Originally Posted by
Coopertrooper
It also has a lot to do with form I think. The Collingwood backline in 2009-2010 was the best in the league, now it is leaking heavily (the media focus on it this week has been particularly strong). The saints were also very good defensively, almost doing enough to win the premiership in 2010, but has since fallen apart. The form of Fisher and co has been terrible, Goddard is gone, Gram too, and players like Gilbert have lost all confidence. The loss of Maxwell from the Collingwood defence has been huge, we've looked lost down back. It is something I've seen more being at the game than watching the replay on TV. He sets the defence up, and is our master of covering the hole.
On the flip-side, the saints attack has been poor in recent years, bar from a small patch of form for Riewoldt. Milne doesn't look the same, and their other little guys like Schneider were the key to St kilda's previous successes. Collingwood's attack is very strong in terms of the talls, with the Cloke/Lynch combo working very well in my view. But the midfield has stopped chipping in with goals, with less impact from Thomas and Swan on the scoreboard.
Which effect will be larger? I'd say the defensive issue will be, but enough to cover the line? I'd say no, but probably won't be putting anything on it myself. It is a tough one to judge.