[Tim Gerry Mander]

Hi guys and gals,

I have been working on a line (spread) betting system for the NRL (National Rugby League) for a few years now.

It is modelled on an NFL system I came across.

I used it for season 2010 and half of 2011.

Work commitments prevented me from pursuing it for the second half of season 2011 and all of season 2012.

I also wanted to use the model for AFL and Super 15, but again, work commitments did not allow this.

I am hoping that it will be up and running for season 2013 and add to the great work that Sando is doing with the NBA, Tennis and Union.

The draw for 2013 has just been released.
For the first time in history, the first 20 rounds will have a fixed schedule, so each team knows the day and time that they will be playing.
Following on from last year's Thursday Night Football on the opening round, there will be a Thursday game for the first four rounds, while a game has been moved to 6:30PM Sunday for most rounds.

I would like some input from fellow posters on how you think each team will perform next year, based on recruitment, retention and personnel losses.

I also read in Sando's thread that someone from Canberra had a history of spread lines for the last 10 years or so. I would be grateful for this information as I did not have the time to collect this info over the last 2 years.

Here is a link to the draw:

http://www.nrl.com/2013-telstra-prem...9/default.aspx

Cheers to all, let's hope we can break the bookies next year!

[sando]

Very keen to see your system in action mate, last season was the best IMO in years, so much talent running around in the NRL these days. The doggies will have a ridiculous pack next year after stealing T-Rex from Manly to add to Kasiano, Frank "the tank" and the Pommy ear biter. Also I think Canberra could be very dangerous next year if they can keep Campese and Duigan healthy and lastly I expect Adam Reynolds to challenge JT's position as the games best half. His defense is stellar for a half and his kicking game is without equal in my humble opinion. So much exciting young talent on the warriors list as well. Shaun Johnson, Konrad Hurrell, Kevin Locke...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

It will be a great season - think Dogs have it in the bag next year with the addition of T-Rex.
I liked them for 2013 after they picked up Hasler, but given their performances this season, they are even closer than I thought.
The Storm showed up their inexperience in the GF bit think that they'll all be better for the run in 2013.
Look out if they bag JT for 2014, they could win a few in a row.
The Warriors will struggle after losing Maloney, but it can't get much worse for them after last season - McClennan was absolutely disgraceful.
I expect improvement in the Eels and expect some covers from them early in the season as undervalued dogs.
The Raiders are an enigma - everyone jumped on the bandwagon before the finals but I was always sceptical of their defence - concede too many soft tries in their games.
I'm a little worried about Souths, they may regress a little after Russell Crowe's decision to sell his share in the club - plus opposition teams won't give them as much space.

So many key personnel changes too - Luke Lewis, Chris Heighington and Michael Gordon to the Sharks, Dave Taylor to the Titans, T-Rex to the Dogs, Scotty Prince to the Broncos, Beau Scott and Jeremy Smith to the Knights, Braith Anasta to the Tigers.

I like the Panthers' action in the market - bought some solid players.... I expect them to come good in the second half of the season.

Again, plenty will come down to injuries and rep commitments.

The best thing is more League on more days - the missus is going to crack the sh|ts even more!

[Duff85]

Haha love the name. Looking forward to seeing the system in action.

[Duff85]

Also Oddsportal has a history of spreads across a range of bookmakers for NRL but they aren't in the most user friendly format. (You'll see what I mean when you look them up)

[MrXYZ]

Hi TGM,

I've been running an NRL thread on SBR for 2 seasons & will be back for more. But won't start looking at it till early next year. My early thoughts: Parra finally make the top 8, and Bulldogs fail to make the Grand Final. I'm more situational than stat based and prefer to focus on totals.

Good luck, we need more guys capping League!

