[benrama]

Already some good threads here, but may as well jump in the game and keep a track of plays here, had a good start to season but will start with a 0-0 record.

Only going to make 2-3 plays per weekend, but plenty of 2X/3X as the season gets into Round 4 and beyond.

I also make some big ML juice plays on AFL each year in the right spots (in NRL it's suicide) - high risk but has ended up highly +EV so far, so if it ain't broke ...

One play for today:

1X Cowboys @ $1.87 (Pinnacle)

And one play for tomorrow:

1X Manly -2.5 @ $1.91 (Pinnacle)

[benrama]

Another play I endorse is Warriors +3.5, the top home ground advantages in the NRL are for Manly, Warriors, Storm, Broncos, NQ, Saints, Knights ... Looking to back all these teams with +points or a short handicap.

[snufflyjoe]

I went with Warriors ML and the over

[kingsr]

Good luck brothers

[hedgejob]

Dig that Warriors play.

[s2230011]

Great ! Should have this done long ago. Looking forward to your thoughts

[benrama]

Cowgirls were well and truly shown up by the Storm, the fact they can maintain that quality week after week and year after year is testament to Bellamy. Oh yea, and having 3 of the best in the game helps too

Sticking to just Manly today, Knights are my team but have to bet with the head. Beating a woeful Tigers means nothing, but it's kept the line short. Brookvale is a fortress for Manly and I think they will expose some weaknesses for the Knights out wide.

Manly won the last matchup late last season by over 20 and I see value in a 13+ action play as well.

[benrama]

Great ! Should have this done long ago. Looking forward to your thoughts

Thanks mate! Hop aboard, having a thread gives you more discipline too I've found - except when it doesn't

[benrama]

Manly cashes easy and so does the 13+ action wager (not counted). If this had been a round 4 on clash it would have been a max 5X bet, but only 1X in the early rounds for me.

Current record: 1-1, -0.1 units

Eyeing off a play on Souths tomorrow, always look to back the home team in MNF.

[benrama]

Locked in one play so far.

Titans +4 @ $1.91 (Centrebet)

Titans really should have won the game against the Sharks (IMO), not easy to do at Shark park. Thumping Canberra doesn't mean much, of course, but I really like their chances to pull off the upset here. Taylor gives them one of the top 5 forward packs, and although inexperienced at the halves I saw enough in the first two games to think they will prove a real surprise packet this year. Nearly a day and a quarter extra rest helps too.

Looking at the under in the game tomorrow night, and also a play on the Bulldogs ... also like Brisbane +5.5 and like Penrith too getting two tries at home (pretty much an auto value play, I remember looking at the stats on this and it hits at 55%+).

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice work Benrama

[s2230011]

Good Luck mate, I agree with the Broncos assessment .. I think the Roosters have been hugely overrated to far.

I am going 3 Units on the Under tonight and 1 on the 40/20 being kicked during the game. I was eyeing it out yesterday @ $4, then heard of the winds today so I thought with Cooper and Smith in the game and the faster rucks it would have a real shot, but the price was adjusted to $3.25. Oh well still going for it.

Good Luck benrama, always interested in your thoughts.

[benrama]

Thanks guys. Got the line I wanted...

1.5X Storm/Bulldogs under 36.5 @ $1.90

I'm in Melbourne at the moment and the wind is fierce. Rain may clear up but I expect a lot of completions and kicking tonight. If a few bombs go in this may go over, but I think we have two of the top 6 defenses here and that's always a look to play the under.

BOL guys.

[s2230011]

Good luck mate. I agree with your play.

I think that Cronk kick falling CMs short of a 40-20 was my best chance gone

[ExodusNZ]

Good luck mate. I agree with your play.

I think that Cronk kick falling CMs short of a 40-20 was my best chance gone

Nah im sure he'll be trying again

[benrama]

S22 - wind definitely didn't help with kicking but that 40/20 still had some close shaves. When Melbourne/Cronulla/parramatta play I'll be interested to see what the line is set at.

