1. #1
    stuckinlondon
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    stuckinlondons Fade Me Formula 1 2012 Thread

    Hi Sportsfans,
    I've looked high and low for a F1 thread, and not one could be found - so I thought I would start one mah-self. We're off to Albert Park this week for the season opener; which means we need to have a quick look at the futures market as well...

    Futures
    Unsurprisingly, the books are all over Seb Vettel to go back-to-back as champion; and with a genuine number 2 driver in Mark Webber by his side and Adrian Newey once again drawing up the plans for the RB8; its hard to go past him - even at -113. McLaren are a good show for the constructors at +175, but I think the smartest money of the year is most likely on Jenson Button at +700. The books are still convinced that Alonso can win the championship (even though the Ferrari will be a non feature for the first few races) as can Webber (proven slow starter off the grid leaving him in a difficult spot to pick up wins). Which leaves you with Vettel, Hamilton and Button - and I like Button's consistency over Hamilton's aggression and the lack of value in Vettel. I'm not a fan of having money tied up in season long holdings; but in this case value is telling me a small play is worth the wait.
    My value futures play for 2012 - 1u on Jenson Button to win the championship at +700

    Australia
    Like the futures market; the books have brought Seb Vettel into +150 and is every man and his dog's tip to take the opening race of the year. And again; like the futures market - there is less value in the German than elsewhere, given that the books are setting these markets against the backdrop of pre-season testing that hasn't shown RBR to be streets ahead as they were last season. If anything, pre-season scuttlebut leads us towards the silver arrows of the McLaren team as a likely source of the win here. It is worth mentioning early on in the piece - there are only realistically five drivers who are going to win races this year - Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Button or Alonso. So we can break it down to these five when looking at the win. With the forecast showing a chance of clearing shower in Melbourne for the race, and the word on the street being that the gap between the Red Bulls and the McLarens reducing significantly over the season break - I'm going with the gent who has taken 2 of the last 3 races in Melbourne and is a champion in changeable conditions - Jenson Button.

    For a bit of value on the side; I'm also going to back the biggest improver of pre-season testing - Kimi Raikkonen at +500, as well as Nico Rosberg in his Mercedes at +625 on a gut feeling to finish in the top 3 - and pray for rain.

    3u Jenson Button +600 - Win
    0.5u Raikkonen +500 - Place
    0.5u Rosberg +625 - Place


    Happy Racing!

  2. #2
    benrama
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    Like it mate, I'm a big F1 fan from way back, and made a killing last season betting on Vettel at >+100 - and sometimes at juice - every race. I made an exception when it was wet as anything can happen - and agreed that the wet suits Button who just seems to be able to find a way to win in those type of conditions. I think Button is a very good tactical driver and the wet somewhat neutralises the engineering advantage the RBR team has. Helped when you had Bet365 here in Aus to be able to live bet on a Button or Hamilton to finish 2nd and getting them at $3 type odds so that you could lock in a profit too.

    Webber at +700 was going to be my speculator for the first race given it's his home track, the damaged chassis had a big impact on him last year so hopefully no repeats this time around, but with the rain I can't back him. If the rain holds off though then I'll be on Vettel yet again at >+100 odds.

  3. #3
    stuckinlondon
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    Adding:

    0.5u Vettel Pole Position (foxing in P1/P2 comments about how happy he is with the car?)
    0.5u Hamilton Pole Position

    Not buying into the Merc F-Duct stuff. Yet.

  4. #4
    Optional
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    How awesome is this looking so far?!

    Best qualifying session I have seen in years. And Q3 is just starting!

  5. #5
    stuckinlondon
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    Quote Originally Posted by stuckinlondon View Post
    Adding:

    0.5u Vettel Pole Position (foxing in P1/P2 comments about how happy he is with the car?)
    0.5u Hamilton Pole Position

    Not buying into the Merc F-Duct stuff. Yet.
    Always good to start the year with a win!


