Initial thoughts for first round of finals series:
Souths/Melbourne
Storm have won past 9/10 encounters with the only rabbits win by 2 points (final score 16-14) at home in 2010. From last week's game against the roosters, south's younger player's lack of experience in intense match ups was exposed. Their defence on their left flank is very weak when they are up against quality opposition. Souths clearly have the better pack with the Burgess boys and i rate smith and luke fairly equally in regards to playing levels. South's pack has more go forward in Gurgess and Turgess whilst storm's pack focuses on running at angles and is more defensive. This game will come down to adam reynolds and greg inglis' performance. Sutton has not been dominant in the last couple of games as he is playing more like a lock forward now. Storm will once again rely on the big 3 to get them over the line and based on their form of late, storm are on absolute fire whereas south's youthful squad's lack of experience is being exposed. storm's backline (1-5) have more speed and strength then souths bar inglis. If inglis' injury comes to haunt him during the game, souths will basically have no chance.
My prediction: Storm win by 10
Sharks/Cowboys
Cowboys have won their last 6 games and have won both games against sharks this year. Cowboys are the 2nd or 3rd best team right now based on form (behind storm/roosters) and all their wins have been convincing, 13+ in 5/6 wins and the other they won by 12. Their squad will be full strength as Matt Scott indicated in the media he will be playing if he passes a fitness test pregame. Sharks are also looking very solid with a win against roosters a fortnight ago. However, sharks ARE NOT playing at their fortress at Remondis Stadium. They are playing at allianz stadium. Sharks player much better at home and even thought this is a "home" game for the sharks they are not playing at their chosen home stadium. Their win against the raiders inflated their form and raiders had already given up on their season since the storm thrashing. Their wins in last 5 games were against raiders, dragons and roosters. Roosters were in a form slump, dragons and raiders had already given up on season. Cowboys beat rabbits, panthers, titans, knights, sharks, and tigers some of whom were still playing to make the top 8. Sharks have a better overall 1-17 and their pack is very talented and dangerous. Cowboys can match the sharks pack if scott plays. Sharks backline is (2-5) is worse then cowboys, tate/linnet more dangerous than pomeroy/wright whilst gordon is a more involved fb than bowen. Considering bowen's recent form, he is not too far behind gordon. This game will come down to JT VS Carney. JT is on fire whilst carney has been absent the past 2 games (probably rested). You need momentum going into a finals game and with JT embodying that, he will have the better of Carney who is returning.
My Prediction: Cowboys 1-12. Cowboys have won both games this year by 13+ i think sharks will keep it tighter since its a finals match.