[gopolks]

It will be a great season - think Dogs have it in the bag next year with the addition of T-Rex.
I liked them for 2013 after they picked up Hasler, but given their performances this season, they are even closer than I thought.
The Storm showed up their inexperience in the GF bit think that they'll all be better for the run in 2013.
Look out if they bag JT for 2014, they could win a few in a row.
The Warriors will struggle after losing Maloney, but it can't get much worse for them after last season - McClennan was absolutely disgraceful.
I expect improvement in the Eels and expect some covers from them early in the season as undervalued dogs.
The Raiders are an enigma - everyone jumped on the bandwagon before the finals but I was always sceptical of their defence - concede too many soft tries in their games.
I'm a little worried about Souths, they may regress a little after Russell Crowe's decision to sell his share in the club - plus opposition teams won't give them as much space.

So many key personnel changes too - Luke Lewis, Chris Heighington and Michael Gordon to the Sharks, Dave Taylor to the Titans, T-Rex to the Dogs, Scotty Prince to the Broncos, Beau Scott and Jeremy Smith to the Knights, Braith Anasta to the Tigers.

I like the Panthers' action in the market - bought some solid players.... I expect them to come good in the second half of the season.

Again, plenty will come down to injuries and rep commitments.

The best thing is more League on more days - the missus is going to crack the sh|ts even more!

McClennan was a joke just season, the boys will do well this season, they are really getting worked over in training, to get them
fitter, they run out of stream in the last 20, I think Manu is too old though.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Hi TGM,

I've been running an NRL thread on SBR for 2 seasons & will be back for more. But won't start looking at it till early next year. My early thoughts: Parra finally make the top 8, and Bulldogs fail to make the Grand Final. I'm more situational than stat based and prefer to focus on totals.

Good luck, we need more guys capping League!

Ricky Stuart will get them competitive at least.
My mail is that they are making some big plays for 2014 - Robbie Farah is getting chased very hard.

I have heaps of work to do before the season starts - model is very labour intensive!

Duff85 - Thanks for the tip, will check it out.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Some interesting news today.

SBW is looking at taking a paycut so the Roosters can sign Quade Cooper. Hope this happens as they'll be conceding even more points next season.

Storm coach Bellamy has hinted he'll be resting players for the season opener against the Cowboys, given that their Round 2 GF rematch against the Bulldogs will be played on Thursday night. He is worried about the dehydration factor and 5 day recovery after playing in the tropics.

If the Cows are getting any sort of start, i will be looking at playing them at the spread. Keep this game pencilled.

[hawley]

TGM would be rude if you didn't post some late mail every now and then

[Tim Gerry Mander]

TGM would be rude if you didn't post some late mail every now and then

i'll do my best..... wish there were more hours in the day to devote to NRL!!

What were you posting under at sportal?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Massive news today with Bulldogs gun fullback and reigning Dally M Medallist Ben Barba being stood down indefinitely by his club to deal with some personal issues. Alcohol and gambling have been mentioned.

Still slogging through the spreadsheets and trying to finalise some power rankings for each team.

I'd like to get some other people's opinions on this year's squads so I can try and get balanced and objective ratings.

Feel free to drop a few lines, even if it is for a handful of teams.

At early glance, I think the Dragons are very close to wooden spoon material this year.

[hjrozay]

Good luck for the up coming season TGM.

From the early trial results and the early rounds last season I feel like we will get a lot of under results.

Teams won't be fluent with their combinations in the earlier rounds especially teams who have brought in new coaches.

Teams who I think will rely heavily on defense but will struggle most of the year are - St.George and Parramatta.

Watching the Charity Shield last Friday I felt even though Dragons scored some late points they will still be relying heavily on their D structure created by Wayne Bennett but may not have the cattle to work that former game plan.

Having Weyman back helps them but their attack leaves a lot to be desired. They lack ideas and their go to play the sweep move looks so out of date.

Parramatta - Simply Ricky Stuart. The guy was a fantastic HB in his days with Canberra but he cannot coach attractive football and the early signs is Parramatta will be scrappy old team which works but you also need to score points. Yeah they have Hayne and Sandow but they truly lack the cattle. They improved from their 41-4 loss to Wests to draw with Penrith 10-10 last week so the early signs are there that if they apply a good attitude early they can stick with teams and keep it low scoring and close.