As for the game, had under written all over it but no under is ever safe. Storm showed some tired defending at the end - that was always a risk. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but a 1H under might have been more +EV.

Interestingly the line moved quite strongly late towards the over at Pinny - that was a $ earner following the Pinny steam last year - one to keep an eye on.

Lean to the over tonight but probably will stay away, still don't have a gauge on tigers this year.

3 solid plays at least left for the weekend, back at it later!

[s2230011]

Yeah I looked at stats from the last few years and Carney, Cronk, Sandow and surprisingly Mullen came up a bit.

TAB opens all games at $4, so there is value there. I am going to defeintly play anytime 2 of the above are playing each other.

Cronulla has kicked 2 this year already and Warriors one so that game might be worth a punt. It opened at $4 not sure if it will shorten close to game time again like last night.

Yesterday we looked comfortable once Smith missed that conversion in the first half, but the Storm showed some terrible defence in the end. That Inu try was the softest I have seen scored against Melborune in a long time.

[Lookingtostart]

What's your thoughts on Crows vs Essendon? The ML seems about right.

[benrama]

Sorry no time for posting... For what it is worth I was leaning over in the league and Crows in the AFL, so even night there.

I love the West Coast Eagles tomorrow and Titans and will likely lock in Broncos as well (but feels like a fishy line ...), in other words a big day ahead!

[benrama]

Locking these in now, all odds in this thread now Pinny unless stated otherwise:

1.5X Titans @$1.92
1X West Coast Eagles @ $2.04
1X Roosters -6 @ $1.98


West coast are without Nit Nat but Sandilands out negates that and gives WCE the advantage in the ruck with Cox. I expect a close derby but with Kennedy back Eagles just look that bit more dangerous.

Back flip on the Roosters game, sometimes you've got to look into why lines makers are telling you something. You don't think every punter this week looked at Broncos getting a try handicap and thought this was their best bet?

I've done my hammy many a time and even if Hodges plays I know he won't be 100% and is a good chance to injure it again. McGuire out weakens the defense for the Broncos, and I think these factors mean we might see a lot of points in this game with Jennings and Williams the perfect chance to show their attacking skills. Lean to the over but taking the "bookies side" here.

BOL all.

[Lookingtostart]

Tailing, I think this will be my first or second time I've ever bet rugby.

[benrama]

Eagles disappoint in the 2nd half but will take a 2-1 day.

Two plays I like for today:

1X Sharks/Warriors under 39.5 @ $1.96
1X Panthers +12 @ $1.91


Pretty much any team getting a 2 try head start at home is an auto play for me in the NRL.

Sharks under just depends on Warriors defense ... 7 tries or more at shark park is always a big ask.

BOL today whatever you play!

[benrama]

Tailing, I think this will be my first or second time I've ever bet rugby.

Well hopefully made up for the Eagles 2nd half no show! Freo could be a juicy team against top opposition this year ...

[benrama]

Recap of NRL Round 3

L 1.5X Storm/Bulldogs under 36.5 @ $1.90
W 1.5X Titans @$1.92
L 1X West Coast Eagles @ $2.04
W 1X Roosters -6 @ $1.98
W 1X Sharks/Warriors under 39.5 @ $1.96
Push 1X Panthers +12 @ $1.91

3-2-1 for +0.8 units

Overall record: 4-3-1 for +0.7 units
NRL: 4-2-1 for +1.7 units
AFL: 0-1 for -1 units

Storm game had 4 tries in the last 17 minutes to lose, Souths scored twice in the last 4 minutes to create the push in the Panthers game, but these things even out in the end and I ended up positive so - I'll take it.

From now on I'm going to split out NRL and AFL results and I won't be fkin around with the decimal point units. Games will be played to win a whole number of units, and I'm going to just assume I lose -1.1 units (or multiples thereof) or win 1 units. Keep the maths simple.

