side, but while it is still new there are bound to be games where scoring can occur quickly and easily both ways. Added to that the trend of high-scoring matches early in the year in recent years and this one looks like value.

The other match is St Kilda/Melbourne. Despite this trend of high early scores, these 2 teams still look to be bottom 4 sides, with the saints missing a plethora of talent and old heads for round 1 with retirements, trades, delistings, injuries and suspension. They don't look to have a very attacking line-up with so many names out. Conversely, the laughing stock of the AFL, the demons, now have their knight in shining armour, Paul Roos. With his coaching prowess, the dees have already made drastic game-style changes in the off-season, becoming an ultra-high possession team. Their first pre-season match produced 460+ disposals, surprisingly the most for any Paul Roos team, despite his previous high-possession plans with the swans. Having watched their pre-season games closely, the dees have appeared to made this change mostly down back, where they looked to kick backward as the first option on many occasions, to enable them to slow the game down and to not lose possession. I would not be surprised to see this continue. And while the side still has very poor skills which could still lead to some beltings this year, the saints aren't a team likely to hand them out, even with a stronger side in. This is my favourite play of the opening round and I am happy to get the early line at Bet365, on for 2.5 units.

As I have previously mentioned in this thread, I think Port Adelaide are in for a big year. The power and blues both go into round 1 with similar pre-season form and similar-strength squads, and both have similar expectation levels, both hoping to win a final as they both did last year. The best formline for the 2 sides comes from their last encounter. Carlton were playing for 8th position, needing a win to get it, while port were locked into 7th. Port were superior for the first 3 quarters, but Carlton lifted as their entire season was on the line, getting up by a point. From that game, I felt that the power had the better side and are capable of beating Carlton when both sides have something to play for. While that form is now a bit dated, I still believe that it can hold true this year, so the $2.30 on offer represents great value. I had port as slight favourites (around $1.80), so putting a unit on for the value bet. Also, this bet has a money back special (Up to $100 if your side leads at any break and loses the match, only on ML bets), so I will record any money back specials/bonuses in its own tally.

North Melbourne also come into this season with plenty of hope and expectations. The roos have looked solid in the pre-season and have had continual development of their young up and coming stars in recent times, with only Swallow and Harper likely to be out of their best 22 (arguably Tarrant too). The bombers come off a tough season both on and off the field, after off-field scandal with the potential use of PED's caused as much drama on the field as it did off, culminating in the bombers losing their position in the finals due to disqualification, a first in the AFL. The bombers have looked flat and pre-occupied over the pre-season and the media continues to hound players, last week naming 14 players (10 current bombers players) who are still under a cloud from the ASADA investigation, while their continuing uncertain future will be weighing heavily on them. With coach Bomber Thompson being pushed into coaching the bomber while James Hird serves his 12 month suspension, it does not appear to be a cohesive unit. 2.5 unit play on the line, a generous -5.5 from sportsbet.


I also like a multi for the first weekend:


Play #5 - Parlay: Total Odds $5.40 X 0.5 units (Sportsbet)

-Collingwood/Fremantle Over 172.5, $1.88
-Gold Coast +36.5, $1.25
-Port Adelaide ML, $2.30

Have discussed the over and Port ML above, while I think the Gold Coast are a team capable of beating the tigers, but may also have an unstable start to the season. Taking 6 goals in should be more than enough of a safety margin, while adding 25% to the value of the multi.

I will have more plays through round 1, mostly for the second weekend when it rolls closer. Good luck to everyone playing in round 1