  6. #6
    benrama
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    Awesome finish to qualifying I agree, looks already like this season could be one of the best ever if RBR and Mercedes are more evenly matched. Obviously the ruling on the legality of the Mercedes set-up could make things interesting.

    My bets for todays races:

    0.25X Vettel to win @ $9.15 (+815)
    0.5X Button to win @ $3.65 (+265)
    1X Schumaker over Rosberg @ $1.77 (-130)

    I'm going to miss Bet365's live betting for the race, their odds were all over the place during most races.

  7. #7
    stuckinlondon
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    Picked the winner in qualy and the winner in the race - could not have asked for anything more.

    Qualifying : 1-1 +2.75u
    Race: 1-2 +20u
    Overall: 2-3 +22.75u

    Even better knowing that I have not seen a single bit of qualy or the race as I was moving house. I did learn though that the Mercedes will probably be big in Malaysia with straight line speed, and RBR wont back up two qualifying performances so poorly. Will be back with analysis later in the week but for now - just enjoying that Australia should bankroll the next few races at least!


  8. #8
    DoctorD
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    nice winner...

  9. #9
    stuckinlondon
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    The early 80s saw the formation of a horrendous band that would end up churning out a hit for a sappy British movie with Hugh Grant in it - and the name of that band will be repeatedly ad nauseum this week in Malaysia - Wet, Wet, Wet.

    Malaysia
    In all of Bernie's wisdom we now head to hold a grand prix in a nation at the height of its monsoon season, which has traditionally given us either a stinking hot dry race or a torrential downpour. All of the information we've received thus far leans towards the latter rather than the former.

    So where does that leave us for this week's picks? Well, rain has that habit of making it a bit of lucky dip, levelling out the playing field. Add to that the idea that McLaren for instance did not run much in rain over the testing period, and we can add the 'early season' inconsistency to the mix - it only makes things harder.

    There are some constants however, regardless of conditions. McLaren and Red Bull will be up the front, as they were in Australia. Someone will bolt from the middle of the pack to split these two most likely - in Australia it was the Renault of Romain Grosjean. We also know that the McLaren and Mercedes have great qualifying pace but are not as dominant in race trim, while the Red Bulls are the opposite.

    I'm going to be a bit more conservative this race than the last, mainly owing to the rain and what that can do to the field. I think that there is a better chance than not that the race will start under yellow flag conditions, meaning that there is value in the pole sitter leading after the first lap (assuming that your bookie, like mine, pays out even under yellow). I'm going to put a speculator on Michael Schumacher to pinch pole in the wet in a Mercedes that was significantly faster than anything else last week in a straight line. For the race, I like the value that Seb Vettel now represents given that the books have reacted to last weeks race. Vettel covers both a wet and dry race, and I like him to put it near the front in qualifying before proving what a racer he is in the race and pinching the win. No massive calls this week though given the rain, as anything could happen.

    1u Sebastian Vettel - Win
    1u Pole Sitter Leading After First Lap
    0.5u Michael Schumacher - Pole
    Happy Racing!

  10. #10
    Optional
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    GL

    I'm looking for the Renaults to like Sepang, if it's dry.

  11. #11
    stuckinlondon
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    Thats a pretty big if Opti, but I like the thought of 0.5u on Raikonnen to stick it on the podium. Not a lot of faith in Grosjean at the moment, I think he gets near the front and would get bullied out of the way. Not going to happen to Kimi though.

  12. #12
    stuckinlondon
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    I'll also have a good, hard look at weather forecast and then at Hamilton for the win; if the McLarens are as fast as they sound like they have been - he wont get beat by Button two races in a row with a smile on his face. He'll be back to chucking that thing up the inside at any opportunity; Felipe Massa or not.

  13. #13
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by stuckinlondon View Post
    Thats a pretty big if Opti, but I like the thought of 0.5u on Raikonnen to stick it on the podium. Not a lot of faith in Grosjean at the moment, I think he gets near the front and would get bullied out of the way. Not going to happen to Kimi though.
    Took .25u each on Kimi for Win/Pole/Fast Lap

    28/1 15/1 20/1 was just too high to not take a little I thought. If he practices well, and weather looks ok at time, might go a bit harder on a podium bet as you suggest.

