1. 10-04-12 08:59 AM #1
    That Guy
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    Thatguy's NBL Plays (Beta)

    Boredom after 1 week without NRL action and I'm giving the NBL a shot!

    It's a weak market with soft lines that can be exploited and is a good testing ground ahead of the NBA season. Unfortunately unlike the NBA I don't have access to all the stats I'd prefer. But this season with more games on TV and better coverage it should be a little easier to follow the Aussie basketball league.

    Operating NBL plays in 'beta' mode - meaning if desired results are achieved after a few rounds I'll invest more time into it, on the flip side if the bankroll drops below -3units I'll walk away.

    The same successful style of capping used earlier in the NRL Season that produced a 42+ unit profit will be used in the NBL. See here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sport...nrl-plays.html
    The same model has also been extensively modified for basketball and is still a work in progress. There are no 'plays for the hell of it' and you won't see crazy 5unit rolls of the dice like some other cappers.

    Anyway.. enough crap - let's see how this thing works!
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  2. 10-04-12 09:04 AM #2
    That Guy
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    NBL Regular Season 2012 0-0

    Round 1

    Play#1
    Breakers vs Wild Cats UNDER 167.5 1x 1.95
    Looks like we're getting a high total for this game. Less perimeter shooting from NZ due to the departure of Wilkinson will limit the amount of points we get on the board from the outside. Expecting a total around 163 and tight struggle between the 2 champs of last year.
    GL
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  3. 10-04-12 12:47 PM #3
    ThaBigG
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    Good luck bro ill be following!
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  4. 10-04-12 06:16 PM #4
    TBsp75
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    you are a genius!
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  5. 10-04-12 06:45 PM #5
    hawley
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    Good luck mate.

    I think Wildcats win tonight.
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  6. 10-04-12 08:43 PM #6
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    Good luck mate.

    I think Wildcats win tonight.
    Cheers mate - You're on the money Hawley
    Will take a while for Breakers to adjust to big changes in the middle I reckon. Smart money all over the Wildcats who would be hungry for a win in NZ.
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  7. 10-04-12 10:06 PM #7
    Domestic
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    You got a great total, I see it is already down to 164.5. Might put some on the under myself depending on how this TNF game ends up.
    Also good to see sportsbet streaming the NBL this season as well as more of it on TV.
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  8. 10-04-12 11:04 PM #8
    benandjerry
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    Best of luck, will keep an eye on your progress.
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  9. 10-04-12 11:07 PM #9
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domestic View Post
    You got a great total, I see it is already down to 164.5. Might put some on the under myself depending on how this TNF game ends up.
    Also good to see sportsbet streaming the NBL this season as well as more of it on TV.
    Sportsbet still holding a little higher at 166.5 but other books all over the shop at the moment.
    Gotta love the varied action you can get on Aussie lines.
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  10. 10-05-12 12:37 AM #10
    snufflyjoe
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    Thanks TG Ill be tailing best of luck man
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  11. 10-05-12 12:55 AM #11
    Mase of Base
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    Was on this aswell so good to see you're on the same side, didn't have time time to cap it so just went on a hunch! Breakers live and die by the 3 so I figured a bit of early season rust and against a good d would keep it under, here's hoping.
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  12. 10-05-12 02:33 AM #12
    Mase of Base
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    Damn thought the Breakers would defend a little bit. It's just all to easy for Perth at the moment a simple pass in and easy bucket, hopefully the Breakers get a grilling and decide to defend this half as we're a few points down at the moment. Did end up going large on Perth at qtr time at 1.65 so it'll be a slight profit if that cashes or complete burial if it doesn't!
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  13. 10-05-12 03:35 AM #13
    Mase of Base
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    Wow how did we hit that under, feel for overs backers in that one. In our defense that over shouldn't of hit in the last three minutes and it very nearly did. Breakers look average to me and yeah I know it's game one against probably the beast team in the league but that D was dreadful, they'll get away with that at home a few times but not all year, could be a good fade team early.
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  14. 10-05-12 03:42 AM #14
    snufflyjoe
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    Good start TG!
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  15. 10-05-12 04:38 AM #15
    ThaBigG
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    Great start TG. Thanks bro
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  16. 10-05-12 04:47 AM #16
    Duff85
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    Quote Originally Posted by That Guy View Post
    Sportsbet still holding a little higher at 166.5 but other books all over the shop at the moment.
    Gotta love the varied action you can get on Aussie lines.
    Sportsbet are so retarded. I just wish I didn't go through an account a month there.
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  17. 10-05-12 04:58 AM #17
    Domestic
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    A win is a win, congrats on the good start.
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  18. 10-05-12 07:09 PM #18
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domestic View Post
    A win is a win, congrats on the good start.
    Cheers mate.. great to get a win on play #1
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  19. 10-05-12 07:18 PM #19
    That Guy
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    updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 1-0 +0.95

    Round 1 1-0
    Good to get a win first up.. especially after the total started to rise very quickly on the back end of the 4th qtr.