Special mention for the Wests Tigers. I enjoy the Tigers play and their will to score from any position on the field but watching them on Saturday they didn't look like the team from 2010-11.

Michael Potter is a rookie NRL coach and has stated he wants to reel in their previous successful attacking mindset in.

I think moving Benji to 6 was a no brainer but I'm concerned about their attack and back-row. Losing Heigington and Gareth Ellis for Braith Anasta, Eddy Pethybourne and Bodene Thompson isn't convincing me of their credentials.

What makes me not write them off early is only because of Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah.

This new NRL " bling " era of billion dollar tv deals and larger salary caps has me excited for the new season ahead.

[hawley]

Liking the Cowboys in round one to beat your doggies TGM.

That cowboys squad is deep and solid across the paddock and into their reserves.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Liking the Cowboys in round one to beat your doggies TGM.

That cowboys squad is deep and solid across the paddock and into their reserves.

You think?

I reckon Dogs should be at least a 2.5 to 3.5 favourite in this game.
As a PK, I like the Bulldogs in this spot.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Here is my table forecast for the season:

1	Storm	44
2	Bulldogs	40
3	Cowboys	38
4	Broncos	36
5	Rabbitohs	34
6	Raiders	34
7	Roosters	30
8	Sea Eagles	30
9	Sharks	28
10	Tigers	26
11	Eels	24
12	Knights	22
13	Warriors	20
14	Panthers	18
15	Titans	16
16	Dragons	10

[Tim Gerry Mander]

As a general rule, I never touch favourites at the spread for the first 4 rounds.

Here are my plays for Round 1:

#1 - Raiders +1.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT

Raiders should be faves in this game, against a completely new Panthers team. It will take time for them to build combinations. It is always dangerous touching the Raiders as who knows which team will turn up? Let's see how this pans out.

#2 - Tigers +6 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Yeah the Knights have bought a few defensive backrowers, but the Tigers are no mugs either. I'm thinking this will be a tight slugfest, Bennett likes defensive gameplans and Potter will try to grind out some results in his first year as an NRL coach. In a tight game, 6 points is a massive start.

I might add more plays over the next day or so, but that's it for now.

Here are a few other leans for the action junkies:

Bulldogs +1.5 - Barba is not playing, but they have some solid depth at the club and the grand finalists catching points? Looks like a gift.

Roosters +4 - The last few games were tight and the Roosters will be looking for some revenge after Souths won the last game off the last play of the game from the kick-off.

Best of Luck to all - enjoy the ride!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The Warriors will struggle after losing Maloney, but it can't get much worse for them after last season - McClennan was absolutely disgraceful.

I expect improvement in the Eels and expect some covers from them early in the season as undervalued dogs.

The Raiders are an enigma - everyone jumped on the bandwagon before the finals but I was always sceptical of their defence - concede too many soft tries in their games.

I like the Panthers' action in the market - bought some solid players.... I expect them to come good in the second half of the season.

Should have taken more notice of this when doing my tips for round 1.

The Raiders once again show that they are the worst team to get an accurate read on.

Losing start to the season - let's see how MNF pans out.

Bet # 1 - Raiders +1.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 2 - Tigers +6 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - PENDING

Season Total: 0 - 1 [-1 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

OK, there were no plays for round 2, even though I was close to pulling the trigger on the Raiders at the spread, but the Dugan situation kept me away from it.

On to round 3, these are the two standouts for me at the moment:

Broncos +5.5
Bulldogs +10.5

Just leans at the moment, will do the numbers over the next day or so and confirm by Thursday.

Rotten start to say the least, but there is a long way to go.

YTD RECORD

Bet # 1 - Raiders +1.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 2 - Tigers +6 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Season Total: 0 - 2 [-2 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The Broncos have beaten the Roosters 7 out of the last 8 games played in Sydney.

Although improved from last year, the Roosters are still a work in progress and that points start is huge for mine.

I'll take any Hasler coached team catching that many points any day of the week.

I expect a tight contest again tomorrow night.