    Hamilton still worries me. He said himself his performance last year was hurt by the head space he was in. Being battered by Button, and passed by Vettel, last week could do anything to his mind.

  14. #14
    stuckinlondon
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    Kimi Raikkonen looks set to receive a five-place grid penalty after Lotus revealed his gearbox would be changed. The team announced on their Twitter page: A bit more work for Kimi's crew this evening. An issue with Kimi's gearbox so we're changing it now."

    Grrrr.

    Going to wait until later tonight (London time) to really put some numbers down - Webber for pole at 19/1 looks ridiculous at the moment as everyone jumps on Hamilton (I've seen Webber as high as 34/1 at Betfair). The more and more I look at it, the more I think the books are overvaluing Hamilton due to his P1/P2 performance, leaving it ripe to hedge with Button, Vettel and Webber with a small piece of Schumi just because of the grid penalty for Kimi. More to follow.

  15. #15
    Optional
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    ^^^ Oh geez. Thanks for the great news.

  16. #16
    stuckinlondon
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    Well, my ABH strategy (Anyone But Hamilton) didn't go to plan, even if after Q1 and Q2 it looked comfy.

    I'm still backing Vettel and his tyre strategy to move through the field. The Mercs are tough on their tires, meaning Vettels long first run will put him right in. Add that Hamo flat spotted his front left during Q3 - it's gonna be a cracker.

  17. #17
    benrama
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    Rain as usual is the unknown factor in this race, it's been mostly raining later in the evening in Malaysia so hopefully the race remains dry for most of it, but I think we have to assume some key decisions on pit stops and tyres to be made during the race. I think Button and Vettel are by far the best strategic drivers for these conditions - and perhaps Schumaker of old.

    My plays for the race are:

    1.5X Hamilton win - NO @ $1.69
    0.5X Button win @ +199
    0.25X Vettel win @ +691
    0.1X Schumaker win @ +1661

  18. #18
    stuckinlondon
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    I wonder how Bernie feels every time this monsoon hits in the middle of a Malay race. Probably just goes and counts some more money. Hamo looking good though.

  19. #19
    stuckinlondon
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    What. A. Crazy. Race! It seems every season throws up one of these nutty races (think Monza with Vettel in the STR or the Hulks Brazilian pole) where the world seems unaligned and those that shouldnt are in contention and those who are supposedly quick struggle to run down Force Indias. Perez was unbelievable and I think just booked himself a Ferrari seat if not mid year, definitely next year.

    My picks from earlier in the week were less successful than I had hoped, as Seb Vettel had a wretched race really managing to get in a tangle with Karthikeyan that he should never have been near to begin with. The RB8 pace should be worrying Christian Horner now, as it is slow in a straight line and doesn't seem to have anywhere near the cornering dominance it used to. In their favour are the seeming lack of race pace for the McLarens which must be driving their fans bonkers.

    So Seb for the win and Schumi for pole fell flat; but I did get Lewis leading after the first lap which was some consolation. I managed to save my weekend with some in-play action at Bet365, following Opti's great tip on Kimi to post fastest lap (put in mid-race at 17/1) and I took advantage of the completely baffling odds given to Alonso with five laps to go. Of course Perez was closing, however closing on a driver of the class of Alonso and passing him are two things altogether different - so the 3.75 Bet365 was offering WHILE ALONSO WAS LEADING was ludicrous. So, naturally I backed Alonso heavily and came out of the weekend ahead.

    So now we have a couple of weeks grace before heading to Shanghai. I'll be keeping an eye on the odds for Lewis, hoping that the Alonso win and his third placing will even things out with the books and create some good value picks.

    Qualifying : 1-2 +2.25u
    Race: 2-3 +20.5u
    Overall: 3-5 +22.75u

  20. #20
    stuckinlondon
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    So with the three week break between races done and dusted it is time to get back into the saddle and get our F1 on. I’m mystified as to why we take a three week break between two geographically proximate to each other – but remote from Europe – locations, but what would I know. All I really know is that Shanghai is where we are off to, where a repeat of Malaysia is highly unlikely...

