[EaglesPhan36]

Not sure how many of you wager on tennis outside of the majors, but I've always felt there is solid $$$ to be made by being smart on the other tournaments. What I'll be looking at is not necessarily backing big favorites, but finding the value with underdogs, etc. Take my posts for whatever you think it to be worth.

MON, JAN.29 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS (Surface:Carpet)
This is the only tournament that I have lines on currently at my book. Two big favorites with Soderling (-595) and Baghdatis (-400) playing in the first round. No real value there, but I do like this match:

5 Fernando Verdasco (-150) v. Marc Gicquel (+115)
Verdasco (Ranked - 35th): Lost to Andy Murray at the Australian in straight sets in the 2nd round. Verdasco should have lost in the 1st round of the Australian Open. He trailed Paul Henri Mathieu 2 sets to none when PHM retired due to injury.

Gicquel (Ranked - 50th): Lost in straights in the Australian to Andy Roddick in the 2nd round.

I don't see alot of difference between these two, so I think going with the underdog is a good value pick.

Go with Gicquel at +115.

[Tchocky]

Seemed like a lot of guys were taking Gicquel in this match. I heard the line moved to -120. Match just started.

[EaglesPhan36]

YEAR TO DATE: 1-0 (+1.15)

Gicquel gets the value picks off to a good start with a straight sets win.

TUES, JAN.30 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS (Surface: Carpet)
We'll stick with the same tournament as yesterday. I think two good value picks today, but I'll focus on the one I like better.

Thomas Johansson (-190) v. Janko Tipsarevic (+150)
I had Janko to upset Nalbandian in the 1st round of the Australian Open and he might have done it if not for the heat. He ran out of gas there and retired in the 5th set after beating up Nalbandian in the 1st two sets and losing the 3rd in a tie break. Johansson is actually ranked a few spots behind Janko in the rankings, so this match-up to me is again a toss-up where there is definite value with the underdog.

Go with Tipsarevic at +150.

**If you're looking for another option, I looked pretty hard at Bracciali +125 over Bennetau, but liked this one a little better.**

[Tchocky]

1. Lopez -151 over Koubek
2. Bracciali +143 over Benneteau
3. Vanek +272 over Karlovic - small play
4. Sugiyama -131 over Vesnina
5. Kirilenko +271 over Peer - small play
6. Santangelo +128 over Nakamura

[EaglesPhan36]

Year to Date: 1-1 (+0.15)

Well Janko el tanko'ed this morning in straight sets, so that one bit the dust. Bracciali was a nice pick that did pan out, that I passed on unfortunately!

Going to add one more for today because it intrigues me and money seems to be going in on her opponent.

Samantha Stosur (+195) v. Vera Zvonareva (-245)
1-1 in the two career meetings between the two, but Stosur just beat her in straight sets earlier this month. That may have been helped by her playing on her home turf in Australia, but I think the fact that she won is definitely worth taking a one unit bet on Stosur at this price.


Take Stosur at +195

[EaglesPhan36]

Year to Date: 2-1 (+2.10)

Samantha Stosur helped off-set a rough start to Tuesday with a three set win at +195. There might not be a value pick that good for a while. Anywho. Here's my thoughts for Wednesday. Not alot of great match-ups, but I'll go back to the men's side for today's value pick.

WED, JAN.30 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Stefan Koubek +120 v. Feliciano Lopez
I think this is an excellent spot to get a small value play on Koubek. It's another match where it's basically a toss-up and Koubek is actually the higher ranked player by the ATP. Neither did much at the Australian with Lopez exiting in the 2nd round and Koubek in the 1st. Koubek had however played well at the Chennai Open in early January, making the final before losing to Xavier Malisse who had beaten Rafael Nadal in the same tournament. Just call this one a hunch.

Koubek +120

Tchocky - nice call on Santangelo, I decided to get in on that at the last second!

[Tchocky]

Thanks...What about Kirilenko +271 over Peer? I think that was a better pick.

[Tchocky]

My Picks for today (1-31) are:

1. Baghdatis -275 over Dancevic
2. Horna -270 over Mello
3. Roitman -114 over Zabaleta
4. Kim -233 over Levine
5. Pavel +138 over Mayer
6. Schuettler +115 over Falla
7. Vinci -116 over Bremond

I think Kim, Baghdatis & Horna are worth the chalk. All lines from 5 Dimes. Good luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks...What about Kirilenko +271 over Peer? I think that was a better pick.

