[sando]

In response to a question on my thread I got a bit carried away so thought I would post it here if anyone wants to have a gander...

got a call on the NRL on thursday: manly v bulldogs? manly been playing really good but bulldogs cant suck for this long right? whats your suggestion? anymore calls for friday night?

No Thursday night match this week mate, two Friday night matches instead - 'Doggies v Sea Eagles and the Titans v Bronco's.

IMO you've picked one of the toughest matches of the round, its a 'Doggies home game but obviously doesn't mean much with both teams being Sydney clubs, just that there will be a shitload of Lebbos at ANZ haha. Anyway Inu will be out because of his dog tackle on Inglis (excuse the pun), massive blow for the dogs, however Barba will no doubt be a hell of a lot better with a game under his belt. No Kasiano still for the dogs however that is cancelled out by the continued absence of Glen Stewart for Manly.

On paper and form you can't go past Manly, but I get the feeling that the dogs aren't far off a big performance and it's these sort of "blue collar" v "white collar" games that they usually get up for. lose this game and they are 1-4 and the 'Doggies are a far better team than that. Once they get their shit together I expect them to make another serious run at the GF this year.

So the 50/50 odds ($1.90/$1.90) reflect the contest accurately and I'm going to have to go with avoid on this one...

For me a far more interesting game is the QLD battle. Look for the under-rated Titans to do some damage to the over-rated Broncos who are filled with rookies and over the hill stars (Thaiday, Prince), although do still posses some strike weapons in Hodges (hamstring injury?), Parker, and the impressive young ranga Jack Reed. Look for the gun Titan forwards (Taylor, Bird, Myles) to dominate the Bronco forwards with quick play the balls and hard straight runs, despite the efforts of Parker, Hannant and Thaiday and how ironic that no team will know better the defensive deficiencies of Scotty prince and you can guarantee the Titans will be sending big boppers at him all night (Idris, maybe Taylor). Also for those that haven't caught on yet, remember this name - Aidan Sezer, the Titans's 5/8. The kid has talent and combined with a dangerous Titans backline (Zillman, Idris, Gordon) and a metre eating forward pack, he is set up for a great season this year. Not making any plays until final teams are announced but a definate lean on the Titans at this point.

Other leans...

NQLD Cowboys -10.5 (v. Penrith) and the Over (prob be set around 40-42)?
*Expecting the Cowboys to bounce back hard from a dismal few weeks and take out all of their wrath on the Panthers this week. Their is simply too much talent on this list and a massive/skillful forward pack. Have no doubt the Cowboys will rack up 30+ points on the Panthers this week. Will probably be a very large play.

St. George +3.5 (v. Newcastle)
*Dragons looked very sharp last week and expect them to back up with another solid effort at home.

Sydney -6 (v. Canberra)
*Expecting the Roosters to simply get better and better every week and with no Ferguson (massive massive out), Duigan gone, still no Campese, the Raiders are seriously lacking in game breakers and I expect my beloved green machine to get completely rolled in front of the tortured faithful at Canberra stadium. Probably a very large play.

Over (38-42)? (Melbourne v Wests Tigers)
*Tigers leaking plenty of points. Melbourne racking up an average of 29 per game. Obvious play. Tigers can still score behind Benji's magic and the Storm do go through the occasional defensive lapse.

[abzflabz]

Hey sando do know where i can find the over under results of past nrl games? And ATS stats aswell. Theres plenty of sites for nba and nfl but cant find any for aussie sports.

[ExodusNZ]

Nice write up

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I am against you on two of those.

Really big situational lean to the Raiders.
I am expecting the Roosters to take it a bit easy after not conceding any points in their last 2 games.
Raiders are a better team at home.
My only concern is the number of outs they have and their continued lack of effort for periods of their games where they cop 3-4 tries, blowing any chance of an ATS cover.

I also like the Broncos in this spot.
They are struggling and really need to rack up a few wins to keep touch with the 8.
Not sure if Thaiday has been ruled out or not, but if so he will be a huge out.
Derby game, usually close encounters.
Titans coming off a few tough games too.

I am with you though on the Cowboys.
I expect them to give the Panthers a solid touching up.
Saturday night in Townsville is always a hard gig and they will be looking at putting in a big performance in front of their red-neck crowd.

Slight lean to the Bulldogs too.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Cowboys have been crunched into -12 now.
Based on my calculations, this is still a play up until 16 points.
My only concern is that in the last 6 games in Townsville, the Cowboys have not beaten the Panthers by 12 points.


Re Tigers/Storm....
The last 6 games between these teams have been 40 or under, with totals of 32, 16, 16, 40, 26, 22.
In Melbourne, the Tigers won the last meeting by 4 and lost the previous 2 games by 2 points.
The line opened at 12.5 and it is now up to 14.5.
If it hits 16, the Tigers are a play.
Storm coming off 2 massive games, not to mention road trip to Townsville before that.
I like the Under and Tigers with the start here.

Titans v Broncos - like the unders here, hopefully it is set around the 40 mark.
If the Broncos creep up to +6, I might take some of that too.