1. 05-13-12 11:46 PM #1
    Gee
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    AFL play - starts in 5 hours

    Boys.

    I implore you to get on Blues -25.5 tonight.

    Saints are pretenders and this will be shown tonight.

    This line is steaming big time. I got 4.5x down at -25.5.

    -25.5 is still there at -110 at 5dimes and -118 at bwin. Its now -27.5 at Pinny and almost every other shop.
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  2. 05-14-12 01:50 AM #2
    GAMBLOR777
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    pass
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  3. 05-14-12 02:17 AM #3
    Bbr
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    Fk it blues tonight
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  4. 05-14-12 02:18 AM #4
    Bbr
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    Nice and fresh at docklands tonight. Perfect weather for a hamstring
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  5. 05-14-12 02:41 AM #5
    Gee
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    I'm sure they'll warm up properly

    Gamblor: understand the concern on the play. This is from the other AFL thread as to some of my reasoning.

    Quote Originally Posted by ACoochy View Post
    Gee fyi u r aware that Saints have taken out 13 of the last 16 encounters between the two?

    Sure, blues r clearly the better team on form but as u said, do they show up tonight and cover easily or will saints continue to be the mental thorn in the blues side??

    GL here everyone
    Coochy, the history scares the feck out of me, but I don't put a lot of store in that, particularly given what happened to Carlton this decade. You can probably take 6 years out (2003 - 2009) where they were 1) already rebuilding 2) got slammed losing their draft picks. If you take the last 4 games (from 2009), they are split with Carlton's two wins coming at Etihad. I don't think the Saints hold any fear for the Blues... gamestyle or psychologically.

    We are only now finally seeing a fully rebuilt Carlton team from about 2002. I think they way they play is different to how they used to go about it and they should be too quick and too big for the Saints today. Saints play a fairly slow press, which I think the Blues speed and footskills will be able to exploit.

    My personal view is that the Saints need to rebuild and are good fade material. They have been perennially overvalued since the start of last season.

    These hoodoos are meant to be broken. I remember last year when I took Swans huge over Carlton in the wet at the SCG, where Carlton hadn't won in... well I dunno if they'd ever won there before hand.

    I don't know if I'll be around to post, but I'll bail out for 2x at half time if I can get a decent middle opportunity, unless it just looks like Carlton are having their way.
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  6. 05-14-12 02:52 AM #6
    shari91
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    Yes! I got on this whatever day I posted in the other thread at 24.5 - they'll get it done Gee
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  7. 05-14-12 03:07 AM #7
    daimoshokage
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    thanks guy.. but pass..
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  8. 05-14-12 03:12 AM #8
    brettels
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    ML only for me! GL GEE! You know "imploring" has failed in the past, hope this isn't a jynx.
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  9. 05-14-12 03:16 AM #9
    Pride
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    i think the saints come to play today. saints are more than capable of knocking a few goals in themselves and carlton's speed can be negated by the saints backline
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  10. 05-14-12 03:21 AM #10
    brettels
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    Thanks for un jynxing the bet pride
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  11. 05-14-12 03:26 AM #11
    starfire
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    ArenaFootball?
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  12. 05-14-12 03:27 AM #12
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by starfire View Post
    ArenaFootball?

    Australian Rules Football!
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  13. 05-14-12 03:28 AM #13
    starfire
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    I know
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  14. 05-14-12 03:30 AM #14
    Coopertrooper
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    I'm sticking away for result bets on this match. Carlton ML is definately safe, but the line can go either way, I'd be carefull! But GL all the same guys, hopefully everyone can finish off the round well in the black
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  15. 05-14-12 04:49 AM #15
    Pride
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    Quote Originally Posted by brettels View Post
    Thanks for un jynxing the bet pride
    i dont see the edge for betting on the blues. has nothing to do with jinxing anything
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  16. 05-14-12 05:01 AM #16
    Crowing Capers
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    Blues looking very sharp early...
    Total game score was 177.5 over/under.
    This going over big time.getting on live blues and overs
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  17. 05-14-12 05:12 AM #17
    Pride
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    game is definitely going over. saints look like a sure cover at this rate
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  18. 05-14-12 05:16 AM #18
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crowing Capers View Post
    Blues looking very sharp early...
    Total game score was 177.5 over/under.
    This going over big time.getting on live blues and overs
    I got off my fat ass awhile ago and jumped on over 188.5 thinking that was a bit risky and now it's 201.5 - I'm watching the Voice now so I have no clue wtf is going on in this game. No defence?
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  19. 05-14-12 05:18 AM #19
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    I got off my fat ass awhile ago and jumped on over 188.5 thinking that was a bit risky and now it's 201.5 - I'm watching the Voice now so I have no clue wtf is going on in this game. No defence?
    Lots of very open play at the moment. Both teams going very direct.

