[dRavidC]

Hey everyone!

Just letting you all that I'll be back for this year's NRL season.

Didn't have the greatest of seasons last year but hoping to be back and better at it this time round.

Just a reminder of my record from last year:

NRL 2012 Record: 52 - 55

+ 25.16 units

Link to last year's NRL thread

[garygroundwork]

good luck mate!

[That Guy]

good luck man!

[ExodusNZ]

+25 units is still awesome

[Tim Gerry Mander]

GL buddy

[dRavidC]

Thanks everyone!

@ExodusNZ: I know, but just a few really bone-headed/impulse plays that cost me a potentially bigger gain.

[dRavidC]

before I make any plays, gonna sit on the sidelines and watch the first 3 weeks of the season to see where every team is at.

[hawley]

GL on the season pal.

Good to see you still posting

[dRavidC]

and here goes my first play of the season

NRL Round 3

1* Storm vs Bulldogs UNDER 36.5

These two teams know each other inside out. Storm are just hot right now while the dogs are minus Barba but have grand final revenge of their minds. These two teams played each other 3 times last year and these were the totals: 18, 24, 18. Call me crazy but I see a lot of value on the under, even though the number looks really low. I see a grinding out style of footy tonight similar to what we saw in the scoreless 2nd half between the eels and the dogs last week - conservative play, kicking into touch etc., especially with rain and strong winds forecast for tonight in Melbourne.

[dRavidC]

and here goes my first play of the season

NRL Round 3

1* Storm vs Bulldogs UNDER 36.5 LOSS

These two teams know each other inside out. Storm are just hot right now while the dogs are minus Barba but have grand final revenge of their minds. These two teams played each other 3 times last year and these were the totals: 18, 24, 18. Call me crazy but I see a lot of value on the under, even though the number looks really low. I see a grinding out style of footy tonight similar to what we saw in the scoreless 2nd half between the eels and the dogs last week - conservative play, kicking into touch etc., especially with rain and strong winds forecast for tonight in Melbourne.

wow... 10 points in the 1st half 30 in the second to bust our 1 unit play. i knew i should of played the under 1st half. oh well not the greatest of starts but we'll keep at it.

NRL 2013 Record: 0 - 1

- 1.00 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 3

1* Tigers vs Eels OVER 40.5

I just can't see these two teams playing tight for the entire 80 minutes to keep this total UNDER. Sure the eels played a scoreless 2nd half against the dogs last week but what happened in that first half? try after try! Both teams have the attack to put up points and I just can't separate these two teams despite it being at tigers home turf. And not to mention the past 3 matches between these two sides have comfortably gone over the total. I like the OVER in this one.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 3

1* Tigers vs Eels OVER 40.5

I just can't see these two teams playing tight for the entire 80 minutes to keep this total UNDER. Sure the eels played a scoreless 2nd half against the dogs last week but what happened in that first half? try after try! Both teams have the attack to put up points and I just can't separate these two teams despite it being at tigers home turf. And not to mention the past 3 matches between these two sides have comfortably gone over the total. I like the OVER in this one.

NRL 2013 Record: 1 - 1

- 0.05 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 3

1* Raiders vs Dragons +4

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 3

1* Raiders vs Dragons +4

NRL 2013 Record: 1 - 2

- 1.05 units

[dRavidC]

terrible play on the dragons last night, hopefully we'll get it back tonight.

NRL Round 3

2* Knights vs Cowboys OVER 40.5

Past 5 h2h matches between these two sides have averaged 44.4 points. Last week the knights scored 0 and allowed 32, cowboys scored 10 and allowed 32. I'm expecting offence (above defence) to be the focus for both sides in the lead up to this match. Both teams love to play fast-paced footy and I think we'll see these two sides piling on the points tonight.

live in-game @ 2nd half

2* Knights vs Cowboys OVER 39.5

[dRavidC]

terrible play on the dragons last night, hopefully we'll get it back tonight.

