[Bazz27]

crows were terrible last week against the swans

[benrama]

Like it and will be on it too. They beat Freo by nearly 30 just a month ago - yes OK no Sandilands - and you can bet they will be fired up to make amends for last weeks debacle.

Probably going to go ML to be conservative.

[Bic]

crows were terrible last week against the swans

They were terrible in regards to finishing.

They had 22 more inside 50's on the day. Credit to Sydney when it is due, they were lethal in front of goal and were fantastic on a counter. But Adelaide are a good team. They get a week to think about what happened and fix any leaks.

They face Fremantle, a team that finished 8th. A team that has to travel 2 weeks in a row, from Perth. They put a valiant effort against Geelong and really surprised them early. Only winning in the end of 16 points. They should have won by 50. A win against Geelong shouldn't be underestimated, but the bookies were a little too kind in regards to the line here. Adelaide will win this by 4 goals + and expect Walker and Tippett to do a lot more damage than Hawkins + Podsiadley did last week (who between them managed 0 goals).

Ross Lyon had a terrible record at AAMI stadium when he was with St Kilda, and it is not a place you want to travel too.

That confident, I am very tempted to add another 10 units to the HT line.

[Gee]

Hey buddy. Long time no see. This is my first post about an AFL game in a few months.

I think the lines are pretty sharp on both games. I won't be playing very big on anything.

I don't think Lyon's record at AAMI is too bad. Its about break-even, which is all you really ask for away. The problem I have with the Crows is that they have not been rather inconsistent in the last two months. They are also a side that really strive on perfect possessions and efficient ball usage, which is not how finals are played. Freo, on the other hand, play a style that should stand up in finals - a bit like Sydney. If the Crows get strangled, they will lose. The game style of regular season is much different to finals, so I don't place a lot of store in the result a month ago.

As for the Eagles game, I dunno what to make of it. I like the Pies, but the Eagles have been red hot. I dunno how to work the J-Mac factor in either. Do they come fired up like the Swans did last year when they were doing it for Jarrad McVeigh's kid or flat like Wests Tigers earlier this year when Robbie Farrah's mum died? Uncappable, so unplayable for me. I'll have about 20 West Coast fans at my house, so probably for the best, because I like the Pies.

[hawley]

Hey buddy. Long time no see. This is my first post about an AFL game in a few months.

I think the lines are pretty sharp on both games. I won't be playing very big on anything.

I don't think Lyon's record at AAMI is too bad. Its about break-even, which is all you really ask for away. The problem I have with the Crows is that they have not been rather inconsistent in the last two months. They are also a side that really strive on perfect possessions and efficient ball usage, which is not how finals are played. Freo, on the other hand, play a style that should stand up in finals - a bit like Sydney. If the Crows get strangled, they will lose. The game style of regular season is much different to finals, so I don't place a lot of store in the result a month ago.

As for the Eagles game, I dunno what to make of it. I like the Pies, but the Eagles have been red hot. I dunno how to work the J-Mac factor in either. Do they come fired up like the Swans did last year when they were doing it for Jarrad McVeigh's kid or flat like Wests Tigers earlier this year when Robbie Farrah's mum died? Uncappable, so unplayable for me. I'll have about 20 West Coast fans at my house, so probably for the best, because I like the Pies.

Keep in mind the Tigers flat out stunk without Farah playing this season.

Where as the other situations seem to be teams rallying in difficult circumstances without having lost a key player.

[hawley]

Oh and Gee...where you been pal?

[Gee]

Hawley, I agree re: Farrah, but I watched that game and Tigers were fukn flat. It didn't help that Benji was bawling his eyes out during the minute of silence. You usually see a team fired up in that situation. I think the bottom line is that you don't know how a team will react emotionally to something like this - it could go either way. I can't see myself getting up after a mate of mine died. I just wouldn't feel like playing footy.

I've been about mate. I check in from time to time and open the forum most days, but I've been focussing on a lot of life stuff - mainly work. I just don't get much out of SBR. Does anyone? Or is it just a distraction from our boring lives?. It was a distraction for me and now that I'm mainly off it, I find that I'm always able to find something productive to do these days ahead of SBR. I may post AFL plays again somewhere next year. We'll see.

[Lookingtostart]

Regarding the McCarthy factor, if Collingwood deliberately use this to try to inspire themselves, they will loose. This sort of inspiration needs to come from within, not from attention whoring themselves as they usually do. As it stands with me, it is an unknown factor so far.
I think the way the Eagles have been able to come back together as a team has been impressive and will be a factor in them getting over the line.