ROUND 3 PLAYS

Bet # 3 - Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

(TAB has Bulldogs +12.5 @ $1.80 for those who want to pay for the extra points)

Bet # 4 - Broncos +5.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT

Good luck to all.

[hjrozay]

Canterbury are missing some strike power in Frank Pritchard, Sam Kasiano, James Graham and of course Ben Barba.

It's abit of a concern. Parramatta last week didn't punish the Dogs with all the position in their 20m zone and if given same amount of ball Melbourne will punish Canterbury.

You're a brave man Tim Mander.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 3 PLAYS

Bet # 3 - Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 4 - Broncos +5.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - PENDING

Nice work by the Dogs to go within a whisker of stealing the game at the death - bookies would have cleaned up big time if they'd put it through the hands instead of kicking it.

Anyhow, play # 3 cashes for us, on to tonight's game.

Season Total: 1-2 [-1.08 UNITS]

[MrXYZ]

Good luck with the Broncos. They should score in this set. Gotta be be one of the worst games I've seen this year.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 3 PLAYS

Bet # 3 - Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 4 - Broncos +5.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSE

Season Total: 1-3 [-2.08 UNITS]

The Broncos had enough ball to win 2 games of football but couldn't get over the line against the Chooks.

Round 4 tips coming soon.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Eyeing 4 games at the moment:

#1 - Broncos +8 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
Storm are looking leg-weary and were nearly beaten last start - my only concern is the lack of points in the Broncos - Bit of a psych edge for the Broncos, playing at home on a Friday night and as 8 point dogs, you'd expect them to come out fired up and wanting to make a statement especially after last week's performance.
The Storm have beaten the Broncos at Suncorp in 6 of the last 7 games played there, but importantly have only covered this spread amount once - All games have been decided by 10 points or less.

#2 - Panthers +3.5 @ $1.91 - (Sportingbet)
Soild effort by the Panthers to keep it close against the Rabbitohs last weekend - At one stage it looked like Souths would run away with the game and win by 30 points plus.
Both teams coming off games in hot weather, the Titans beating Manly in a very tight struggle. This could prove draining for them this week, especially since they played most of the game with 16 players after Harrison was concussed.
The Titans have only ever beaten the Panthers once at Penrith and that was by 2 points.
I'm expecting the Titans to come out a little flat after their physical performance last week.

#3 - Raiders +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
I'm leaning to passing this game as Canberra's last start win was against a woeful Dragons side. Very hard to get an accurate read on how this team is going this year. Both teams have not shown any consistency so far and Canberra did win in Newcastle last year.

#4 - Warriors +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
Not sure how much I can trust the Warriors at the moment - it is only round 4 but they are already at the crossroads - I reckon if they lose this game, then Matty Elliott is dead meat. The Cowboys are also struggling and need a result here to avoid a 1-3 start to the season.

Happy to hear your opinions as I haven't seen many teams go round this year.

[benrama]

Warriors +7.5 is an absolute gift in my opinion, the team will be fighting for it's life and it's coaches life. They are at home, and playing a cowgirls side that wouldn't have been my old uni second grade side last week. Expect a bounce back from NQ but not until they reach the comforts of home soil.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 4 PLAYS

Bet # 5 - Broncos +8 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 6 - Panthers +3.5 @ $1.90 - (TAB) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 7 - Raiders +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 8 - Warriors +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT


Good luck to all

[Tim Gerry Mander]

C'mon Broncos don't phuck it up now.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

After leading by 2 with about 15 minutes to go, the Broncos looked to have blown it by copping two tries to a rampant Storm side.

Luckily they hung tough and got a try to cash our first bet of the round.

Bet # 5 - Broncos +8 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Season Total: 2-3 [-1.17 UNITS]

No games tonight, enjoy the Southern Sydney derby.

2 games alive tomorrow and 1 on Monday.

GL to all for the rest of the weekend!

