Told you the Lions were a good bet!!!
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07-01-12 06:40 AM #36
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07-04-12 09:54 PM #37
Round 15
West Coast Eagles o -15.5 2.060 2 units
Essendon Bombers o -19.5 2.01 2 units
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07-05-12 04:19 AM #38
Bombers v saints under 200.5
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07-05-12 05:10 AM #39
I expect the saints to be competitive for a while so that might absorb the scoring enough to go under, interesting, good luck.
Originally Posted by alias69
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07-06-12 03:19 AM #40
Footy has become a ghost at sbr
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07-06-12 03:46 AM #41
Yeah, maybe others have had a few bad losses, hope not. Friday used to be active. Gee and Coochy were big draw cards, wonder where they went?
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07-06-12 03:46 AM #42
I think Collingwood will cover around 30.5, not betting yet. Not sure...
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07-06-12 04:07 AM #43
Alright, I pulled the trigger, I want a more interesting friday,
Pies -29.5 $1.90 X 4 units.
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 07-06-12 at 07:28 AM.
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07-06-12 04:51 AM #44
Trolls got to them Originally Posted by Lookingtostart
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07-06-12 05:04 AM #45
That's right, I remember.
Hopefully we can turn that around.
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07-06-12 07:30 AM #46
That was a square bet, I wanted action. Why did I take it... oh yeah, I also wanted to rollover a bonus Originally Posted by Lookingtostart
Alright, I pulled the trigger, I want a more interesting friday,
Pies -29.5 $1.90 X 4 units.
.
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07-06-12 09:17 AM #47
My phone wouldn't let me post on here, went to the game knowing a loss was well and truly on the cards, and had a go at Carlton covering the line, and also the under (at 180.5). Haven't been able to comment until I got home, this was always a danger one for us. We never match up well on the blues, they're too quick up forward for us.
Hopefully the rest of the weekend plays out a little more friendly. like Brisbane to cover, as well as GWS to cover. GL with your other wagers LTS and anyone else on here still betting AFL!
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07-06-12 07:03 PM #48
Eagles minus the points and Eagles/swans multi for me today ... Also looking at over in essendon/saints
I still think north are pretenders, they do well at etihad but away from that venue they can barely beat the gold coast suns. West coast would have won by 50 if they could have kicked half straight in round 6
West coast have the talls at the back to counter north, and while this is an away game for the eagles it basically is for north too. Goldstein will be no chance to stop both cox and nit nat.
Small play also on eagles 40+
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07-06-12 07:25 PM #49
I like under in NW v WC. Cold and maybe wet is rather different to playing at Ethiad and they have put up 200.5 at NSW TAB.
Essendon -18 seems very attractive to me. Saints fielding a pretty weak side and know how to give up a big score while Essendon are rolling.
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07-06-12 08:51 PM #50
Thanks guys for your input, I agree with those plays as well so pulled the trigger on them,
Eagles/North under -197.5 1 unit
Essendon -18.5 another unit on that one.
I'm staying away from -+40s this week.
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07-06-12 09:16 PM #51
Blundstone Arena... Hobart...
.
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07-06-12 09:54 PM #52
Melbourne +32.5 1.5 units
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07-06-12 10:33 PM #53
On West Coast -14.5, Demons +32.5 , Lions +34.5
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07-06-12 10:34 PM #54
er i checked the launceston forecast, hobart is meant to be fine. my bad.
don't mind the sydney over. its raining a bit but swans scored 138 in heavy rain against melbourne at scg. brisbane are generally high scoring and swans totals still seem to be set a bit low from past years when they were low scoring.
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07-07-12 05:45 PM #55
Well didn't exactly nail that west coast game
Still, west coast should have won by 20 if they'd kicked straight and converted some sitters, but credit to north for taking their chances, fortunately the Swans came through to stop the night being a disaster.
Only looking at Freo game today ... First lean was Freo now I'm thinking bulldogs, probably will sit it out. Pinny won't offer a ML on the Hawks game, probably know some people will go all in for free money
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07-07-12 10:04 PM #56
I agree,
I'm on Dockers -31.5 1 unit,
Gold Coast +54.5 1 unit,
I think Bulldogs are just not a good team for Subiaco, GC seem to be competitive one week and not the other, trying to fire up a team and putting them under pressure to perform well only works short term, and maybe Malcolm Blight can help them to cover.Last edited by Lookingtostart; 07-08-12 at 05:10 AM.
