1. #1
    Gee
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    Brownlow Picks thread

    Lets start this away from the shills and any discussion involving shills and touts. Just out of interest from those who have seen his FB, is betjam an indigenous fellow? That would probably be my guess. I'm hoping he also pays tax on that $1 a game. I hate touts so much that an ATO tip off and full audit may be in order. I hope her books all match up!

    Anyway, onto the point. Either post your plays in here or plays that you think you have value. Lets discuss. I am still waiting to see a few mock brownlows before locking too much in.

    Anyway, my thoughts, on AFL teams props (which is all I've really looked at), Dangerfield should not be $1.01, which is an implied probably of $99.01% I definitely intend on laying that on betfair when there is some liquidity in the market. I think Sloane (currently $9) is massive value, which I've hit small, but waiting to lay Dangerfield.

    Similarly, I don't think Boak should be at $1.11. Ebert came in and won at long odds last year, but I like either Hartlett or Wingard (no bet yet). Wingard and Hartlett both get noticed because of how they play. Probably more so Wingard, but Hartlett gets a lot more of the ball. Again, I've laid Wingard small but waiting for a betfair market with some liquidity.

    Cartlon team bet is interesting. Mclean polls ok traditionally, but I don't think he deserves to be a $2.50 favourite. Murphys year wasn't great either. While he was inconsistent, I think Walker will pick up enough votes at $12. He may not win, but if you want to play for value, do it. That being said, playing for value on an annual event is not always the best idea.

    You gotta remember with a lot of these mid-ladder teams, 10-13 points can often win it, which is only 4 very, very good games.

    Back with some plays on the group markets soon enough, but expecting insight from the guys with AFL threads here!

    Finally, there is definitely value in this market I think, but I haven't gone through it in any detail yet. One of those guys vs Ablett is massive value. Possibly betting Danger at $13 and Sloane for Crows bet may work out well.


    • Gary Ablett - Scratch
      13.00
      Joel Selwood +3.5
      5.50
      Scott Pendlebury +5.0
      5.50

      Dane Swan +5.5
      8.50

      Sam Mitchell +6.5
      10.00
      Patrick Dangerfield +6.5
      13.00

      Michael Barlow +8.0
      13.00
      Kieren Jack +8.5
      12.00
      Ryan Griffen +8.5
      13.00

      Dan Hannebery +9.0
      13.00
      Jobe Watson +9.5
      12.00
      Travis Boak +9.5
      11.00

      Jarryd Roughead +10.0
      13.00
      Trent Cotchin +10.0
      10.00

  2. #2
    aussieH
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    Ablett is no value. I took swan, Barlow Mitchell,Watson, rough head at different times. However that last game by ablett may get him over the line. But the 1.60 for ablett is to short.

  3. #3
    OZnBa Fan
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    Pendlebury

  4. #4
    thecattery12
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    Jack will poll 20 votes this year. I'd take that handicap.

  5. #5
    Gee
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    OKKKK. its on.

    I like Selwood, Danger and Griffin (now +10) on the handicap vs Ablett.

    Howe to win melb at $21. Murphy to win Carlton. Hannebury to win swans. Hodge is good value to win Hawks. Have a few others too. What is everyone else on?

  6. #6
    therealdealau
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    I'm quite keen on Hanley to win Brisbane's count. Thoughts Gee?

  7. #7
    Gee
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    Quote Originally Posted by therealdealau View Post
    I'm quite keen on Hanley to win Brisbane's count. Thoughts Gee?
    Funny you post that. I put $30 on at $5 about half an hour ago! Theres no way in the world Rockliff should be $1.20.

    There is always a bit of value with the teams that aren't going to poll a lot of votes.

  8. #8
    therealdealau
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    Funny you post that. I put $30 on at $5 about half an hour ago! Theres no way in the world Rockliff should be $1.20.

    There is always a bit of value with the teams that aren't going to poll a lot of votes.
    I agree, I've done my own research and have Hanley edging Rockliff in a close one. His odds are too short, I'm glad you like this as well.

  9. #9
    Gee
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    Yeah, as much as I hate the term, I think its a coinflip and maybe even marginally Hanley's, so you'll take $5 on that any day of the week!!

  10. #10
    Coopertrooper
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    I think the overall market is sharp, don't think I'll be touching it.

    Good value in some team winners though:

    Cox $12
    Ward $3
    Murphy $3.50

    A parlay of those 3 gives $126 (or $42 taking Ward out, in case Cameron attracts votes).

    Cox is huge value there, had some reasonable games early on, then petered out. Priddis is consistent but doesn't star in games, so has polled poorly last year. With few west coast wins, a guy like Cox is a big show.

    I think Ward is big value, because Cameron is a big unknown in polling. Kicked plenty of goals so stood out in the media, but he doesn't do a whole heap outside of that at the moment. Ward is a good leader, he will get votes in their wins. Hard to see Cameron polling much in their big losses.

    Marc Murphy shouldn't be those odds, surely? Gun midfielder who picks up a few votes. McLean as favourite is strange, he has too many quiet days. Walker a smokey but don't think he will out-poll Murphy.

    Interesting to also see that Barlow only polled 1 vote last year. Fyfe tends to poll very well, not surprising to see him a short favourite for the dockers.

  11. #11
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by therealdealau View Post

    I agree, I've done my own research and have Hanley edging Rockliff in a close one. His odds are too short, I'm glad you like this as well.
    Rockliff far too short, although I think he still wins fairly comfortably.

    I saw a forum I use do their own polling on games (with neutral supporters casting votes). They are only small and some biases creep in, but they had Rockliff winning their count. Thought that was interesting, so I'll wait and see just how well he polls.