    China
    As soon as word of Mercedes W-Duct got out, this was a race that I had my money honed in on. With a back straight that stretches from Shanghai to Ulaan Bataar, in some ways China is just made for the straight line, one-lap speed of the Mercedes, and I expect to see MSC and the lesser Rosberg do well in qualy even if they haven’t solved their race pace issues with tyres as yet.

    The books have gone colder than ice on Red Bull Racing; and mystifyingly on Webber particularly over Vettel – even though by all reports the Aussie is handling the new regulations and RB8 significantly better than his German counterpart.

    The books are all across the McLarens of Button and Hamilton; and even have Hamilton as second favourite despite his 5-grid penalty that will come about as a result of a gearbox change. Other head scratching odds include Alonso being the same odds for the win as Webber despite driving what amounts to a red go-kart at the moment that Felipe Massa has competing against the two Williams.

    Which leads to my picks for the weekend. Before P1 I got on to Schumi to finish pole for 0.5u, simply because the odds were at +1600 and this number just seemed ridiculous. I am hoping that I avoid bias with my fanboy love of Mark Webber – but I think +162 for him to top Vettel in qualifying is too good to pass up; and finally +200 for the win – Button should get the job done.

    1u Jenson Button - Win
    1u Webber to beat Vettel in Qualifying
    0.5u Michael Schumacher - Pole
    Happy Racing!

  21. #21
    shari91
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    Awesome write-up stucky! I was going to start a thread for this wknd to get some feedback but hopefully everyone will just jump in this one instead. I do like Button to win and have booked that one a few minutes ago. And I'm with you with the Webber bias so I'm never that confident when I'm betting on him. I'm going to debate that one for a bit and try to look for a few others - definitely need something in qualifying. Best of luck this wknd!

  22. #22
    MatI
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    Gl stuckinlondon, hopefully we get a Schuey pole, but those McLaren's look bloody fast. They looked very impressive in P3.

  23. #23
    stuckinlondon
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    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    Awesome write-up stucky! I was going to start a thread for this wknd to get some feedback but hopefully everyone will just jump in this one instead. I do like Button to win and have booked that one a few minutes ago. And I'm with you with the Webber bias so I'm never that confident when I'm betting on him. I'm going to debate that one for a bit and try to look for a few others - definitely need something in qualifying. Best of luck this wknd!
    Thanks Shari - I figured I owed you for all of the cash you've made for me on Tennis in the least - hope I can provide some good picks!

  24. #24
    stuckinlondon
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    With qualy done and dusted; its worth having a look at the change in market off the back of the 2nd best Rosberg in the history of F1 putting his Merc on pole. Here are a few things that I am keeping in mind when putting my bets on for Shanghai:

    • Despite what Ross Brawn has said, I'm still not sure that the Mercs will have the race pace required and will be easier on tires. The clean air of the front row will help, as will DRS if anyone gets by them; however the first two races have seen Rosberg and MSC go backwards fast - being on the front row might reduce this but wont likely eliminate it.
    • I can't get the vision of Sergio Perez hunting down Fernando Alonso and pulling away from the field in Malaysia. That Sauber has something going for it - even if Kamikaze Kobayashi may be a bit nervous at the front of the pack. The Saubers are also conservative as a team - dont be surprised to hear team radio telling Kamui to take it easy and get the points rather than push for position.
    • This race will be won by one of 2nd Best Rosberg, Schumi, the Ice(Cream)Man, JB, Webby or the Crash Kid Hamo. I know I just listed six drivers, however this means you can eliminate 18 other drivers

    Here are the odds I have and thoughts on them:

    (Odds are based on Bet365 numbers)
    Win Podium
    Nico Rosberg 4.5 2.1
    Michael Schumacher 6 2.37
    Kamui Kobayashi 15 3.5
    Kimi Räikkönen 9 2.87
    Jenson Button 5 1.83
    Mark Webber 19 4.5
    Lewis Hamilton 4.5 1.72
    Sergio Perez 34 7
    Fernando Alonso 26 6
    Romain Grosjean 101 13
    Sebastian Vettel 21 6


    There are a few numbers here that stand out to me that I will pop a little wager on - and you will likely see a common theme - that being - how the &$%* can Lewis be the shortest odds for the podium and equal favourite when he is starting from P7?! It's a long race - but I've never seen anything like it.