    To give you an idea, blues kicked in from a saints behind, and had a goal 9 seconds later.
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  20. 05-14-12 05:19 AM #20
    jjgold
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    Shari go clean your fukkin house

    I never saw a girl that gambles day and night
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  21. 05-14-12 05:20 AM #21
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pride View Post
    game is definitely going over. saints look like a sure cover at this rate
    I'm assuming this means Blues cover easily!
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  22. 05-14-12 05:26 AM #22
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Shari go clean your fukkin house

    I never saw a girl that gambles day and night
    House is clean you prick... working right now. I think the couple of AFL bets I make a week doesn't = day or night. Thanks for the concern though you giraffe.
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  23. 05-14-12 05:28 AM #23
    Gee
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    Yeah, not liking the look of this
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  24. 05-14-12 05:29 AM #24
    MatI
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    Still early Gee. My half time bet is dead though i think...
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  25. 05-14-12 05:29 AM #25
    Pride
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    I'm assuming this means Blues cover easily!

    one section i dont mess around in is this one. i am on the saints and right now it looks like it should be an easy cover, so much so i dont feel the need to watch the rest of the match.

    night guys
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  26. 05-14-12 05:30 AM #26
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    Lots of very open play at the moment. Both teams going very direct.

    To give you an idea, blues kicked in from a saints behind, and had a goal 9 seconds later.
    unreal

    Hopefully at least the over hits because just from peeking at 365 live scores my Blues bet isn't looking so hot. Still can get the Saints for +9.5 if anyone thinks they'll win or keep it close all the way through.
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  27. 05-14-12 05:33 AM #27
    Bbr
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    Not looking gd. Saints came to play. Blues need too lift and increase there pressure
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  28. 05-14-12 05:35 AM #28
    MatI
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    Blues are not getting much luck at the moment. I still think they win but cover looks less and less likely now.

    Liz Hurley looks bored shitless!
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  29. 05-14-12 06:00 AM #29
    brettels
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    Pride!!!!!! Youuuuuuuuuuu son of a
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  30. 05-14-12 06:29 AM #30
    kingsr
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    Monday night curse! Those that follow league will understand this.

    Underdogs win on Monday's, too often.
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  31. 05-14-12 06:34 AM #31
    Gee
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    Yup buried. Some live over joy presuming nothing silly happens in the last quarter... but nothing like giving back what I won on Freo yesterday.

    f\*\*k.
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  32. 05-14-12 06:36 AM #32
    brettels
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    I'm feeling that pain! Been waiting all week for the carlton ML to finish off a multi! Ouch
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  33. 05-14-12 06:42 AM #33
    kingsr
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    Still time for the ML bretts
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  34. 05-14-12 07:48 AM #34
    Coopertrooper
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    Ouch. Sorry to see you guys go down, the over was safe very early, so apart from loving seeing the blues lose, it isn't a pretty result.

    There are still good value bets out there if you don't go too hard. The books have fairly sharp lines, but the point totals have been way off in a number of games, they are the ones to look for at the moment.

    GL next week guys.
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  35. 05-14-12 07:52 AM #35
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    Yup buried. Some live over joy presuming nothing silly happens in the last quarter... but nothing like giving back what I won on Freo yesterday.

    f\*\*k.
    Yeah that sucks man. I liked this bet from like Wednesday or Thursday. Unreal how this went down. My only blessing is that I called in that live bet on the over or I'd be fuming right now. Still pissed off though - hate the Saints.
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