[Starkx]

Thoughts on this week's games? Plenty of byes so not as many opportunities but still plenty to be made i reckon

im thinking Carlton could stand a chance against Geelong at Ethihad although they have lost 4 of 4 of their last games there against Geelong but the last time they met they only lost by 2 points to an in form Geelong side. Betting on the favourite here is risky.

Richmond should beat Fremantle comfortably.

Hawthorn should beat Port quite comfortably also. Might parlay big on Hawthorn and Richmond.

Sydney is also a worthwhile bet against the Dons, coming from a huge victory against the Dogs last week, but you never know, the Dons might fire up because of last week's lost against Melbourne. Kind of undecided on this one

The other two games are not worth looking at for me. Not the best round in terms of betting, plenty of byes, but should still make some

All in all, my picks are:

Carlton over Geelong 1-39 at 3.20 5 units
Hawthorn over Port over 40 at 2.40 5 units
Richmond over Fremantle over 40 at 2.45 5 units
Parlay Hawthorn and Richmond for outright wins 20 units
Sydney over Essendon at 2.40 5 units

Edit: Picks

[acl123]

Good day mate.

[cutchemist42]

I really like playing Carlton.

[Starkx]

Updated my picks. Very confident on the parlay, Hawthorn to win over 40 and Sydney are the only two games I'm worried about.

[Coopertrooper]

Tough week. Don't see much value yet, will have to wait and see what the totals are like later in the week. At least i should halt my terrible run if there isn't much to bet on

[Starkx]

Guessing you've been following roxxy :P

[ACoochy]

Good to see new posters interested in this sport...

Welcome starky, enjoy ur stay

[raydog]

this is one of those hawks games that looks a little easy...but then i remember how much they have fukked us this year...hawthorn is jinxed at AAMI and Port has found some solid form... dont think i could play hawks 40+ here...looking at 1-39 though...

carlton is flat out fukking horrible right now, even getting a few guys back this week...who knows if geelong is really much better though, especially at etihad...i dunno about this game either...probably just watch

how the fukk the dons lost to the demons last week is still perplexing... fukking coochy fixed that match, im almost positive...they have lost 2 games by a total of 7pts...and have owned teams at etihad where the swans have issues...most likely making a play on the bombers here

ill wait on cooch and the boys before putting the hammer down ...

[ACoochy]

Leaning Port +26.5 already RD. May wait and see what direction the line goes...Strange as this sounds wouldnt be surprised if they win SU...

Dont get me wrong, Hawks had a massive win last week but it was against a team that was near its lowest ebb in terms of form and confidence, so besides Buddys performance and the hot/cold Ryoli im not taking too much out of that win. And as u said they play HORRIBLE at AAMI.

Power have their tales up. Last time they won 3 in a row was in 2007 when they made the GF (and got belted by a record 117 points)...

Why do u think the line is only 26.5?? This has trap written all over it for hawks backers imo. Maybe wrong, but i maybe right...

EDIT: Schultz out, no lean on this game anymore..

[Starkx]

Good to see new posters interested in this sport...

Welcome starky, enjoy ur stay

Thanks mate

[Lookingtostart]

Is Tigers -28.5 a gift or a trap? Seems too good to be true.

Essendon -9.5 is interesting, I would have thought it would be higher.

Saints -45.5...

These are my leans, feel strong about Tigers.

With Port, I'm too biased so I might need help with that. Hawks won against them at AAMI by 165 pts last year. I know, they're both a different team this year but it doesn't fill me with confidence.

[therealdealau]

Leaning Port +26.5 already RD. May wait and see what direction the line goes...Strange as this sounds wouldnt be surprised if they win SU...

Dont get me wrong, Hawks had a massive win last week but it was against a team that was near its lowest ebb in terms of form and confidence, so besides Buddys performance and the hot/cold Ryoli im not taking too much out of that win. And as u said they play HORRIBLE at AAMI.

Power have their tales up. Last time they won 3 in a row was in 2007 when they made the GF (and got belted by a record 117 points)...

Why do u think the line is only 26.5?? This has trap written all over it for hawks backers imo. Maybe wrong, but i maybe right...

The line is extremely interesting, I thought it to be a little low considering Schulz is a likely out. Still i think without Schulz they might have trouble keeping up on the score board.

I think Bombers -9.5 is the play for this round

[Coopertrooper]

I can't trust port, I feel as if they only need to get to 5 goals down and they'll lose confidence. Schulz being out is enough for me to stay away from the match. With him in I'd lean Hawks 1-39.

Still can't see much value, will wait for the totals

[ACoochy]

Is Tigers -28.5 a gift or a trap? Seems too good to be true.

Essendon -9.5 is interesting, I would have thought it would be higher.

Saints -45.5...

These are my leans, feel strong about Tigers.

With Port, I'm too biased so I might need help with that. Hawks won against them at AAMI by 165 pts last year. I know, they're both a different team this year but it doesn't fill me with confidence.

Starter, I thought that belting the Hawks gave port last season was on Hawks home territory:confused:

[Lookingtostart]

Starter, I thought that belting the Hawks gave port last season was on Hawks home territory:confused:

Sorry, wrong 100+ thrashing, it was the Pies who thrashed them 100+ at AAMI in 2011.

[Bbr]

Tigers - whatever is the play of the round. They win by over 40.

When was the last time freo won at the MCG

[mjespoz]

Good point, Bbr.... Freo last won at the MCG in Round 4 in 2007 against Melbourne (who were winless at the time)

[Bbr]

My point exactly. Tigers are in sizzling form as well so hard to not take them here

[Gee]

I can't bring myself to contribute to this thread.

20 unit parlay laying -200 or some crap.

Good luck guys. I'll be down the road and in chat.

[benrama]

Lol Gee I feel the same way, I'm on Geelong tonight at least they look like they can play 4 quarters

[alister888]

Hey guys, relatively new to sbr... Anyway, for what it's worth, tonight, I'm leaning Carlton for the line +14.5 or even the win (2.80). Whilst their previous few matches have been very poor (thumped by Port last week) as well as other losses, Geelong aren't at the level they were at over the past few years. Carlton will dominate the ruck and contested possessions tonight, despite the absence of Murphy and I don't see any value in an inconsistent Geelong side ML at 1.44 (bet365), especially after their patchy form this year (they were level with GWS in Geelong at HT last week). I also think the blues' leg speed will contribute greatly to obtaining a result in their favour as Geelong can struggle against fast-running teams. Judd is set for a big game against a Cameron Ling-less Geelong side. Carlton need to bounce back against the reigning premiers at Etihad -where Geelong have recently struggled. They should show some heart and cover the 14.5 points in my opinion.
The other match I like:
- Essendon to bounce back -10.5 (bet365.com) at Etihad vs Sydney. Essendon got ahead of themselves last week and were embarassed. Aside from this blip, they've been excellent all season and in Melbourne vs Sydney, I think they'll cover the line.
Good luck everyone

[MatI]

Pods confirmed out for Geelong. I'm liking Carlton to cover the points for sure now.

[alister888]

Blues ending up covering, just.. They had a lot of opportunities in that 4th Q to get the win but couldn't convert. Ah well onto the next one