[sando]

ROUND 4 PLAYS

Bet # 5 - Broncos +8 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 6 - Panthers +3.5 @ $1.90 - (TAB) - 2 UNITS

Bet # 7 - Raiders +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT

Bet # 8 - Warriors +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT


Good luck to all

Nice looking card you have mate, expect a lot of points in Knights/Raiders, playing the over myself. Not so sure about the hapless warriors covering however, so much talent and yet can't put it together to save their lives. Have a feeling the Cowboys might do some damage in that one after last week's debacle...?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Cheers Sando,

Just think that this is a statement game for the Warriors.
They have been awful so far this year.
First game at Mt Smart this season and they are heavy underdogs.
They might not win, but they should cover the spread, especially as the Cows have been ordinary apart from their first game and are notoriously poor away from home.

After getting a touch up from the Storm at home, they should have played better last week against he Knights.
Their performance was mentally weak.

Unless the Warriors players want the coach out, I expect them to keep it close tomorrow.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sorry boys, terrible showing by the Panthers.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 4 PLAYS

Bet # 5 - Broncos +8 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 6 - Panthers +3.5 @ $1.90 - (TAB) - 2 UNITS - LOSS

Bet # 7 - Raiders +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 8 - Warriors +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - PENDING


Season Total: 2-5 [-4.17 UNITS]


Need the Warriors to get close to avoid a shocking weekend!
Both Panthers and Raiders kept it close but got blown away late in the second half.

The Raiders looked in the box seat at HT, leading 12-10 after a slow start. the Knights came out 2nd half and put a couple of tries on. At 22-12 down, the Raiders had some chances to mount pressure on the Knights but kept coming up with silly errors - Bad play the balls, falcons, knock-ons etc... Then the Knights after getting so much ball in good field position, scored a soft try to ice the game.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Warriors looked shot early on, but came back strong and ended up winning the game.

ROUND 4 PLAYS

Bet # 5 - Broncos +8 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Bet # 6 - Panthers +3.5 @ $1.90 - (TAB) - 2 UNITS - LOSS

Bet # 7 - Raiders +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - LOSS

Bet # 8 - Warriors +7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 1 UNIT - WIN

Round 4 Total: 2-2 [-1.17 UNITS]

Season Total: 3-5 [-3.25 UNITS]

[Tim Gerry Mander]

ROUND 5 - LEANS

Bulldogs ML @ $1.96 - Luxbet
Broncos +6 @ $1.92 - Sportsbet
Cowboys -12 @ $1.92 - Sportsbet
Raiders +6 @ $1.92 - Sportsbet
Tigers +14.5 @ 1.92 - Sportsbet

If the Bulldogs lose tomorrow night, they face an in-form Roosters side next week and could conceivably be sitting at 1-5 by the time of the ANZAC Test weekend. It's crunch time for them and who better to get a win against than Manly? Inu is a big out for the Dogs, as there is no ready goal-kicking replacement. Expect another tight tussle, so the Unders is a play here. Lafai has first-grade experience and looked good when given his chance a few seasons ago before injury struck. Tony Williams up against his former club adds some further spice to an already intriguing clash.

The Brisbane derby is usually a tight affair - some concern for the Broncos with Thaiday out suspended. He is a huge out for them and the line has only moved a point or two. Their bench is actually quite thin - big problems if your back up prop is Scott Anderson. Maybe Petero can pull the jumper back on for this one?

The Cowboys should bounce back well in this game, but as previously stated, the Panthers have covered this start in the last 6 games played in Townsville.

Surely the Roosters can't keep another clean sheet this weekend to make it 3 in a row? I expect the Raiders to pull their fingers out and at least keep it close. Sunday night game in freezing Canberra after Daylight Savings change. Roosters have a huge look-ahead game next Friday too, with SBW set to face the club he dogged so infamously 5 years ago. Might sneak a small play on the ML too.

Hopefully this line gets up to 16 by Monday night's kick-off. At 16, this is definitely a play on the Tigers. I like Anasta back in the halves, he will at least give Benji some help with his kicking and passing game. The Storm are getting tired after a series of tough games and long trips. They also have a top-of-the-table clash looming next week against the Rabbitohs. Look for the Storm to get out to a fast start, but concede a few points late in the game as the Tigers throw it around and the Storm rest some of their key players.