[benrama]

Time for a fresh thread for 2012, footy season is still a way away (but counting down those days I tell you - American sports just doesn't do it for me), but in the meantime I've been doing OK with a-league and cricket.

All plays will be between 1 to 3 units, corresponding to about 2-6% of bankroll.

Normally the 1st play of a new thread is a 100% lock to lose so we'll see how this one goes.

T20 Cricket, 10 Jan
1X Adelaide Strikers @ $1.79

Sixers on their home ground with Dan Harris in form, Klinger and Borgas also having a good big bash. Muirhead and Richardson have been decent bowlers. Sydney sixers have lost Bravo, and Lumb hasn't shown much thus far.

For those with live betting you might want to wait till after the toss because the team that wins the toss has a huge advantage in T20, and books don't aren't adjusting opening lines to reflect this accurately IMO.

[benrama]

T20 Cricket, 10 Jan
1X Adelaide Strikers @ $1.79


Bloody curse of the new thread - don't think I've ever won a first play, don't know why I bother starting them. Strikers did well in the field and bowling-wise, but shot selection was horrible, decided to have their worst batting performance of the series.

Phenomenal how many of the teams batting first are winning the games at the moment - I think this makes it the last 8 in a row. That's probably the most solid betting strategy right now - jump on the team that wins the toss in live betting.

Onto tomorrow, the Thunder who have been very disappointing so far (I've watched 3 of their games - they are entirely dependent on Gayle), but they are in a must win situation against Perth Scorchers and $2.20 odds at home. Scorchers have by far more depth in batting, so I think they are the play but will be researching more ...

[brettels]

good luck ben! the next 38 days will be longer than the last few months!

[benrama]

Thanks Brettels, and tell me about it! I have been enjoying the cricket and - surprisingly - the A-league as well., but not the same.

Looks like another long season as a St Kilda supporter, disappointed they haven't looked at more player changes. I think I have a better chance with my "second team" the Swannies, and the Knights in the NRL. Will watch a bit of the 'Tahs as well, just to make sure I'm spreading the love

Good luck for you in 2012 as well!

[MatI]

GL this year Ben.

I'm liking Scorchers to WIN tonight. you?

[benrama]

Mat - was just about to come here and lock in the Scorchers. Thunder are a one trick wonder with Gayle (with Warner out) if he doesn't fire and fire big their chances plummet. Scorchers have North, Marsh, and of course Gibbs all who have been in good form, and Hogg, Edmondson and Rimmington with good form with the ball. Edwards is out for the Thunder as well tonight.

If Gayle gets 70+ then the Thunder can win, if not I like the Scorchers chances.

1X Perth Scorchers @ $1.78

[MatI]

Good stuff Ben. My thoughts too.

Odds have just gone to PK though!

EDIT - just worked out it's because Thunder won the toss. Team batting 1st have won the last 8 matches. I don't think it will matter in this case.

[hawley]

Nice thread, looking forward to following and contributing where possible

Best of luck

[MatI]

1X Perth Scorchers @ $1.78

Too easy that one.

[benrama]

Mat - good to see us both cash, if only there were all this easy! As soon as Gayle went early I knew this bet was looking good. Glad I watched the Thunder early on - they've been solid fade material last few games. Scorchers have an impressive team and wouldn't be surprised to see them with the big bash, Hogg is bowling like the glory years too.

Hawley - always welcome to have your insight mate, I may even post a few NBL picks in here to fade as well ;-)

I'm going to keep my record updated but instead of units this time will post in $ terms with 1 unit = $100.

Current record
W/L: 1-1
Profit/loss: -$22

Won't be touching the next two big bash games as it involves the three rubbish teams in the comp: Renegades, Heat and Thunder. Likely to have a play on the A-league on Friday, leaning towards Central Coast vs Jets over 2.5 and Victory to win at home.

[benrama]

Missed the start of the Jets/CCM game, but the over looks like it was the play there.

