[rob_nuts]

Is anybody going to be betting on the Brownlow on Monday night?

I had a great year last year, mainly betting most vote winners from each team, but not many sites are offering that option this year. There are a few good bets that I have found that I think are good value.

Boyd $1.78 v Ablett $2. Boyd is great value here, although Albett had a massive year at the Suns traditionally it is very difficult for players on losing teams to poll consistently, and Boyd is definitely going to poll in a lot of the Dogs games this year.

Scott Pendlebury to get most votes from Collingwood is $1.40, not paying a lot but he should do enough to out-poll Swan this year, he was only 3 votes behind him last year and has had a much better year this year as well as the fact Swan missed a few games in the middle of the year.

Dean Cox @ $2.50 is interesting, going on his form this year most people think he would be a roughie for a Top 5 finish or higher, although looking at previous years when West Coast were one of the top 2 or 3 teams, and Cox was in career best form he never polled more than 5 points. I think this year he would be hard to not give votes to, even though the umpires clearly prefer midfielders I really think he has had a great year and will just outpoll Priddis, with Kerr and Embley taking some votes off him.


Swan/Penlebury $2.00 vs. Judd/Murphy $1.80, bit of a risk taking on the favourite and Murphy who had a great year, but looking a bit closer, Pendles has had his career best year, Swan will poll in 8+ games in the last half of the year and the Pies only lost 2 games the entire year, meaning that their best players will poll nearly every game. I really like the look of this bet.

(These prices are on SportingBet)

[rob_nuts]

I know Sportsbet.com.au are allowing Multi's for most votes per team, but only a max of 5 legs and their odds are really short, doesn't really seem worth it

[Optional]

Nice run down Rob.

Have you had a look at any of the group bets on Betfair?

How do you feel about Boyd $3.10 v Sam Mitchell?

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?m...x=2&origin=MRL

[donkson]

The value is gone now, books really clamped down on the prices quickly and the prices were all corrected after rd 22. Unlike last year where there were still good bets available leading up to Brownlow night.

You've really got to treat it as a futures market now and find the value midyear.

[kingsr]

Got Goodes at 25-1 a few weeks ago

[rob_nuts]

Nice run down Rob.

Have you had a look at any of the group bets on Betfair?

How do you feel about Boyd $3.10 v Sam Mitchell?

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?m...x=2&origin=MRL

I think Mitchell will probably have him covered, but I always wonder if the fact that a player can't win because of suspension influences the umpires votes in any way? From Round 11 on Mitchell should get a lot of votes, not sure if Boyd will stick with him

[rob_nuts]

Just noticed on Betfair also Priddis $1.61 v Dale Thomas, really like this bet, I can't see Thomas getting more than 2 BOG at the most in that midfield, Priddis will most likely poll at least 15 votes, really good value to back Priddis here

[hedgejob]

The fave rarely wins this medal. Best bet is Judd not to win it.

[Lookingtostart]

Yeah, I like Judd not to win, but I can't remember all his games. In fact, most of the games I watched of his, he didn't do anything special, so I missed all his good games?

Can anyone give me a reason not to bet against him?

[kingsr]

Which books offer that option?

[Lookingtostart]

Which books offer that option?

Pinnacle,

Will C. Judd Win Brownlow Medal?
03:00 AM
2000 Yes 1.862 2001 No 1.990

[kingsr]

Pinnacle,

Will C. Judd Win Brownlow Medal?
03:00 AM
2000 Yes 1.862 2001 No 1.990

Thanks bro, spewin I dont have a pinny account!

[Lookingtostart]

You should get one, they give the best value and it's easy to validate.
Judd at practically $2 not to win, that's awesome...I think.

[Lookingtostart]

I also like the Port's:
Pinnacle:
Most Team Votes - Port Adelaide (All In)03:00 AM
3021 T. Boak 2.500
3022 J. Westhoff 3.500 3023 R. Gray 4.250
3024 Any Other Port Adelaide Player 5.500

Interesting market.