    Raikkonen Podium - He needs to beat one driver in a car that has, in race pace terms, has been one of the quickest one lap cars, and you get 2.87? Ok - I would rather take Kimi at 2.87 from P4 than Lewis from P7. So I'll have 0.25u on that one.

    Webber Podium - 4.50, and here is the thing - no-one; no-one, was faster on the harder prime tire than the Canberra Milk Kid. MW was the fastest on it in Q1, and in Q2, so I can see Webber picking up a P2 or P3 with his better race pace, easier on tires and pacey on primes RB8. 0.25u on Webby to have a national flag behind him after the race.

    Happy Racing!

  25. #25
    Optional
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    Good luck Stuckin.

    I hope you are right with Webber, I took him for a podium early, but love Kimi for podium now.

    I want a McLaren win with Webber and Kimi on the lower steps if I can everything.

  26. #26
    stuckinlondon
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    Well; disappointing weekend from a picks perspective - as both Lewis (by coming through the field) and Nico (by staying firmly at the front of said field) firmly proved me wrong. Hard to be disappointed though to see Nico break through - he has always been one of those drivers that you know has the talent to win a race, but just needed to machinery to do it.

    So we move off to the Arab Uprising GP next; will be back later in the week with the 1001 reasons why Felipe Massa won't continue his run of fortune in Bahrain. As a teaser - reason 1 is - he is driving a rubbish car.

    Qualifying : 2-3 +4.71u
    Race: 2-6 +19u
    Overall: 3-5 +23.71u

  27. #27
    stuckinlondon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Good luck Stuckin.

    I hope you are right with Webber, I took him for a podium early, but love Kimi for podium now.

    I want a McLaren win with Webber and Kimi on the lower steps if I can everything.
    And you were *right there* until Kimi's tires 'fell off a cliff' - and he dropped faster than if he had have simply pointed the car in the opposite direction and accelerated.

    Tough break Opti.

  28. #28
    Optional
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    Agree it is hard to begrudge Nico a win, in such good style.

    Biggest kick in the shins for me was Kimi not coming in for tyres when he fell off the cliff with 8 laps to go.

    I was rubbing my hands together and about to count winnings from my biggest paying bet, on him for fast lap, when i saw it.

    What on earth possessed Lotus to give up a points position to do that?!

  29. #29
    stuckinlondon
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    Apparently Kimi didn't have any tires to change into; which would explain why Lotus let him drop 50 seconds in a few laps. I was gutted, because I really thought this race would be a turning point for Lotus and would see Kimi stick it on the podium; but it seems they will just rethink their strategy in qualifying a little more I suspect.

    Odds are out for the Arab Uprising GP - JB and Hamo favourites at 3.25, Rosberg and Vettel at 9, Schumi at 11, Alonso 19 and Raikkonen a mildly tempting 23 (21 for pole). Plenty to ponder during the week - I suspect that the books have it right on this one - McLaren will surely get their act together sooner rather than later, so I will likely go heavy on the McLaren lads with a speculator on the Ice Cream Man.

  30. #30
    Optional
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    Sounds like we will be going the same way.

    Will take Kimi for fastest lap again. Will likely take him every race, with his history of going for it so strong. Would be lovely if I can get that anywhere close to 20!

  31. #31
    MatI
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    It was amazing how quickly Kimi lost positions, but once your tyres go away there isn't anything you can do, and with that massive train of cars he was just a sitting duck. I think he lost 10 positions in one lap!

