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Coopertrooper's 2013 AFL thread
First time I've done one of these on here, thought I'd try and keep a better record of my plays.
I use mostly my own views/analysis, so there is no model, so tail with caution. I'll usually try and give a reason for my plays, even if some are short.
I normally play 1 or 2 units, and I'll usually quote odds from sportsbet.com.au
Will post my first lot of plays for round 1 in the next few days.
Yeah good luck to you CT, lets slam the AFL
Cheers guys, can't wait to have it back this weekend, and hoping to have a good year. I'm aiming for a fairly conservative target of 15 units, but hopefully it'll be a good year and we'll all smash the books
Play #1: Adelaide 1-19, $4.10 X 1
Play #2: West Coast -4.5, $1.92 X 1
Play #3: Parlay:
Adelaide 1-19
West Coast -4.5
Total: $7.87 X 0.5
We will see the bombers fired up, but the crows are looking fairly solid going into round 1. They played out a close battle last year with the crows winning by 4 points, so the 1-19 margin is giving good value here.
West Coast are one of the best teams in the league, and also go into this match in a solid position. This may be a derby match, but West Coast are in for a big year, and will be looking to get off to a good start. I had this line at about 14.5 points, so 4.5 is a steal.
Hopefully we can kick this year off with a good start on weekend 1 of round 1.
Love Port ML, Dockers are tempting ML, I like Saints to cover. I would be scared betting on WC, Freo played well against them last year, they weren't far off from the Eagles regarding overall performance, with their new coach in Ross, it took a few weeks to get their gameplan together but when they did, they were impressive.
The way I see it, Port's a 50/50 match, so they are great value. The question is, is Hinkley stupid or isn't he? If he isn't, then Port will win this one easy.
Saint's ML, I can't see GC winning in any way shape or form.
Haven't really looked into next weekends games yet to be honest. Round 1 usually throws up some upsets, but I don't see one this weekend.
The dockers are a tough team to gauge. Big sandi probably won't have the same impact as he once did, and I still don't see them gelling under Ross Lyon just yet.
GL mate
RE: Dockers, don't back them - Eagles are going to roll them
How have you done previous seasons ?
Cheers bud!Originally Posted by therealdealau
It is my first year recording it on here. Last year I did my own with a lot of very different bet types, and was up about 40 units halfway through the year, but gave half of that back in the 2nd half of the year. This year I'm going to try be consistent, and see how it goes. It is still fairly experimental for me, so I wouldn't tail without checking how I go first - because that is what I'd do if someone else was starting up a new thread.
Thought the bombers would come out fired up, but certainly didn't expect the crows to fold like that. Early days, but that was not a good sign for the crows.
Hopefully the eagles will soften the blow tomorrow.
Shocking start to the season. Both Adelaide and West Coast had the better sides on paper (although West Coast eventually had a few players miss which didn't help), and both came out with good leads in the first quarter, and looked the better sides. But both dropped off dramatically in the secind half, and I can't say I can explain why either side did.
Just have to move on to next weekend and not be scared off by 2 very poor performances.
Round 1: 0-3 -2.5 units
The rest of round 1 kicks off tomorrow night with the blues taking on the tigers. I'll be looking at tomorrow's total when it comes out.
Play #4: Carlton -2.5, $1.92 X 2
Carlton have a tough run in their first 5 weeks, with games against Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Adelaide coming up after this match against the tigers. This is simply a must-win game for the blues, despite how long it may take for them to gel with the Malthouse gameplan. Carlton have the wood over the tigers in this now regular round 1 match-up, and both have fairly strong sides. Carlton are missing Waite and Scotland, while the tigers are without Foley or Knights (who is quite likely to miss). This game is so important to Carlton that I'm making it a 2 unit play.
Play #5: Port Adelaide -1.5, $2.10 X 1
Port Adelaide go into this match off a solid pre-season, and some promising signs last season, while Melbourne were not outstanding, but did have some good signs with Watts improving, and the young brigade of future stars coming to the club, headed by Toumpas and Viney. Melbourne's forwardline of Dawes and Clark have not had time to gel at all (they have barely even trained at the same time due to injury), and I see massive value with port here.
Play #6: Carlton/Richmond under 192.5, $1.87 X 2
Looking at last years round 1 results at the mcg reveal high totals, which at first sight makes this an auto over play. However, all 3 games last year were played in warm conditions, which created a trend of high scores. This, coupled with the fact that Richmond will need to go into tonight's game with a defensive focus, leads to a good opportunity with the under. I expect the total to be around 175-185, so I'm making this a 2 unit play.
Tigers ML.
Expecting Carlton to struggle without a decent forward. Heavy reliance of mids/smalls kicking the goals...
