[Domestic]

Favourite play of the week is Saints +3, Win stadium is a fortress and Knights are still pretenders this year I'm afraid, they are over valued due to 3 home wins at HS, two of which came against sides that decided to play like school girls.

Will be at least a 2X play.

I'm with you on this, the +points is a nice little bonus I was not expecting. GL.

[benrama]

I'm with you on this, the +points is a nice little bonus I was not expecting. GL.

Yea mate looking forward to this one! I'll be on Saints ML too, they are a different animal at Win.

[benrama]

2-1 night hitting the larger play on the broncos - really wish I'd gone bigger on that play now, a rare "buy low" scenario.

But got lucky on the Saints really so I can complain.

Will update record tomorrow ... Shitty games all around in the footy codes for Saturday, looking at Eels after embarrassment of last week.

[benrama]

1X Eels +5.5
1.5X Cowboys/Panthers over 44.5
1.5X Lions +5.5


In short - Eels will have got a serve from Stuart, and expect 100% effort in what could be a season defining game. Without Carney Sharks won't be able to test the Eels as effectively in the air, and they remain very one dimensional in attack. I could regret backing the Eels here but I think they have value in this spot.

Look at the Cowboys/Panthers history ad their games regularly hit 45+ points. Both sides have defensive issues right now and I expect Cowboys to run riot here. Lean to the -12 but worried about a back door.

WTF happened with the Lions last week?! Put that game out of the memories, they are a hard side to beat at the G. Dangerfield won't have two shockers in a row and I expect an overall team bounce back. These games are historically close so I'll take any + points here.


BOL all!

[Lookingtostart]

1X Eels +5.5
1.5X Cowboys/Panthers over 44.5
1.5X Lions +5.5

WTF happened with the Lions last week?! Put that game out of the memories, they are a hard side to beat at the G. Dangerfield won't have two shockers in a row and I expect an overall team bounce back. These games are historically close so I'll take any + points here.


BOL all!

Agree. Sometime you can sum up games as flip 'o the coin, good + $ or points are the go of course.

[benrama]

Late strong lean to Port -35.5 onight but not making it an official play.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

If Panthers can score a few points too, then the over should hit easy

[benrama]

Panthers get blanked and Cowboys should have put on 40. Brisbane just couldn't quite execute at the end. That's the way it goes - onto today and my play of the weekend and first 3X of the year.

3X St George +3

I don't think we will need the points here but always nice to have a double chance to win if this gets close late. Dragons will stifle Newcastle, and I expect some success with the high ball. Mostly though Dragons are a different team at Win and Knights play poorly on the road.

Likely have some AFL plays too just doing some more research.

BOL all.

[benrama]

Adding 3 plays today in the AFL:


1.5X Geelong/North Melbourne over 198.5
1X WCE/Hawthorn under 188.5
1X WCE ML

[Lookingtostart]

Love the WC ML, it will be a tough game but Freo are a good team and were no indication of where WC's at.

What are your thoughts on Cats/Roos? Cats with a 6 day break and Roos with 7, Roos should cover the 1st quarter, though cats shoudl run over them later in the game.

[benrama]

Agree - with Lecras out and Hodge in for the Hawks this will be a tough game but PS is a fortress for WCE and Freo. I think Hawthorn are susceptible to any height around the ruck and forward line, so I like the Eagles chances.

Cats and North is a hard game to read, I see this as a potential let down for Cats and a statement game for North. We had the same situation last year and North ran out by 17 points. Definite lean to north and like them as a half time bet too (not so keen on 1Q bets as a general rule).

BOL

[benrama]

I'm liking the line movement on the Cats/North total, adding one more unit:

1X Cats/North over 199.5

[benrama]

Overall record: 9-10-1 for -1.2 units
NRL: 7-5-1 for +2.3 units
AFL: 2-5 for -3.5 units


Week Recap:
Wins: 5, +8 units
1.5X Broncos +5.5
1X Saints +19.5
1X Eels +5.5
3X St George +3
1.5X Geelong/North Melbourne over 198.5


Losses: 6, -7.7 units
1X Carlton @ $1.97
1X Bulldogs ML
1.5X Lions +5.5
1.5X Cowboys/Panthers over 44.5
1X WCE/Hawthorn under 188.5
1X WCE ML


Total: 5-6, 0.3 units


Too many plays this weekend, in particular disappointed in the Eagles ML play, was probably forcing it there. Happy with the other plays, no major mis-reads. Carlton could have won late, Lions could have won late, Cowboys/Panthers in game total was well over 50 after NQ started off hot - and then it just died in the arse.


Looking to be more selective this coming weekend and starting to really get the bankroll pumping.


No play on MNF for me.

[benrama]

Incredible steam to the over at Pinny, makes for an auto play.

1X tigers/storm over 42.5

[benrama]

Congrats under backers - was the right call - even though I'm still convinced that following Pinny steam on totals is +EV long term.

Tigers had a very deliberate strategy to slow the game down, create stoppages and prevent any flow to the game, combined with dogged defense. Nearly pulled off the upset, but it's so bloody hard to beat the Storm over 80 minutes.

Souths v Storm game on Sat should be one of the must see games of the season so far.

Until Friday, over and out.

[MrXYZ]

Unlucky this time. I thought it was still alive after that penalty kick. A converted try in the last couple of minutes would've gotten it over the line. But you're right, Tigers executed a pretty solid game plan for most of the game.

[benrama]

Tonight I'm playing:

3X Fremantle -12.5
2X Broncos/Cowboys over 36.5
1X Roosters -3.5

No time for write ups, off for weekend drinks. BOL all!

[Lookingtostart]

GL, everyone's with Fremantle!

