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2013 eSports - Starcraft 2
2013 WCS Season 2
I'm usually big on tailing guys coming off a loss in eSports. Even on pinny the lines move a lot with public money, so a lot of short term trends are overvalued, and heavy favorites are pounded hard.
So why do I like M C at -231, against all odds?, the line being almost 100 cents worse than at their last encounter a few weeks ago, with very similar conditions. In fact, the match should be even closer, Welmu maybe having learned something from being lit up so badly with a quick 0-3.
M C is the most successful player of all time in StarCraft, leading the total earnings list at $384,000, and having several major tournament wins under his belt, including 2 GSLs in 2011. So, let's look at this match being played a year ago... I would not be surprised to see M C at literally -1000. Now, has Welmu improved since then. Sure, let's say. Is M C as competitive on the top level as he was then? No. The level of competition and the talent pool in the scene has improved tremendously. But did M C fall off, is he slumping?
Absolutely not. Against almost any random foreigner, he will still be as dominant as ever. He did drop a series against Bischu at Assembly, and to VortiX in WCS Ro16 (granted, VortiX is one of the best foreigners). So of course, even in this best-of-5, Welmu is a live underdog. Even in HotS, long removed from the dark ages of PvP, it's still a fickle match-up, and M C has long since lost the "PvP-specialist" moniker. If Welmu comes in kicking and screaming, cheesing brutally every game, that's his way to victory.
He won't. StarCraft players are notoriously inept at risk management, not wanting (or knowing how) to alter their strategies and builds based on being the underdog. Grubby may be the biggest perpetrator of this, having publicly stated how he does not like to all-in, even with his more build-order centered race Protoss. Funny enough I almost like Grubby against Bomber at +384. But again, Grubby will not make the best out of that situation.
I have M C at -194 and -185. But still I like it at the current price and predict it will drop further before the game starts. And funny enough M C is the public bet also. I also have Taeja at +149.
MMA at -124 is tempting. Normally I would be crazy about getting a Korean at that price against a foreigner. Also I think MMA is severely underrated at the moment, having not been in the spotlight for a long time. Those who saw his series against Happy might have caught on to this though. But otherwise Scarlett might be a big public play here. The only problem is Scarlett is good, really good. I will look closely at line movement for this game nearing game time.
M C -231 4.6u to win 2u
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Originally Posted by UrQuan