Ground is wet. Bett's will kick 6
First 3 AFL games gone OVER
Totals will be adjusted look for some unders coming up
Yikes, what a disaster of a start. 3 times the favourite has got out to a good 3 goal lead, and all 3 times they've been upset. Shocking signs for Carlton as they were hopeless, and despite storming home threw away chances late. The tigers were good, although weren't up for 4 quarters of football yet. Still, they get the 4 points.
The talls struggled (Riewoldt and Casboult did nothing), yet the total went well over, and should have gone over by a bit more. Both sides were very sloppy, and while both needed to focus on defence, both were very poor there. Could be a chance for some overs with those sides in the coming weeks.
I'll be interested to see the totals for the rest of the week. The 'G is typically a lower scorig ground because of it's size, and even in cool conditions this one went well over.
Hopefully this won't continue to be fade material, but I went hard at this game and got burnt. Hopefully the results will settle down a bit for the rest of the weekend.
same thing happened last year..lots of overs in the early rounds
Yeah, I looked at the 3 games at the 'G last year in round 1, and they were 206, 252 and 197, and it is one of the lower scoring grounds. Hard to tell if the trend will continue for as long as last year, but weather doesn't even seem to be a major factor in it (barring strong rain).
non factor, ground was dry!
Puda, when I looked (and placed the bets) both West Coast and Carlton were favourites.
I actually went along to the match, and thought Riewoldt struggled to make an impact watching live. He kicked 0 goals 4 behinds, and didn't play a major part in any major plays. Casboult at the other end was hopeless, so both main targets could have done a lot better I felt.
Fair enough, but before the ball was bounced the odds shifted to Tiges and Freo... Anyhow I disagree with your assessment with Riewoldt.... agree to disagree.
Pity no footy today.
Footy should be on today
Reiwoldt played at chf. Kicked one moments after the siren. Set up a couple as well
Tigers problem will be the back line. They need a dasher with skill to play down there. Eg deledio
Round 1 0-5 -6.5 units (1 play pending)
Play #7: Brisbane 20-39, $4.30 X 1
This game is as simple as the form going into the match; Brisbane have looked very good, while the dogs haven't. Don't expect the dogs to just roll over, but Brisbane are the better side, and the dogs are missing Boyd, and have a fitness cloud over Cooney. They'll cover the line, but not by a ridiculous amount, so some good value here. This game will hopefully be the first to go to script!
Play #8: Stk to lead at all changes (Stk/Stk/Stk/Stk), $2.05 X1
The saints had a shocking year last year, so if you think they'll improve (like myself) they represent good value. Should dust off the suns without too much trouble, expecting a fairly solid 4-quarter effort here.
Didn't Their best player in Goddard leave?
Goddard left, and he was probably one of their best, although his form had dropped sharply in the past 24 months. Shouldn't make a huge difference in this game, the gold coast still have a lot of work to do to be a middle-of-the-table team.
Too many loose cannons in the Saints team.
They have never recovered from the drawn GF that they should have won v Collingwood.
It has been downhill ever since.
The whole Dal Santo, Reiwoldt saga, as well as the Ricky Nixon bullshit really affected them.
Suns are no mugs, and with Ablett in the team, anything is possible - The Khunt also has another AFL season under his belt.
Saints will probably win, but I can see the Suns being ahead at either QT or HT.
Lol @ Lions.... piss poor.
What the hell is going on? The books must be killing it this round, even for an early round there have been a lot of underdogs getting up. The lions didn't just lose, they got belted into submission. By the bulldogs. Wow, just wow.
Can't believe how ugly this is getting in just round 1.
Play #8: Gold Coast/St Kilda Under 188.5, $1.88 X2
Despite the run of overs so far, I like the look of the under here. The saints aren't the sort of side to run away with big wins, while the suns will be looking for a good year - and should be pretty good defensively, as they look to restrict sides to beatable totals. this should be a fairly defensive game, and have it pegged at about 175 points. Playing this for 2 units.
Hopefully will be able to open the account, or will end up a ridiculous way down for this week (not that I'll be alone in that camp).
Another game, another big upset. This is unprecedented, what an upside-down start to the year.
The suns ran all over the saints in the last quarter, and got the jump early too. The saints, lions and crows were all pathetic, 9 times out of 10 all 3 sides would win, and not one of them even looked like winning.
First win of the year with the under, and comfortably, but still another losing day. Hard to know if I'm way off the mark with a few of these or not, because the amount of upsets have just been crazy. I'd like to know more about how my capping is going, but it is hard to take much out of this weekend at all to be honest.
Round 1: 1-7 -6.74 units (1 pending)
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