  12. #12
    Gee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    I think the overall market is sharp, don't think I'll be touching it.

    Good value in some team winners though:

    Cox $12
    Ward $3
    Murphy $3.50

    A parlay of those 3 gives $126 (or $42 taking Ward out, in case Cameron attracts votes).

    Cox is huge value there, had some reasonable games early on, then petered out. Priddis is consistent but doesn't star in games, so has polled poorly last year. With few west coast wins, a guy like Cox is a big show.

    I think Ward is big value, because Cameron is a big unknown in polling. Kicked plenty of goals so stood out in the media, but he doesn't do a whole heap outside of that at the moment. Ward is a good leader, he will get votes in their wins. Hard to see Cameron polling much in their big losses.

    Marc Murphy shouldn't be those odds, surely? Gun midfielder who picks up a few votes. McLean as favourite is strange, he has too many quiet days. Walker a smokey but don't think he will out-poll Murphy.

    Interesting to also see that Barlow only polled 1 vote last year. Fyfe tends to poll very well, not surprising to see him a short favourite for the dockers.
    Dude, they won 1 game, but Ward should poll 3 in that one. Might be enough to win it (probably more like 5 or 6) Forwards do get overlooked a lot in brownlow voting though, so not a bad play. Not a bad play when 6 votes should be enough to win it and he's basically guaranteed 3 in that one. Cameron probably gets 2 in that game and he might get another 2 in that game he kicked 7 against the Pies (out of 10 goals).

    You're kidding about Priddis right? He didn't poll that well last year (still picked up 9, which if repeated could be enough to win it at West Coast this season), but polled 19 votes in 2011 and 13 in 2012. Historically, he polls extremely well. Just have a look at him historically.

    Yeah, i said in my first post I didn't like Murphy, but then when I did the work I think he's the value play. Walker a bit of a smokey.

  13. #13
    Coopertrooper
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    Hahaha, that should say losses with Ward.

    No, I really think Priddis had some oustanding seasons 2-3 years ago and was rewarded. His last 2 years hasn't been up to that level, and his polling dropped off last year. I think that is a sign that the umpires reward him when he plays well, but don't just give him 15+ votes like Goodes or Black every year. I see him getting about 8-9 votes, with Cox getting 10-11. A guy like Scott Selwood will be a smokey there if he can pick up some 3 vote games.

    West Coast haven't won enough games to get big vote-getters, and Cox will have at least 2 3-vote games, with some likely 2-vote games as well. Big hauls in 2 of their wins early on will make him tricky to catch.

  14. #14
    s2230011
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    I got no idea , but have a couple of different bets on Sam Mitchell cause I found a bookie offering him on $21 when others had him in to $8. Judging by the discussions here I'm not holding my breath but good old 'value' got me biting

  15. #15
    Gee
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    Cooper: Yup, that'd make more sense! I get the logic on Priddis... TBH, I haven't followed either of their seasons that closely. Statistically, Priddis averaged more touches a game this year than he did in that 2011 season. Good luck on big cox though! I'm not going to touch this one.

    And yup, losses definitely made more sense with Ward.

    Getting Mitchell at $21 is fantastic. If you can get a place line based on that at $5 or so that'd be phenomenal. Definitely worth a crack, given what the market is telling us.

  16. #16
    s2230011
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    We'll see got him in three markets at good value. I think his price shot up on Thursday night after that guy predicted him to win on the footy show, looks every man and his dog reacted to that but I was having a look around on Friday and ladbrokes had left him very good value so we'll see

  17. #17
    Aussports
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    any thoughts on
    Harvey for most votes north 2.10
    Travis Boak top 5 finish , $7.00
    Im also liking Joel Selwood, fave out at 2.10

  18. #18
    binomial
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    Dean Cox more votes than Scott Thompson $2.35 IAS takes my fancy.
    .
    Thompson had a couple of decent games but looked past it alot of the time, i'd be suprised if he got more tham a handfull

  19. #19
    Gee
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    Bloodbath. Can't remember a year when I think 15 out of 18 club favourites got up (someone correct me if that's wrong; I can't remember who was fav at st kilda, but I can't have been Steven. The other two were Walker and Hannebury). I was on Hannebury and liked Walker, who i liked, but ended up taking Murphy.

    Edit: actually, maybe Swallow wasn't a fav either. Still a lot of hot favourites getting up.

  20. #20
    Coopertrooper
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    Every year the varying results in the Brownlow are crazy. Ablett a deserved winner, but how does Swan get close? He had his quietest year in about 3-4 years!

  21. #21
    therealdealau
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    Bloodbath. Can't remember a year when I think 15 out of 18 club favourites got up (someone correct me if that's wrong; I can't remember who was fav at st kilda, but I can't have been Steven. The other two were Walker and Hannebury). I was on Hannebury and liked Walker, who i liked, but ended up taking Murphy.

    Edit: actually, maybe Swallow wasn't a fav either. Still a lot of hot favourites getting up.
    I believe Montagna won St Kilda comfortably - he was a clear favourite. Favourite of North was Boomer.

  22. #22
    Gee
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    Yep, you're right. I didn't notice that they put the ineligible players down the bottom on AFL.com.au. So that is still 15 out 18. You usually see more upsets at the small clubs when a small amount of votes wins it.

    Onto the GF. Where you watching the game pal or you heading over? I don't think Freo cover the 7.5, so I may not bet this. I will get bashed by everyone around me if I bet on the Hawks. It is the one time where my peers might influence my wager!

  23. #23
    OZnBa Fan
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    -9.5 at Bet365

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