[hawley]

Hawley, I agree re: Farrah, but I watched that game and Tigers were fukn flat. It didn't help that Benji was bawling his eyes out during the minute of silence. You usually see a team fired up in that situation. I think the bottom line is that you don't know how a team will react emotionally to something like this - it could go either way. I can't see myself getting up after a mate of mine died. I just wouldn't feel like playing footy.

I've been about mate. I check in from time to time and open the forum most days, but I've been focussing on a lot of life stuff - mainly work. I just don't get much out of SBR. Does anyone? Or is it just a distraction from our boring lives?. It was a distraction for me and now that I'm mainly off it, I find that I'm always able to find something productive to do these days ahead of SBR. I may post AFL plays again somewhere next year. We'll see.

I will track you down one way or another

[Bic]

Welcome back Gee!

Appreciate your comments.

Fremantle played out of their skins last week, unfortunately that was their grand final. Too much travel for an inexperienced side who average less than 90 games per player.

Adelaide have the better midfield. Everyone talks about the dominance of sandilands but his hit out to advantage ratio won't be as easy against a big strong able ruckman in Sam jacobs.

Freo will stay close, but will be ran over just like the last time they played. Look out for the under in this match!!

[binomial]

Fremantle's only loss in the last 10 games was the one in Adelaide, although they had an easy schedule. My take on that game is that Fremantle played poorly, rather than Adelaide being better than them.

Sydney put the pressure on and Adelaide couldn't do anything. Fremantle have been better than Sydney defensively. If they are not flat from the travel I think they will cause adelaide problems.

Its going to be a fairly cold night which can lead to scrappy contests in adelaide.

I like fremantle +9.5 and maybe some 1-39.

[Gee]

I think you're right on a few things Bic. Bottom line is I don't have a great read on a side in this game. Finals lines are always sharper than reg season and harder to cap for obvious reasons.

I'm on the under 175.5 tonight. Good luck on your huge play. Lets hope we both win. Another winning season regardless!

[benrama]

Adelaide had 34 scoring shots to Fremantles 21 last time they met, if Adelaide had kicked more accurately they'd have won by nearly 50.

I think too much is made of Adelaide struggling against a smothering defense, they beat Sydney at their own ground during the season, I was at that game and Adelaide simply beat them through superior midfield play.

I'm taking the conservative ML route tonight, combining it with Ferrer in the tennis to get close to even odds.

BOL all.

[benrama]

BOL TG, I'm on Manly ML and will wait to see the pace of the game to jump on a total, lean over too.

Game time!

[Bic]

woo!!!

[benrama]

Haha epic cover for you! Freo crumbled there under pressure, it was their game to win.

Eagles ML for me tonight all the way, Pies have no team chemistry and have too many players out of form.

[Bic]

Haha epic cover for you! Freo crumbled there under pressure, it was their game to win.

Eagles ML for me tonight all the way, Pies have no team chemistry and have too many players out of form.

Hey Benny,

What a cover it was though! When the Crows went up by 16 points with 3 minutes to go, I was feeling confident, then next centre bounce Freo score a goal within 20 seconds. I've had a few taken away from me in the last minute this year, so it was good to get this.

I think it was noticeable in the second half that Freo were tiring, especially guys like Sandilands, Ballantyne, Pavlich and Hill. They just weren't their influential selves. Usually you could count on these guys to always make an impact on the contest. The exceptions were David Mundy and Michael Walters who I thought were Incredible.

Tex Walker is a superstar. Imagine what he would be capable if his head was right.

I disagree with you about tonight though. I think Collingwood get up in a close one. They have a good record at the MCG and especially against West Coast there. By no means am I as confident as last night, but I think unless you got the opening eagles line, the only value is either side under 39.

I'll be making a small play on them.

Best of luck though!

[Bic]

Collingwood WIN Under 39 @2.50 x1.5

[hedgejob]

Collingwood WIN

[Bic]

2/2 in the semis, let's take this streak into the prelims! Yeahhh buddy!!

I update this while on a bucks night, makes it even better woooo!!

[Bic]

Sydney Swans WIN 1-39 @2.15 x2

Swans get up in a close one and break the drought against the pies.

2012 AFL Finals Record 4-3 (+8.635 units)

[Bic]

Hawthorn WIN 1-39 @2.60 x1

2012 AFL Finals Record 5-3 (+10.935 units)

[Bic]

2/2 prelims.

Gonna be a great game next week. Early lean is on the BLOODS!!!

2012 AFL Finals Record 6-3 (+12.535 units)

[Bic]

My Brownlow tip for the night is Jobe Watson to be leading after Round 10. Can get just over even money for it.