NRL Round 3

2* Knights vs Cowboys OVER 40.5 LOSS

Past 5 h2h matches between these two sides have averaged 44.4 points. Last week the knights scored 0 and allowed 32, cowboys scored 10 and allowed 32. I'm expecting offence (above defence) to be the focus for both sides in the lead up to this match. Both teams love to play fast-paced footy and I think we'll see these two sides piling on the points tonight.

live in-game @ 2nd half

2* Knights vs Cowboys OVER 39.5 WON

cruel...

NRL 2013 Record: 2 - 3

- 1.23 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

2* Manly vs Wests UNDER 40.5

[davopnz]

was leaning towards the over, wests don't play defense but are good for the old magic try. manly should score at will. whats your reasoning?

[dRavidC]

was leaning towards the over, wests don't play defense but are good for the old magic try. manly should score at will. whats your reasoning?

sorry mate a bit late but here's go my response to that. it is raining over at gosford (where the game is being played at), and Manly are one of the best defensive teams in the comp. Tigers leaked some easy tries last week and I'm sure defence will be the emphasis for this week. But mainly I think the wet weather footy tactics will be in play tonight.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice call mate

Looking good at HT

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

2* Manly vs Wests UNDER 40.5 WON

back in the positives with an easy winner. this might be the weekend we prosper

NRL 2013 Record: 3 - 3

+0.59 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 5

2* Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5

The first 3 bulldogs games have averaged 37 points and the bulldogs have averaged just 17 points a game. The first rabbitohs games have averaged 47 points and the rabbitohs have averaged a whopping 29 points a game. The bulldogs regain the services of Barba for the first time this season, however I expect them to continue playing their grinding style of footy. The rabbitohs have been putting up a lot of points lately but if we look closely, they do know how to play a defensive, slow tempo kind of footy when they're playing teams with good defence (i.e. sharks). Heat will not be a factor tonight, in fact it is relatively cold and so we won't see non existent and fatigued defences like we did in the rabbitohs panthers game. I think this game reaches mid-high 30's at best. Either team could take this one, but I think Barba won't be able to be the game breaker he was last season in just his first game so I learn to the Rabbitohs in what should be a really close game.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 5

2* Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5 WON

The first 3 bulldogs games have averaged 37 points and the bulldogs have averaged just 17 points a game. The first rabbitohs games have averaged 47 points and the rabbitohs have averaged a whopping 29 points a game. The bulldogs regain the services of Barba for the first time this season, however I expect them to continue playing their grinding style of footy. The rabbitohs have been putting up a lot of points lately but if we look closely, they do know how to play a defensive, slow tempo kind of footy when they're playing teams with good defence (i.e. sharks). Heat will not be a factor tonight, in fact it is relatively cold and so we won't see non existent and fatigued defences like we did in the rabbitohs panthers game. I think this game reaches mid-high 30's at best. Either team could take this one, but I think Barba won't be able to be the game breaker he was last season in just his first game so I learn to the Rabbitohs in what should be a really close game.

another easy winner. no play in the storm broncos game but gun to my head, i'd go with the under.

NRL 2013 Record: 4 - 3

+2.41 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

2* Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5

The first 3 bulldogs games have averaged 37 points and the bulldogs have averaged just 17 points a game. The first rabbitohs games have averaged 47 points and the rabbitohs have averaged a whopping 29 points a game. The bulldogs regain the services of Barba for the first time this season, however I expect them to continue playing their grinding style of footy. The rabbitohs have been putting up a lot of points lately but if we look closely, they do know how to play a defensive, slow tempo kind of footy when they're playing teams with good defence (i.e. sharks). Heat will not be a factor tonight, in fact it is relatively cold and so we won't see non existent and fatigued defences like we did in the rabbitohs panthers game. I think this game reaches mid-high 30's at best. Either team could take this one, but I think Barba won't be able to be the game breaker he was last season in just his first game so I learn to the Rabbitohs in what should be a really close game.