Centrebet:
Port Adelaide Most Votes 2011 - Most Brownlow Votes - Port Adelaide
BOAK, T (PTA) 1.95 WESTHOFF, J (PTA) 3.00
GRAY, R (PTA) 4.25 HARTLETT, H (PTA) 15.00
RODAN, D (PTA) 21.00
CASSISI, D (PTA) 23.00
CORNES, K (PTA) 23.00 BROGAN, D (PTA) 26.00 CHAPLIN, T (PTA) 61.00 THOMAS, M (PTA) 61.00


Chaplin is awesome value, had to do most of the work for port because of stupid coaching/gameplan. Boak is most likely to win it, but Port players won't be getting too many votes so this may be good for long odds.

But check out the one from Pinnacle, Boak @$2.50 and Any Other Port Adelaide Player @$5.500!!!!
I'm having a serious think about picking both.Maybe have to find another bookie that gives any other.

[kingsr]

I like the freedom of withdrawing whenever i want with no fees. With the aus books i use, money is in my bank acc 24 hours later.

Does pinnacle offer that type of service?

Love that Boak and any other player, why cant you back them both with pinny?

[hawley]

Thanks bro, spewin I dont have a pinny account!

Get one bro, well worth it!! esp if you play any american sports - best lines by some margin.


You get one free withdrawl a month to neteller, although getting your funds from there is pretty annoying.

I dont know other options but with neteller the money will be in your neteller account quick as, from there you can use a virtual CC or get a neteller CC to use your funds which is what I do.

Definitely wont be able to get money in your bank account straight away like local books. Only negative of using offshore I guess.

[benrama]

Great thread guys.

Love the Judd not to win bet, I think the guy is highly overrated.

As for Pinny, I'm a long term user and it is a MUST have for long term sports betting. Odds on pretty much every sport are often 5-10c better than other books, this is a huge difference to your necessary winning % to be profitable.

I withdraw via wire, and money is in my account usually within 2 business days. You get one withdrawal free per month, after that is $20, but if that matters Pinnacle is probably not your book anyway.

Pinny is also the best book for tennis, by a long way.

I just hope they improve their NRL and AFL betting options in the future to include margin betting, 1st half lines and team totals.

[hawley]

No idea why i never set up the withdraw via wire, think because I used Neteller to deposit i just kept cranking that.

Kingsr get a Pinny account its the one offshore book you want.

[benrama]

wire is super easy Hawley - just need to get your banks swift code (google it) and the rest is simple. Never had to wait more than 3 business days for the funds.

Even for Aussie sport Pinnacle is usually the way to go, I often get $1.95 lines. For multi's you only get the $1.92, but you can often bet sequentially to get the better odds - I'm doing that this weekend.

[hawley]

wire is super easy Hawley - just need to get your banks swift code (google it) and the rest is simple. Never had to wait more than 3 business days for the funds.

Even for Aussie sport Pinnacle is usually the way to go, I often get $1.95 lines. For multi's you only get the $1.92, but you can often bet sequentially to get the better odds - I'm doing that this weekend.

I feel robbed everytime I use our TAB here because the lines are so bad compared to Pinny lines.

Often I see steam on MLB lines etc but when I go to bet it locally I dont even beat the Pinny closer because the lines are already so poor haha.

[kingsr]

Ok guys Im sold on Pinny! Who wants to refer me and get a bonus (if they have one?)

[benrama]

@hawley, so true, I've seen 20c type line differentials at times, especially on lines with clear favourites in MLB, some books get away with murder! A few arb opportunties have been there over the years, but I couldn't be assed spending the time finding and tracking them.

I still swear the first Aussie book to replicate the Pinny model will dominate the Aussie market - if I had a spare $10M or so lying around I'd set up the bloody thing myself.