Yeah I didn't see the final until this morning. Great pick!

I took Arnaud Clement at -335 this morning. He's an easy straight sets winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Year to Date: 3-1 (+3.30)

A good win by Koubek yesterday to push us to another win with the value picks. I had originally planned to take today off, until I looked a little closer. Going to stay with the tournament that's been good to me so far for the next pick.

THURS, FEB.1 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Michael Llodra +160 v. Ivo Karlovic
Good spot for a value pick here with Llodra. He upset the 7th seed in the tournament in the first round. And while he's a relative unknown, he is ranked about 15 spots higher than Karlovic in the latest ATP rankings and that makes this a match where the odds don't reflect how even this match probably will be. That's why I say go with the u-dog again.

Llodra at +160 - Edited, +160 was the final price not +165

[Tchocky]

Nice call on Stosur...I didn't see that coming.

[EaglesPhan36]

Year to Date:4-1 (+4.90)

Another profitable day on Thursday with Llodra coming through with a straight sets win. We're to the point in most of these tournaments now where they're in the quarters or semis, so there's not a ton of value. But I do see one today with some value and one more time it's in the tournament we've been playing all week with good success.

PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Arnaud Clement +110 v. Marcos Baghdatis
Both have played well in this tournament in getting to the quarterfinals. The value pick though has to be Clement. He beat Baghdatis last October in their only career meeting and Baghdatis is one of those guys who has all the talent in the world, but seems to fall short at times. We saw that at the Australian against Monfils. With that being said, I'll take a small play on Clement in this one.

Take Clement at +110

[BuddyBear]

Tennis is really a sport I'd love to get to know better....i may have some questions for you in the future EaglesPhan...good luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

It's really a nice little money maker that I don't think enough people take advantage of. There are alot of early round matches where you can get odds at -300 or so for close to sure things and help pad your bankroll fairly easily. The value picks at even odds or better are just good to take in small doses when they look good.

Didn't pan out with Clement losing in 3 sets to Baghdatis.

[EaglesPhan36]

Year to Date: 4-2 (+3.90)

Slim loss on our value pick yesterday with Clement taking Baghdatis to a 3rd set tie break before dropping the match. Today, I'm going to offer up two value picks. Play at your discretion. I'll give you the better of the two first.

FEB.3, TORAY PAN PACIFIC (Surface: Carpet)

Ana Ivanovic +135 v. Martina Hingis
A real interesting final here.

Let's look at Hingis first, the #2 seed.

Hingis has been somewhat overshadowed by Serena Williams' big win as far as the word "comeback" is concerned. Hingis played well in both the Mondial & Australian Open down under this month, making the finals in the Mondial (lost to Safina) and the semis in the Australian (lost to Cljisters).

In the current tourny, she hasn't dropped a set, but has only faced one decent player in Dementieva (WTA #8) in the last round.

Now on to Ivanovic, the 5 seed.

She's been one of those players where people have been waiting for her to break through for awhile. Before this tourny, she'd had a habit of losing to the first respectable player she met in a tourny. In her three previous tournys, she lost shy of the semifinals to the likes of Zvonareva, Vaidisova and Peer. All ranked in the Top 20 along with Ivanovic.

However, she has seemed to turn a bit of a corner in the current tournament, beating WTA #10 Jelena Jankovic who had been playing fabulous tennis in her own right. Then she won when Sharapova retired in the 2nd set of their semifinal yesterday. She had beat up Maria 6-1 in the 1st set, injury or not.

So I see this one as a battle between two hot players, but Ivanovic is the pick because I think her confidence might be a tad bit higher and at +135, the value is there.

Take Ivanovic at +135

FEB.3, DELRAY BEACH CHAMPIONSHIPS (Surface: Hard)

Vincent Spadea +220 v. Xavier Malisse
This might wind up being a real sucker bet on my part, but there is definite value here based on results from the last two days. Spadea who is ranked 63rd, beat the 9th player in the world and Australian Open semifinalist Tommy Haas in the quarters. Spadea is also playing very close to home and made the semis of this same tournament last year before LOSING to Haas. So he reversed that trend, so why not extend this year's play?