One play for the other A-league game tonight.

0.5X Brisbane -1 @ $2.01
0.5X Brisbane/Sydney over 2.5 goals @ $1.77
Brisbane finally get close to their full strength side back tonight, including Henrique, and I see this as a statement game for them at home, with also revenge for their 2-0 loss to Sydney that broke their 36 game streak. Sydney have conceded 9 goals the last 3 weeks, and I don't see how they keep an attacking Roar team out tonight. I expect Sydney will be forced to attack here as they are at the point of being desperate for some wins if they are going to make the finals. I see this as a Roar 3-0 or 2-1 type of game, so I'll spread one unit on both the Roar -1 and over 2.5 goals so that if either of these scorelines occur we have a profitable night.

[benrama]

Crazy end to that game! How the Roar didn't score at least 2 or 3 before extra time is beyond me - 2-1 is probably the fair score in the end.

Push on the handicap and win on the total for a positive night, will take that.

[Duff85]

Just checking in so its in my posts. Interesting thread so far will be following along.

[benrama]

G'day Duff, hope hope this thread helps us both in 2012.

A small play for tonight:

0.5X Gold Coast / Wellington draw @ $3.49

Gold Coast have become a defense oriented team, and I'll take the odds that this ends up 0-0 or 1-1.

[benrama]

Robbed! 0-0 till extra time and then a goal by Wellington 3 minutes from time. Take that any time.

Onto next week ...

[benrama]

Current record
W/P/L: 2-1-2
Profit/Loss: -$33

Liking Hobart this afternoon - more talent and they have something to play for (home ground in semis) while Renegades season is over. Hurricanes will want to get back on track after two sloppy losses, with a big home crowd I think they give this 100%.

1.5X Hobart @ $1.82

Depending on the outcome of this game I may have a play on the scorchers vs sixers game as well.

[hawley]

tailed you for half a buck on hobart

guess Afridi had them as well

[benrama]

Half a buck - that's some optimism! thank you afridi I owe you a beer!

Wasn't looking good at 0 for 120 when Renegades batted but good comeback by Hobart, better team won but just goes to show there's small margins in the T20.

[benrama]

Current record
W/P/L: 3-1-2
Profit/Loss: $90

Two thrillers in the T20 last night, could only watch highlights but loving the addition to the sports - and betting - calendar of this comp.

I don't like betting <$1.91 very often but unfortunately you can bet a handicap on cricket on most books - so I'm taking another favourite tonight in the Stars. Simple equation for them tonight - win on their home ground and make the semis - if not competition over.

With Wright hitting one of the best T20 innings you'll see last match Stars now have a formidable, in-form batting trio in Hussey, Wright and Quiney. Warne and Faulkner have been solid bowlers too. Strikers have been shown up the last 2 games, and none of their players stands out as being a weapon.

I think the line on this will go to more like $1.65 by the time the game starts so getting in now.

1X Stars @ $1.76

[hawley]

Half a buck - that's some optimism! thank you afridi I owe you a beer!

Wasn't looking good at 0 for 120 when Renegades batted but good comeback by Hobart, better team won but just goes to show there's small margins in the T20.

half a buck threw half a unit on it then rolled it onto the Sydney team that played after based on the team to bat first wins more often than not angle..

Thought that game was in the bag until some punter gave up about 13 runs in 2 balls with no balls and stuff then Brett Lee almost blew it.

Safe to say I was on the right side for both games. May tail on the Stars tonight.

[benrama]

Yep - team batting first angle has been golden, can almost blind bet it, books are now adjusting for it however. Stars line is now near $1.65 so I don't think theres value any more - if they win the toss I might even bet the other way and lock in a small profit. Bol!

[MatI]

Jumped on the Stars earlier as well. Let's get it fellas.

[benrama]

Woot! Cash that, that gives us a 100% record when both on the same game Mat

Stars were way too good tonight, only caught the last hour or so (how out of form is White btw) and it was never really too much of a sweat.

