Hi All,

I'm new to SBR and will be posting my AFL plays for 2012 in this thread. Had some ups and downs so far but here are my plays for this weekend.

I don't like either of the games tonight. Earlier in the weak I was leaning the Adelaide Crows when they were $2.07 underdogs, however since then they have came into $1.70 favourites and the coach has openly admitted that no matter what the score they will follow their game plan. This means possibly resting their top players late in the game even if they are losing, so while I have a lean to the crows who will step it up at home, I won't be playing it.
Saturday I see some value in a number of games and the first one is Fremantle v Port Adelaide. Fremantle are taking a strong side to the game being played in Victor Harbour, SA only missing big Sandilands, Michael Barlow, David Mundy and Hayden Ballentyne. They are still taking a reasonable midfield including fyfe, hill, pavlich and the young zac clarke to ruck who impressed last year. Port Adelaide have had a reasonable NAB Cup and have majority of their first 22 making the trip down, but I still see their best squad as a poor AFL level team. I can't see them stacking up against Fremantle and will be taking freo at the line -10.5.

The next game I will be playing is the Gold Cost Suns v Greater Western Sydney. The game is being played in Albury which I don't see favouring either team. Gold Coast coach Guy McKenna was vocal in how impressed he was with his team vs Geelong last weekend stating they were only down by 15 points in the 3rd quarter. Sorry Guy but footy is a 4 quarter game and you lost by 50+ vs basically Geelong's B grade side. Nathan Bock did play well again up forward for GC however this week I can see Chad Cornes standing him from GWS who is an experienced backman and may lock Bock down a bit more. GWS have shown some promise and while they might struggle to run out the full 4 quarters I think they are still worth a play vs a Gold Coast side without Gary Ablett.

The final game I will be playing is Hawthorn v Melbourne. Hawthorn have been playing exceptionally well and are the talk of the town for this years premiership season. They are looking fit, well skilled and drilled to take their team once again to the last weekend in September. As they have all NAB Cup they are again playing a solid team with buddy franklin back in, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Luke Hodge, Cyril Rioli and a number of highly skilled and fit young guys who showed something last year. Melbourne did well last weekend vs Collingwood however I suspect collingwood are playing at about 60-70% at the moment. I can see Hawthorn playing excellent 4 quarters of football and blowing Melbourne off the park at Etihad.

Plays:
Fremantle -10.5 vs Port Adelaide - 0.5 Units
GWS +23.5 vs Gold Coast - 0.5 Units
Hawthorn -21.5 vs Melbourne - 1.0 unit

Best of luck to all.