    Play #2
    Taipans vs Crocodiles UNDER 154.5 1x 1.95
    It's a low total but both these sides have extremely low side totals - averaging only 70 and 66pts respectively in the pre season comp at close to full strength. Even if you take their highest totals we only get a combined total of 155. But with great D from the Crocs so far tonight's total should stay well UNDER even with the added motivation of a regular season match up.
    Playing the UNDER 154.5 1x 1.95. GL
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  20. 10-06-12 01:35 AM #20
    Crowing Capers
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    Great start TG !!!! 1/1

    Missed it last night but tailing here....
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  21. 10-06-12 07:02 AM #21
    That Guy
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    updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 1-1 -0.05

    Round 1 1-1
    Brutal To have the total go over by just 1.5 points is bad enough.. when it's 2x fouls in the last 30secs that's just horrible.
    Having a look at leans now for the TV game tomorrow..
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  22. 10-06-12 09:32 PM #22
    That Guy
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    NBL Regular Season 2012 1-1 -0.05

    Round 1 1-1

    Play #3
    36ers vs Tigers UNDER 167.5 1x 1.95
    Stats for this game have it pegged around 163 and we'd need a massively offensive game for Round 1 for the OVER to hit. Just don't see it happening after a pre-season tournament that produced low offensive numbers for both sides. It will be a heavily offensive game but expect a lower then average % on 3 pointers from the big guns in this match-up, ensuring the total falls a little short.
    Rolling with 1x on the UNDER 167.5 for this matchup.
    GL
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  23. 10-06-12 11:50 PM #23
    snufflyjoe
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    great call thanks again tg!
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  24. 10-07-12 01:46 AM #24
    Domestic
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    NBL sure likes to scare the shit out of us this year with the high scoring first halves, glad it calmed down more and more as the game went on.
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  25. 10-07-12 01:47 AM #25
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domestic View Post
    NBL sure likes to scare the shit out of us this year with the high scoring first halves, glad it calmed down more and more as the game went on.
    First half overs 4-0 so far.

    Even dating back to last year it was fairly common to see high scoring first halves then large scoring droughts.
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  26. 10-07-12 02:07 AM #26
    MrXYZ
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    Great call on the under.
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  27. 10-07-12 02:40 AM #27
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrXYZ View Post
    Great call on the under.
    Cheers mate.. all thanks to Tigers meltdown.
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  28. 10-07-12 02:42 AM #28
    That Guy
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    NBL Regular Season 2012 2-1 +0.90

    End Round 1 2-1
    Good end to the weekend. Will look to increase positions on games to maximise profit as the season rolls on.. for the moment keeping it tight until we get some data from more games. GL this week
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  29. 10-11-12 09:08 AM #29
    That Guy
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    NBL Regular Season 2012 2-1 +0.90

    Round 2

    Play #1
    Breakers vs 36ers UNDER 171.5 2x 1.95
    This total looks well over cooked. Breakers are not the team they were last year and their offense will take time to adjust on the edges. Suspect this week we'll see more D, more layups and less crazy shots for 3's. Stats simply don't add up for a side that got embarrassed last week, also believe 36ers will struggle with points after easy baskets against Melbourne last week.
    Have this game at 164 points and rolling 2x. GL

    Play #2
    Kings vs Tigers UNDER 161.5 1x 1.95
    While this match has potential as break out to hit the OVER I doubt it. Tigers in pre-season and round 1 this year are averaging only 66pts, while their highest total is just 78. Kings have higher figures but the total favours an UNDER for this matchup. Should get around 156 points based on stats, which is enough room to move. Locking in a 1x play on UNDER. GL

    Play #3
    Taipans vs Hawks OVER 152.5 1x 1.95
    Lowest total of the night but it won't take much for this one to roll OVER. Both teams averages are almost identical and if we see a few 3's hit then a total in the early 160's not impossible. However it should be much closer with around 75-80 for both sides. Have it at 158 combined total which makes it a play 1x OVER 152.5. GL
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  30. 10-12-12 01:35 AM #30
    That Guy
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    The above numbers have drifted a little.. but still confident with anything within 1-1.5 of original number
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  31. 10-12-12 06:59 AM #31
    That Guy
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    updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 3-3 +0.80

    Round 2 1-2
    Good to hit the big 2unit play which easily cashed. The other results were intriguing tonight with an extremely low scoring Taipans vs Hawks game and a fired up Kings / Tigers. Was looking like a 2 unit profit for the night but after all that we're evens... hopefully that changes tomorrow.
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  32. 10-13-12 08:42 PM #32
    That Guy
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    NBL Regular Season 2012 3-3 +0.80

    Round 2 1-2

    Play #4
    Crocodiles vs Wildcats UNDER 163.5 1x 1.95
    Have this game set at a much lower total of 152. Wildcats had a great game against the Breakers but should find it a little tougher against the Crocodiles who have a good habit of driving down totals and only average 69 points so far this year. Wouldn't expect it to be lights out basketball like last week vs Taipans for the Crocs.. Wildcats are much smarter and will look to slow things down if fatigue becomes an issue. Rolling with 1x on the UNDER for this matchup. GL

    Play #5
    Crocodiles vs Wildcats ML 1x 1.75
    Looks like a no brainer given the Wildcats start to the season and whilst there is motivation for the Crocs to record their first win of the season it'll be a tough ask. Have the Wildcats to win this one in what should be a great game of basketball on TV. Locking in the Wildcats on a rare and opportunistic ML play at 1x 1.75. GL
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  33. 10-13-12 09:54 PM #33
    Domestic
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    Also on the under, let's get the money.
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  34. 10-14-12 01:54 AM #34
    That Guy
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    updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 5-3 +2.50

    Round 2 3-2

     Up 2x plays today after a strong performance from the Wildcats and a low scoring total.... the grind continues next week!
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  35. 10-15-12 01:55 AM #35
    hjrozay
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    Great start TG, that Hawks vs Taipans game was a shocker. Looking forward to next weeks action. Makes the off-season go quicker without the NRL season.
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