[benrama]

Tough night, I think Freo were simply out hungered after half time but kudos to peptide boys I guess. Looks like the books won big time to tonight.

Roosters won easily like I thought they might, didn't watch any of the QLD derby so can't comment there but obviously read was wrong. Need a good day tomorrow to get this round back on track.

Back at it tomorrow.

[benrama]

2x GWS +30.5

[benrama]

Ugly round so far, but liking the card today:

Plays today:

2X Tigers +4.5
2X Tigers/Dragons under 38.5

In most sporting codes teams rise to the occasion the first game a star player gets injured, and NRL is no different. Tigers showed some really quality defense last week, particularly in their own 20, and that won't change with Benji out. Tedesco looks like a real potential superstar and expect him to see more ball this week, Farah will still keep the playmaking tight, Woods had a huge game against the Storm, and will form a formidable up front presence with Blair. With this being a Tigers home game - albeit at the SCG - I will gladly take the points with the Tigers.

The under seems almost too square a play, but I'm rolling with it none-the-less.

In the AFL I have just one play.

2X Hawthorn -10.5

I think the Pies get a reality check this week. I've watched both teams play their first two rounds of footy, and I think Hawthorn just are too strong up front for the Pies, who will need a big game out of Benny Reid. I think both midfields basically cancel each other out, however the loss of Jolly will give the Pies a lot of problem winning the ball consistently out of the middle. Small play on Hawks 39+ as well.

BOL all today!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice hits benrama, particularly the Tigers.

[garygroundwork]

yep nice work mate

[benrama]

Thanks gentlemen, makes up for the shocking start to the weekend on Friday. Love playing spots like today - all about trying to find some value.

Next week I'll follow the Sharks/Bulldogs line closely - I get the sense we will get value on the dogs after Friday night and they were not near as bad as re score indicates - let's see.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Mate, I was at the game and they looked terrible.
There is more to their poor form than what is being reported.
Yes they are missing a few key players, but that is no excuse for their poor efforts the last 2 weeks.
There is no way the Storm would ever play like that, regardless of who was missing.
I'd keep fading them ATS until they show some heart and form.

Take a break this week and enjoy the test match.

[benrama]

Point taken mate. I'll be following closely what happens with the dogs in the week off - they have the talent there and I just think against a struggling Sharks side they have the perfect chance to prove their doubters wrong. It's all in their head at the moment. We shall see!

[benrama]

Great write up by Sando on the game tonight - unfortunately I think Geelong's advantage up front is the key here. Ruck dominance is over stated - it's as much about how your midfield can win the contested possessions and this is a wash for me.

I think Swans have only had one good quarter this year so far and I think they are going to struggle to match Geelong for four quarters here.

I had a lean to the swans 1H but they have also started slowly so far.

This game feels like Fremantle last Friday with Swans the "obvious" but sucker bet.

2X Geelong +7.5

[Lookingtostart]

I like the Swans first half, Geelong are a good last quarter team so you're giving yourself some pre-emptive insurance. I would be weary of betting against the Swans, I think they pace themselves but Cats can do anything. I'm staying away for now...

[benrama]

Sorry LTS limited time this weekend again, hope you played that 1H - turns out both bets would have hit.

I'm on Richmond but didn't post here so obviously won't count to the record.

Tonight's plays:

2X Essendon -12.5
2X Carlton +17.5

No time for write ups, also strong lean to GC.

BOL all!

[benrama]

Nice to start the weekend 3-0, well 3-1 for me as I played Richmond (I bought into the belief that this might be the year they stop being pretenders).

In the first game I expect a true crap shoot but I do see value on Melbourne in the 1H, after all they even kept it close against WCE last week before dying off.

With all the pressure I can see them giving 100% at the beginning - wouldn't be surprised to see a back door cover or win by GWS however.

1X Demons 1H -7.5

Laying off the Adelaide game don't have a good read on them yet, suspect they will cover but the weather makes this a no play for me.

In the last game of the round I'm liking the over again, North are over machines at Etihad, I think they get 120+ here and Brisbane can't keep kicking as poorly as they have been forever, expecting a 120-100 type game.

2X North/Brisbane over 205.5

[benrama]

Overall record: 16-16-1 for -0.3 units
NRL: 10-7-1
AFL: 6-9

Last two weeks recap:
Wins: 7, +13 units
1X Roosters -3.5
2X Tigers +4.5
2X Tigers/Dragons under 38.5
2X Hawthorn -10.5
2X Geelong +7.5
2X Essendon -12.5
2X Carlton +17.5

Losses: 6, -12.1 units
1X tigers/storm over 42.5
3X Fremantle -12.5
2X Broncos/Cowboys over 36.5
2x GWS +30.5
1X Demons 1H -7.5
2X North/Brisbane over 205.5


AFL still dragging a bit, but happy with most plays. Demons 1H was close - arguably unlucky - and North did their bit for the over but Brisbane was pathetic again offensively. Easy to say in hindsight the the North team total over was the right play here.


Still waiting for that break out week - full weekend of footy ahead, so no better time than now!

[benrama]

One play for tonight - I expect Storm to dominate:

3X Storm -14.5

BOL!

[benrama]

1X storm/warriors under 40.5

How are the warriors going to score tonight? Melbourne will need 36 for this to cover, value on the under.

[s2230011]

U like anything tonight mate?

[benrama]

Hey mate, missed the league game but Manly was my lean. I like Freo in the AFL, I think the line movement reflects the fact that Richmond will struggle here. Getting McPharlin back is huge, and I expect full effort after the home loss against Essendon.

Some of the value is lost but I still think the line is <3 goals only due to the Hawks loss last week.

2X Freo -16.5