@kingsr, nice gesture bro, but Pinny doesn't work like that - no referrals, no bonuses, nothing - people sign up with the book purely because it's the best - with daylight second. Get into it!

[donkson]

Yeah Judd at 1.57 is lol.

Swan had very similar hype last year, and Ablett in 08.

[donkson]

Although thinking about it I might just go with Pendlebury @ 7.75

Goodes polls ridiculously well as we all know, and he's Sydney's best player. But Bolton will get the 3s for their early wins, assuming that, Goodes faces a pretty damn hard job to overcome a player that played in a team that only lost 2 games. He shouldn't be 2nd fave.

[benrama]

I was looking at Pendlebury too, guy has been a superstar this year every time I've watched a Pies game, and due to the affliction of being surrounded by Pies supporters, I've watched ALOT.

[Lookingtostart]

Well... has anyone pulled the trigger?

[Lookingtostart]

Aussie Rules
AFL Brownlow Medal 2011
Most Team Votes

Selection 1:
Most Team Votes - Port Adelaide (All In)
3021. T. Boak 2.750
Risking 50.00 to Win 87.50 AUD


Selection 2:
Aussie Rules
AFL Brownlow Medal 2011
Most Team Votes
Most Team Votes - Port Adelaide (All In)
3024. Any Other Port Adelaide Player 5.750
Risking 50.00 to Win 237.50 AUD


Selection 3:
Aussie Rules
AFL Brownlow Medal 2011
Yes/No. Players To Win B. Medal
Will C. Judd Win Brownlow Medal?
2001. No 1.926
Risking 10.00 to Win 9.26 AUD

But... as you can see, I'm being careful on Judd not to win, I don't trust the umps, otherwise it would have been a larger bet.

I chose the Port team vote bets because I watched Port all year, I'm confident on "any other player". This is because of Trengrove, who shared the Port best and fairest with Boak.

[kingsr]

I remember last year, Swan was fav to win it and was leading. Judd polled 3 points in a game they LOST by 100 points! WTF?

If refs don't know they just give it to Judd

[kingsr]

That 'any other player' doesn't cover the rest of the team. It covers everyone but Boak, westhoff and Gray.

Most Team Votes - Port Adelaide (All In) 03:00 AM3021 T. Boak 2.750 3022 J. Westhoff 2.850 3023 R. Gray 4.500 3024 Any Other Port Adelaide Player 5.750

[Lookingtostart]

That 'any other player' doesn't cover the rest of the team. It covers everyone but Boak, westhoff and Gray.

...yes, I know.

As I mentioned, "any other player" covers Trengove. He is essentially $5.75.

[Aussports]

Like the Trengrove bet, was definitely one of their better players
I also like Boyd for a top 5 finish @ 2.10

[kingsr]

Pendlebury has been plonked....

[donkson]

Trengove won't win Port's votes.

I got Pendlebury @ 7.75 and Goodes @ 5.65 a few days ago, plus a bunch of h2hs and team votes.

Will make watching the count 0.01% more interesting.

gl peoples

[Aussports]

Taken a few bets just for laughs (1 unit overall)
0.1 West Coast Eagles - Most Votes – Dean Cox @ 2.45 – Most Votes - Team
0.2 Brownlow Medal Winner - 2011 – Scott Pendlebury @ 4.00 – Outright Winner
0.1 North Melbourne - Most Votes – Drew Petrie @ 21.00 – Most Votes - Team
0.1 Port Adelaide Power - Most Votes – Any Other Player Not Listed @ 16.00 – Most Votes - Team
0.5 Brownlow Medal - Top 5 – Matthew Boyd @ 2.20 – Top 5 Finish

[Gee]

I know its already started, but had a few bets on this too.

Pendlebury, swan e/w and the field vs judd. I don't like going big on brownlow. its a total crapshoot imo.

Now, does anyone have a stream for this? delayed in WA. may have to just turn the radio on. not even following it.