Current record
W/P/L: 4-1-2
Profit/Loss: $166

Should be two great semis - definitely liking the Hurricanes, and will likely just wait to see who wins the toss in the Stars vs Scorchers game (if I play it all).

[MatI]

nice job mate.

[benrama]

Small play on the Jets tonight, I've watched 3 or 4 of their games, including against the Mariners last weekend and they are a different team at home - 16 of their 18 points have come from home games; in contrast the Phoenix have only won once away from home all season.

Wellington won the previous two games on their home turf so I expect revenge to come into play here, Jets are also talking about contract extensions for Griffiths so I expect him to be on his game.

0.5X Jets @ $2.22

[benrama]

No banana tonight, looks like Jets had more chances on goals but couldn't come up with the goods.

Current record
W/P/L: 4-1-3
Profit/Loss: $116

Back at it tomorrow.

[benrama]

As expected team that won the toss yesterday - Scorchers - won the game easily. Didn't post the play in here so won't count towards record.

I have to roll with the Hurricanes tonight to get the W at home. My thoughts on both teams are elsewhere in this thread, but in Birt and Shah the Hurricanes have two true superstars at this form of the game. Hurricanes have shown they are a good chasing team so winning the toss is not as important in this game, so I'm going to lock in my play now.

1X Hurricanes @ $1.78

In the A-league I'm playing the under 2.5 goals for Sydney FC and Gold Coast; both sides have worked hard on their defense and last time they met at Skilled park it ended 0-0. Nothing much has changed since then to suggest this game will be much different than a defensive battle - GC are also missing striker Macallister for this one. Both sides are desperate for a win, so I can see either side scoring and then buckling down to hold on. Only playing for 0.5X a unit, as A-league has been unpredictable of late.

0.5X Sydney FC / GC U2.5 goals @ $1.93

[benrama]

0-0 at halftime in the Sydney/GC game with few shots on goal, but 3 goals in the 2nd half did the total in. Disappointed in Hobart's chase but when you lose your best two batsmen for cheap hard to win the game.


Current record
W/P/L: 4-1-5
Profit/Loss: -$34

Going to choose very selectively on A-league from here on in till footy starts.

[benrama]

A 1.5X play tonight in the A-league on GC vs CC. Forecast is for rain tonight with two sides that drew 0-0 just before the new year. CC have the best defense in the league, and GC are fighting way above their weight in 5th. I see a 1-0 win for CC here, but think the under is the best play.

1.5X Gold Coast / Central Coast U2.5 goals @ $1.88

[benrama]

1.5X Gold Coast / Central Coast U2.5 goals @ $1.88 - CANCELLED

Well I was certainly right about the bad weather

Depending on the reschedule I may be on the same play, but will wait to see how things develop.

As for the Big bash final, I think the only play tonight is to stick with probably the best strategy of these T20's and play on whoever wins the coin toss - Sixers have really finished the season strong, and they have every chance of beating Perth if they bat first and get a 150+ total on the board.

[benrama]

0.5X Adelaide @ $2.42

No time for detailed write up, i liked what I saw last week - Adelaide created far more chances against the in form Glory, just couldn't finish. They will play with desperation today at home and I like their chances to get a win here.

[benrama]

Footy is back! Posting from phone so no time for write-ups:

0.5X St George -2 @ $1.83
0.5X Jets/Glory over 2.5 goals @$1.90

[kingsr]

Ben, dont feel compelled to do write ups. Whilst we appreciate analasys and opinion, we know who we can trust and tail. Results speak for themselves.

Good luck bro

[benrama]

Thanks bro, yea going to do more of just posting plays this year. Adding one more:

0.5X GWS +35.5 @ $1.98

Good first showing by GWS and if they can keep it close against Bulldogs like their chances against Pies on their second game and severely depleted

[kingsr]

Nice hit Benny. I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion on the games during the season. I may even challenge your picks occasionally