Malisse crushed his quarterfinal opponent, but the day prior had been beaten by world #99 Rainer Schuettler in 3 sets. Maybe that woke Malisse up for the remainder of the tourny. Also consider that Malisse has beaten Spadea all 5 times they've met and Malisse has had great success at this tournament, making the finals 4 times and winning once in -05.

All that said, I think you take a small play on Spadea with a chance at a great payout.

Take Spadea at +220

(Late line movement has hammered this down to +164)

[EaglesPhan36]

SUN, Feb.4 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Marcos Bagdhatis +120 v. Ivan Ljubicic
Just offering up an early Sunday play to perhaps add to your bankroll before you amp up for the Super Bowl. This match is set for 8:05am EST.

Here's the quick breakdown:

Baghdatis is 2-0 lifetime v. Ljubicic with both wins coming at the Australian Open in '06 & '05. Ljubicic will be playing for the 5th consecutive day while Baghdatis has had a few off days early in this tournament. Couple that with Ljubicic working extremely hard in a few matches that went to 3rd set tie breaks and I think Baghdatis is a nice value pick here.

Take Baghdatis +120

[EaglesPhan36]

Well after a bit of a stumble on Saturday, we end the week strong with the Baghdatis win on Sunday.

Week: 5-4 (+3.10)
Year: 5-4 (+3.10)

Upcoming Tournaments: Week of Feb.5
Women: Open Gaz de France & Pattaya Open (Hard)
Men: None

[EaglesPhan36]

A couple days passed with no good value picks, but today we go with one. Apparently the public is on this pretty big too now because this line was as high as +300 last night. Let's see if we can get back on a roll.

WED. FEB.7 -OPEN GAZ DE FRANCE (Surface: Hard)

Katarina Srebotnik +195 v. Svetlana Kuznetsova
Definitely only suggesting small play on this, but I think it's still got good value for the price. Srebotnik led Kuznetsova by a set during the Medibank International in January. Kuznetsova eventually retired, so Srebotnik should not have any fear going into this match. Srebotnik could also be sharper having played a fairly routine match to advance in this tournament yesterday while Kuznetsova hasn't played in over two weeks.

Take Srebotnik at +195

**Match is scheduled to start at 2:30pmEST**

[Tchocky]

I know a lot of money has been coming in on Srebotnik. These girls met last month at Sydney at Kuznetsova retired after losing the 1st set. Sveta has not been playing well for the past couple of months. I don't know what is wrong with her. I still think she will win but Srebotnik is not a bad pick. I agree there is some value there.

[Tchocky]

Tough loss for Srebotnik...losing a 3rd set tiebreak. My picks for today:

1. Mirza -138 over Santangelo
2. Sucha +125 over Bammer
3. Peng -245 over Obziler
4. Dulko +133 over Pratt

[EaglesPhan36]

YTD: 5-5 (+2.10)

As pointed out, a tough break with Srebotnik losing in the 3rd set. Two matches stand out to me to choose from for today. I don't think you could go wrong with taking a shot at either one. One unit on each for me.

FRI. FEB.9 - PATTAYA WOMEN'S OPEN (Surface: Hard)

Gisela Dulko (+125) vs. Nicole Pratt
To me, this is a simple matter of two players being close to evenly matched. Dulko is ranked 52nd and Pratt is 45th. There's not much that separates the two besides Dulko having youth on her side. I go with Dulko here as a good value pick.

Take Dulko +125

Mara Santangelo (+110) vs. Sania Mirza
Another match-up between closely ranked players. This time however, the higher ranked player in Santangelo is actually the underdog. That is a pick I jump on every time, although I expect a real battle in this one.

Take Santangelo +110

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough loss for Srebotnik...losing a 3rd set tiebreak. My picks for today:

1. Mirza -138 over Santangelo
2. Sucha +125 over Bammer
3. Peng -245 over Obziler
4. Dulko +133 over Pratt

Def on Dulko. I think Mirza-Santangelo is the flip of a coin, but I liked the + odds better on Santangelo. GL!

[EaglesPhan36]

DAVIS CUP

Don't forget there are a ton of Davis Cup matches starting Friday as well. Just a quick glance at picks to consider.

JAMES BLAKE +110 vs. TOMAS BERDYCH (Surface: Clay)
If the match wasn't in the Czech Republic on clay, I'm pretty sure Blake would be the fave. Even with that being said, Blake is 2-0 v. Berdych and the US is 4-1 vs. The Czechs in Davis Cup play. I like taking the risk here.