Fixed round number.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 5

2* Sharks vs Dragons UNDER 35.5

Dragons can't score. Sharks play conservatively in attack and are one of the best defensive teams in the score. Under looks like the solid play here.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 5

2* Sharks vs Dragons UNDER 35.5 LOSS

Dragons can't score. Sharks play conservatively in attack and are one of the best defensive teams in the score. Under looks like the solid play here.

stupid play from myself...

NRL 2013 Record: 4 - 4

+0.41 units

[ExodusNZ]

stupid play from myself...

NRL 2013 Record: 4 - 4

+0.41 units

Not trying to rub salt in the wound - I follow alot of your plays.

Besides the losing bet, why do you consider it a stupid play ?

[dRavidC]

Not trying to rub salt in the wound - I follow alot of your plays.

Besides the losing bet, why do you consider it a stupid play ?

stupid as in with such a low total, the value wasn't there for a 1 unit play let alone a 2 unit one - my gut was to pass but i decided to play it last minute.

[Coopertrooper]

I can see why you'd think it was stupid after the fact, but a couple of those tries involved airborne bodies outside of the field of play, so it was a bit stiff when it missed by less than a try.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

1* Panthers vs Titans UNDER 43.5

[MrXYZ]

We're on the same side at last! Good luck today.

[dRavidC]

We're on the same side at last! Good luck today.

we should be on the same side more often

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

1* Panthers vs Titans UNDER 43.5

fortunate win there. panthers had so many opportunities to put up the points then what the 10 points they scored suggests.

NRL 2013 Record: 5 - 4

+1.32 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

1.5* Warriors +6 vs Cowboys

Warriors have lost 11 NRL games on the trot dating back from last year and yet I'm backing the warriors +6. Crazy play? Not at all. To me, this is the warriors season on the line. If they can't get away with the win here, then their season is as good as gone. Pressure is mounting on Elliot the coach as well as the players. On the other side of the ditch, you have a cowboys team that looked good in round 1 against the dogs and have ever since looked like absolute rubbish. They do have Bowen and Jt so they could just as easily turn it around this week. Plus they played one of worse games I've ever seen them play in quite some time last week against Newcastle so am expecting a lift here. However, warriors need this win A LOT MORE than the cowboys. If they can't find the motivation in this game, they never will, simple as that. Also the fact that the dragons won this week means the warriors are the only winless team in the comp at the moment. They have the players, they just need the confidence. I liked how they finished against the roosters 2 weeks back where they really could of won/drawn the game had they converted for goal better. Can't play the M/L on the warriors due to that massive losing streak, so gonna stick to a more safer handicap line. The way I see it, warriors will either win this straight out or lose by less than 6 points.

[dRavidC]

NRL Round 4

1.5* Warriors +6 vs Cowboys WON

Warriors have lost 11 NRL games on the trot dating back from last year and yet I'm backing the warriors +6. Crazy play? Not at all. To me, this is the warriors season on the line. If they can't get away with the win here, then their season is as good as gone. Pressure is mounting on Elliot the coach as well as the players. On the other side of the ditch, you have a cowboys team that looked good in round 1 against the dogs and have ever since looked like absolute rubbish. They do have Bowen and Jt so they could just as easily turn it around this week. Plus they played one of worse games I've ever seen them play in quite some time last week against Newcastle so am expecting a lift here. However, warriors need this win A LOT MORE than the cowboys. If they can't find the motivation in this game, they never will, simple as that. Also the fact that the dragons won this week means the warriors are the only winless team in the comp at the moment. They have the players, they just need the confidence. I liked how they finished against the roosters 2 weeks back where they really could of won/drawn the game had they converted for goal better. Can't play the M/L on the warriors due to that massive losing streak, so gonna stick to a more safer handicap line. The way I see it, warriors will either win this straight out or lose by less than 6 points.

Looked ominous early on being down 12 zip but that try at the end by taylor just before half time was the momentum the warriors needed to not only get us the cover but win outright. Not the prettiest of games but win's a win and I'm sure this will boost their confidence for the games to come. Cowboys, what you say? Not as bad as last week but still pathetic. Nonetheless, CASH IT!

NRL 2013 Record: 6 - 4

+2.69 units