Have a good night!

[Bic]

Hope some of you got on this! big win

[Bic]

AFL 2012 GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans

Weather: 15 degrees Celsius

This is the first time that Hawthorn and Sydney have met each other in the Grand Final.

Hawthorn: Will need to improve on their performance from their preliminary final win against Adelaide. Whatever Adelaide could do to Hawthorn, Sydney will do it better. Hawthorn's goalkicking let them down last week and almost cost them the game, but to be honest, they have never been an accurate goal kicking team. The Hawks are the most in form team in the competition, and they have that winning mentality that it is actually HARDER to lose a game! They will need key personal to step up in this game.

Sam Mitchell: Will be tagged by Craig Bird. Has always found it tough against Sydney. I think if he can get loose and find the footy, then the Hawks go a lot further to winning the game. He is crucial for the Hawks center clearance work. Must be stopped at all costs for Sydney to have a chance at winning.

Matt Suckling, Grant Birchall & Shaun Burgoyne: These 3 blokes off the half back line need to be clean with their possession. The swans will tag one of these players, increasing the pressure onto the other couple of players. The fewer turnovers in the back half of the ground, the better chance of the Hawks playing their keepings off brand of football.

Cyril Rioli & Lance Franklin: These 2 guys need to kick a minimum of 5 goals between them. They are the most crucial pieces of the puzzle and have bailed Hawthorn out of trouble on many occasions.

David Hale: Needs to hold up against Shane Mumford (and Mike Pyke). He loses out on height and strength, needs to hold his head high and never give up.

Sydney: The bloods played a fantastic game against Collingwood. What I am worried about the most is the 10-15 minute lapses of concentration they have in their game. They let Collingwood back in the game, when it really should have been put to bed. Against a team like Hawthorn, if you fall asleep, you will quickly find yourself down by 5-6 goals in a matter of 5 minutes. Look at the last time these 2 played. The exact same scenario happened and it cost Sydney the 4 points.

Josh P. Kennedy: This son of a gun has a blood line that is all Hawthorn. They let him go before Travis Tuck, who famously and sadly fell away to drugs. He is hungry and always plays like he has a point to prove. He will be tough to stop. He is too big for anyone in the Hawks team to tag, besides Brad Sewell. Not sure they will want to sacrifice Sewells game though.

Ryan O'Keefe, Jarrad McVeigh & Daniel Hannebery: Need to win the midfield battle against Hawthorn. If they can win tackles and clearances, then the Swans put themselves on a level playing field against a superior skilled side.

Lewis Jetta: Players like Jetta famously go missing in tough games. He needs to keep his form from last week and kick a couple of crucial goals. He will likely be tagged closely. Needs to put his body on the line when the time comes. No excuses.

Final Verdict: The weather will suit the Swans game style more so than the keepings off kicking plan of the Hawks. This is going to be a very tight game decided by under 12 points either way (in my opinion). I will put my neck (and money!) on the line and say the Swans win the game by 9 points.

Betting summary to follow!

[Bic]

2012 AFL GRAND FINAL BETTING SUMMARY

Please take Note: I tend to put a little more on the line on Grand Final day, so if you are keeping track on a tight bankroll, please take whatever unit I play and half it.

2012 Home/Away Record: +22.675 Units @ 89(wins)-71(losses) = 55.63%

2012 Finals Record: +12.535 Units @ 6(wins)-3(losses) = 66.66%

I'm going to place some bets on the game line, under 24 margin, over/under, special markets and Norm Smith Medal.

________________________________________ ________________________________________ _________________


Sydney Swans +14.5 @1.925 x5

Sydney Swans WIN 1-24 margin @4.20 x2

Game Total UNDER 165.5 @1.91 x2.5


Norm Smith Medal

Josh P. Kennedy @8.75 x1
Ryan O'Keefe @17.00 x1
Adam Goodes @14.50 x0.5
Daniel Hannebery @31.36 x0.5
Jude Bolton @29.00 x0.5

Will edit this if I add any changes.

Best of luck to everyone! Any questions, please ask!

[Bic]

Adding:

J.McVeigh more possessions than S.Mitchell @2.25 x1.5

[Bic]

SWANNIES!!! Go you BLOODS!!!

[Bic]

Norm Smith Winner: R.Okeefe!!!!

Caps off a massive profitable year!!! Wooooo!!!

[Bic]

+22.025 Units!

2012 Finals Record: +34.56 Units @ 8(wins)-4(losses) = 66.66%

2012 Home/Away Record: +22.675 Units @ 89(wins)-71(losses) = 55.63%

Another great year! Will be back again next season