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07-08-12 05:07 AM #57
Originally Posted by Lookingtostart
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07-08-12 05:08 AM #58
Originally Posted by Lookingtostart
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07-08-12 05:09 AM #59
Originally Posted by Lookingtostart
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07-08-12 05:14 AM #60
I keep trying to flat bet but for some reason I can't help myself. I would have only lost to the vig this weekend if I did so. I need to have more self discipline.
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07-08-12 07:29 AM #61
Tough couple of weeks, pretty glad I've taken it fairly easy and limited the damage. Hopefully the tide will turn a bit more in the next few weeks.
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07-08-12 05:54 PM #62
Given the start of the weekend, nice finish LTS.
Flat betting is actually a poor long term strategy as you don't have the same edge in every game. Problem is we over estimate the number of times we have an edge.
Selectively choosing two to three plays a month to go bigger on (and I mean 5X max) is the only way I've found to beat the books ... To be honest the rest of my betting is a break even entertainment pursuit
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07-08-12 08:57 PM #63
Originally Posted by benrama
Given the start of the weekend, nice finish LTS.
Flat betting is actually a poor long term strategy as you don't have the same edge in every game. Problem is we over estimate the number of times we have an edge.
Selectively choosing two to three plays a month to go bigger on (and I mean 5X max) is the only way I've found to beat the books ... To be honest the rest of my betting is a break even entertainment pursuit
Sharp post.
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07-08-12 09:28 PM #64
I totally agree, if you know your edge on each individual game, like you said, we overestimate the number of times we have an edge unless we have stats/spreadsheets that say otherwise. Originally Posted by benrama
Given the start of the weekend, nice finish LTS.
Flat betting is actually a poor long term strategy as you don't have the same edge in every game. Problem is we over estimate the number of times we have an edge.
Selectively choosing two to three plays a month to go bigger on (and I mean 5X max) is the only way I've found to beat the books ... To be honest the rest of my betting is a break even entertainment pursuit
The thing is I don't know my edge for one reason or another, so the safest is to flat bet.
Having said that, I should have gone bigger on Lions/Melbourne game! And I shouldn't chase bets and all the other disciplined things If I were to go big. Not now, not until I get some sort of spreadsheet going, I am trying to do this with soccer but I can't quite work out how to compile data efficiently.
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07-09-12 11:49 PM #65
Who's on gold coast this weekend?
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07-10-12 02:40 AM #66
Unbeaten at Cazaly, sure things! Originally Posted by brettels
Line is just under 6 goals, that is lower than I expected. Might consider a play on the tigers to cover.
What are you thinking at the moment LTS? I Like all of the bombers, tigers and blues to cover their lines, and think the hawks will struggle to cover. might back a few of those and chuck them in a multi this week!
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07-10-12 07:22 AM #67
Coopertrooper, I'm drinking Coopers as I type this; I haven't had the chance to look at the lines yet, been studying poker, blackjack and video poker, just found out today that there's no video poker in Adelaide... so that's where I'm at.
Regarding Gold Coast, I will probably just follow the line close to the opening bounce. I will say this though, Gold Coast seem to handle themselves like this: They get thrashed one week, they have firecrackers put up their tails by everyone then they respond well the next week being competitive. They relax after that and the whole cycle start again. Based on that and the 33.5 line, I would go with Tigers. But I'm not going to, because Malcolm Blight is a good coach and this is too much of an unknown variable that has been thrown in.
Guy Mckenna is a typical naive coach who plays too defensively and reacts that way during games. When he had/has Ablett as a rotating backman, oh jeez, what a waste.
They were a bit different last week, and Malcolm likes to have more balanced structure and it showed.
But maybe I'm over analysing, Tigers should cover. I'll be barracking for GC though.
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07-10-12 07:24 AM #68
Originally Posted by brettels
from me too. I think Tigers and Hardasswick will be filthy with what happened last year. I'd like to hear your thoughts Brettels!
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07-12-12 10:57 PM #69
I'm sick of fµcking Carlton on a friday night, what a vanilla game this will be
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So there's only one way to make this game exciting...
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07-12-12 11:50 PM #70
Didn't carlton have a losing streak after beating the pies early in the year? Un trustable!
That said, Carlton at the line.
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