Hi Sportsfans,
I've looked high and low for a F1 thread, and not one could be found - so I thought I would start one mah-self. We're off to Albert Park this week for the season opener; which means we need to have a quick look at the futures market as well...
Futures
Unsurprisingly, the books are all over Seb Vettel to go back-to-back as champion; and with a genuine number 2 driver in Mark Webber by his side and Adrian Newey once again drawing up the plans for the RB8; its hard to go past him - even at -113. McLaren are a good show for the constructors at +175, but I think the smartest money of the year is most likely on Jenson Button at +700. The books are still convinced that Alonso can win the championship (even though the Ferrari will be a non feature for the first few races) as can Webber (proven slow starter off the grid leaving him in a difficult spot to pick up wins). Which leaves you with Vettel, Hamilton and Button - and I like Button's consistency over Hamilton's aggression and the lack of value in Vettel. I'm not a fan of having money tied up in season long holdings; but in this case value is telling me a small play is worth the wait.
My value futures play for 2012 - 1u on Jenson Button to win the championship at +700
Australia
Like the futures market; the books have brought Seb Vettel into +150 and is every man and his dog's tip to take the opening race of the year. And again; like the futures market - there is less value in the German than elsewhere, given that the books are setting these markets against the backdrop of pre-season testing that hasn't shown RBR to be streets ahead as they were last season. If anything, pre-season scuttlebut leads us towards the silver arrows of the McLaren team as a likely source of the win here. It is worth mentioning early on in the piece - there are only realistically five drivers who are going to win races this year - Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Button or Alonso. So we can break it down to these five when looking at the win. With the forecast showing a chance of clearing shower in Melbourne for the race, and the word on the street being that the gap between the Red Bulls and the McLarens reducing significantly over the season break - I'm going with the gent who has taken 2 of the last 3 races in Melbourne and is a champion in changeable conditions - Jenson Button.
For a bit of value on the side; I'm also going to back the biggest improver of pre-season testing - Kimi Raikkonen at +500, as well as Nico Rosberg in his Mercedes at +625 on a gut feeling to finish in the top 3 - and pray for rain.
3u Jenson Button +600 - Win
0.5u Raikkonen +500 - Place
0.5u Rosberg +625 - Place
Happy Racing!