CHRIS GUCCIONE +325 vs. OLIVER ROCHUS (Surface: Clay)
These two met in a grueling 5 set match at the Australian Open with Rochus outlasting Guccione. However, in Davis Cup play - Rochus has struggled at 3-6 on Clay. Rochus will be on his home turf, but at this price, Guccione is worth a small play for sure.

[EaglesPhan36]

Week: 1-2 (-0.75)
Year: 6-6 (+2.35)

Bit of a slow week with the value picks, but that's what you get with some of these smaller tournaments. Hopefully find some value picks early this week to shake off the rust of last week.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kickin' myself for not taking Youzhny at +165 yesterday when I had a good feeling about it. Oh well, first "official" value pick of the week.

TUES, FEB.12 - OPEN 13 (Surface: Hard)

Fernando Verdasco (+130) vs. Fabrice Santoro
These two have met once with Verdasco winning in 4 sets at the US Open in 2006. Verdasco is also ranked about 30 spots higher than Santoro, so this is a good value spot.

Take Verdasco at +130

[EaglesPhan36]

Well the Verdasco bet was a wash since he retired from the match. I do really like this one for early on Friday.

FRI, FEB.16 - PROXIMUS DIAMOND GAMES (Surface:Hard)

Anna Chakvetadze +110 vs. Nadia Petrova
Chakvetadze is 3-0 lifetime vs. Petrova with all three wins having come since last August. Chakvetadze has won one tournament already this year and has lost deep in tournys to Sharapova and Maursemo. While Petrova is coming in off a win in France last week, I really think this is a good value pick.

Take Chakvetadze +110

[Tchocky]

Well the Verdasco bet was a wash since he retired from the match. I do really like this one for early on Friday.

FRI, FEB.16 - PROXIMUS DIAMOND GAMES (Surface:Hard)

Anna Chakvetadze +110 vs. Nadia Petrova
Chakvetadze is 3-0 lifetime vs. Petrova with all three wins having come since last August. Chakvetadze has won one tournament already this year and has lost deep in tournys to Sharapova and Maursemo. While Petrova is coming in off a win in France last week, I really think this is a good value pick.

Take Chakvetadze +110

I liked Petrova in this matchup. She looked good last week in Paris. I can't believe Nadia loses her 4th straight meeting to the Chaka Kid.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was surprised it was in straights. There's alot of other toss-up matches today that I can't really get a read on.

Baghdatis-Youzhny
Gasquet-Soderling

Both should be interesting.

[Tchocky]

I like Youznhy & Gasquet.

1. Youzhny -102 over Baghdatis
2. Gasquet -2 1/2 games over Soderling -138
3. Karlovic +120 over Fish
4. Safin -3 games over Becker -123
5. Lee +5 games vs. Murray +105
6. Ferrero -188 over Starace
7. Saretta +5 games vs. Almagro +100
8. Ivanovic +5 games vs. Clijsters -115
9. Likhovtseva +5 games vs. Golovin -105

All lines from 5 Dimes. Good luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

SAT. FEB.17 - SAP Open (Surface: Hard)

Andy Murray +135 vs. Andy Roddick
Late addition for today, but I like this spot for value. Murray won this tournament in San Jose last year and while Roddick won their last head-2-head meeting, Murray has beaten him twice. That includes last year in this tourny. Despite Roddick's hot play, take a small chance on Murray.

Take Murray at +135

[EaglesPhan36]

Week: 2-0 (+2.45)
Year to Date: 8-6 (+4.80)

Good week last week. Starting early with a women's pick today.

MON, FEB.19 - DUBAI DUTY FREE WOMEN'S OPEN (Surface: Hard)

Francesca Schiavone +135 vs. Patty Schynder
Schiavone is 2-1 lifetime vs. Schynder, including a win last September. Schynder is also one of those maddingly inconsistent players on tour. She had a nice run in the Aussie Open and since has lost in the 1st round in France and then to Golovin at the Proximus tournament last week. Schiavone has also had a little extra time off following a loss to Sharapova over two weeks ago in a 3 set match in the Toray Pan Pacific Open.

Take Schiavone at +135

[Zerlinco]

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

ABN-AMRO

Tomas Berdych -149

Dominik Hrbaty -150

[Tchocky]

ATP Memphis Indoors for Thursday:

1. Melzer -136 over Lu
2. Del Potro +133 over Fish