Looking at my first 2X of the year on the MNF game, and first full round of AFL and NRL next week - bring it on!

[benrama]

Everyone everywhere seems to be on the over for tonight, I'm not sold though, the two games between these teams ended up with 36 and 44 points last year. I think odds makers have this one about right.

The value for me lies in NQ which still has by far the more talented team, has a great MNF record (3-0 last season, 2 away) and won against the Knights convincingly both home and away in 2012 (with pretty similar team line ups to tonight).

Thurston is a huge match up problem for Newcastle, and I can't see them scoring less than 24 tonight, and they have an under rated defense that I expect can hold the Knights to less than 4 tries. First 2X for the season for me:

2X North Queensland -2.5

[s2230011]

Isn't Mullen out from tonights game too ??

Good luck mate ...

[Bazz27]

well thats a plus for newcastle, have u seen him kill ever 5th play lately esp those in goal grubbers always going dead he's got zero touch for the ball he needs an arvo with a.reynolds from souths. cows 1-12

[benrama]

Mullen will start I think from what I've read but he'll be less than 100% - agree with Baz that this is probably a plus for NQ! Gagai out is huge IMO, one of their top 3 players at the moment. No Mason will hurt them too up front.

[benrama]

Drop ball, give away a penalty, drop ball, give away a penalty ... Cowboys giving the game away.

Need a big turn around in the 2nd half.

[MrXYZ]

Forgettable 1st half. An early try & they're right back in it. Good luck.

[benrama]

Indeed. Every now and then Cowboys like to lay a giant fkin egg. And on cue another drop ball on the line.

Unlucky for the over not for knights to not go in for at least one more try.

Hopefully we can both still cash this game.

[benrama]

You're fkin kidding me, I'm turning this off, this is embarrassing.

Hope your over hits boys.

[benrama]

Overall record: 4-4-1 for -1.5 units
NRL: 4-3-1 for -0.5 units
AFL: 0-1 for -1 units

As usual a slow start to the season, cowgirls putting in one of the worst performances of any professional, talent filled NRL team I have seen, second only to their performance last year in round 1 to the Titans.

Manly are going to win tonight, and I'll be putting them in a number of ML parlays. Linesmakers have both the side and total line pretty much spot on however. Pass on the Thursday night game, but lean towards Manly -7 ...

In the AFL, Carlton have the wood over Richmond and are going for 10 straight wins against them. Here's a great breakdown of the game that has led me to back Carlton not just on the psychological edge, but also on the numbers: http://www.footytragic.com/blog/2013...hmond-preview/

1X Carlton @ $1.97

BOL guys

[benrama]

Been off the grid for last week or so, enjoying Easter time off.

There's some great games this weekend and I like a play on all three of the games tonight. Per my previous comments I'm not fcking with putting exact decimal odds any more - don't have the time. All plays will be at lines readily available at posting and I will assume 1.91 odds for record keeping - even though most should be able to get better - and that I am playing to win the units stated.


1X Bulldogs ML
1.5X Broncos +5.5
1X Saints +19.5


Barba and Pritchard back and on their second game is huge. Manly can be inconsistent away from home, and this is the type of heated game the doggies get up for. They will play desperate to avoid going to 1-4.

QLD derby should ensure 100% effort. I think Broncos are being under valued here. Their losses have come to the elite teams and by less than 8 points. Hodges back is huge, expect this one to go the wire. Hedge on Titans 1-12 if you feel like managing risk.

Don't have a good read on Saints of 2013 yet, but you can bet they will have got the serve after the Suns loss - and I always look to back a good team after a poor display. Would have been an auto play if at Etihad but given their key personnel returning and motivation not to start 0-2 and rebound for last week - have to take the 3 goals here.

BOL all!

[benrama]

Favourite play of the week is Saints +3, Win stadium is a fortress and Knights are still pretenders this year I'm afraid, they are over valued due to 3 home wins at HS, two of which came against sides that decided to play like school girls.

Will be at least a 2X play.