    The Lotus seems to do better in warmer conditions so Bahrain could be better for them. I do think Hammy pole @ 2.50 is might tempting. Bahrain is less about top speed & more about getting into and out of the corners as fast as possible. And so Mercedes should fall back to the pack...

  32. #32
    stuckinlondon
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    Bahrain
    Soooo...Al Bahrayn. Well, we've already seen our fair share of controversy in Bah-town, with the Force India team acting not unlike myself when I was a young, trouble-making lad - and my mother insisted that I was home before dark. Fair's fair though - my neighbourhood didn't have molotov wielding revolutionaries. Just soda stealing youths.

    The controversy will likely have exactly zero effect on the race, such is the professionalism that these drivers and teams display. And regardless, no matter how many human rights violations and rioting is ongoing - it would take a fair effort to dislodge Brazil as the most dangerous race for drivers - you could almost say they were accustomed.

    Rosberg's maiden win in China has kicked off a wave of comment from all corners regarding expectation in Bahrain. Renault have said not to expect a podium any time soon, Lewis has said to expect the Mercs to be in front during qualifying, Seb Vettel has said to expect the RBRs to improve but not win and Nico has said not to expect anything. A lot of it of course is foxing (Lewis...), but there is likely truth in drowning down expectations also (Renault). The track temps in Bahrain are expected to hurt the Mercs, as the idea persists that the car is hard on its tires. Until either 2nd best Rosberg or MSC can run the thing well in the heat, that idea will likely continue.

    This week I'm finally off the Kimi-train, just to give the guy a break. I'm willing to risk a stellar performance on his part - but on this occasion I believe the Renault twitter feed. I think that McLaren take a step forward this weekend, and I'm looking to Lewis to do the business. I'm glad to see that Nico's P2 speed has seen him replace Lewis as the favourite for qualifying at my bookies - which I will happily take advantage of, as I still think as far as pure, one lap speed goes - Lewis is the best there is, and he is in one of the fastest cars - without a gearbox penalty this week.

    In the race, I have a couple of wagers on at the moment - mainly for value purposes. Lewis at 2.87 for the win looks good to me, because I just can't really see anyone else doing it. I hate the phrase 'so and so is due', but Lewis is too good not to get a win this many races in a row in that car. Nico looked good out in front with no pressure - I wonder how he would go with a pair of McLarens on his arse.

    I also have a couple of podium thoughts, because I think the odds are out of whack for the likely performance. I want to believe that the Mercs can run in the heat, but I can't go past MSC running better than Nico for 2 of the first 3 races this year, just not the one that counted. I can see Michael being up there this week, and the odds (Nico @ 2.20 vs MSC @ 3.50) seem out of whack when you look at this seasons results. Likewise, Seb Vettel is at 2.50 for a podium, while my perennial dumb bet, Mark Webber (4.00) seems overs *again* - as he has finished fourth three times out of three this year. I'm happy to ride it out with Webby; even at 0.25 units.

    So there you have it - the Renaults will likely struggle, the McLarens and Mercs will fight it out with RBR not far behind. And Ferrari will wonder what is going wrong with their season again.

    1u @ 2.87 Lewis Hamilton - Win
    1u @ 2.75 Lewis Hamilton - Pole
    0.5u @ 3.50 Michael Schumacher - Podium
    0.25u @ 4 Mark Webber - Podium
    Happy Racing!

  33. #33
    Optional
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    Good luck Stuckin!

    I'm waiting until P3 is done before making any more decisions. Still very hard to tell who is where amongst the fast 3 teams right now I think.

  34. #34
    stuckinlondon
    stuckinlondon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-17-12
    Posts: 60
    Betpoints: 317

    Interesting - there has been a bit of talk about the RB8 struggling in dirty air - lets see what Vettel can do...

  35. #35
    cutchemist42
    cutchemist42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-08-12
    Posts: 737
    Betpoints: 5801

    I'm on Webber at 8.0. I've been liking Webber's race pace over Vettel's so far.

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