[astrobloke]

Hi,

This is the time of year I absolutely love. Finals fever is apon us and normally hits me the harderst. LOL.

I have to say every year at this time, I normally go all out and put in a big bet a team and a code where I think there is a good solid bet.

This year I have to go with the All Blacks winning the RWC tournament. Yes I put on $4000 as the outright winner at the end of October and got the odds @ $1.50 So if they do win, I will make 2k profit and 6k total back.

I have clearly seen that these guys are settling down now and quite strong. I think there will be a few changes but their players are dominating in all areas, and the crowd is getting right behind these guys...as they are playing at home.

I would expect them to win their pool obviously too, and I while I do not think they will have an easy time doing this, I do think they posses the right traits here early to do the job and to win. That means I will be betting them to win more of the games they play H2H also. Especially when it gets to quarter and semi finals time.

Putting in big bets like these over the years have done particularly well for, now while they do not work every year, they do hit many times. So I am hoping this one will do the same and the All Blacks can bring it home and win this whole rugby world cup tournament.

Now I could be very wrong about all this, and have stuffed up majorly with this bet and lose my $4000 in the coming weeks.... but for now I think I like where this bet stands and why I did what I did.

Good luck to me and wish much luck and success with your punting!

[kingsr]

I like it, it's something I'd do. I've made a mint making big bets 5k plus in similar spots. Good luck bro...I already have 2k on all blacks @1.70

[astrobloke]

Hey Nice Kingsr,

You are the real deal!!!

Well done champ!! and I should have got on earlier too. Your odds are quite good. I just wanted to do some more homework, and I spent this weekend doing so.

Good luck to you too brother!

[kingsr]

Thanks bro, I'm looking at qld next year to win origin series paying 1.90...if this NZ bet wins I might roll it onto that.

[astrobloke]

Thanks bro, I'm looking at qld next year to win origin series paying 1.90...if this NZ bet wins I might roll it onto that.

Kingsr,

Well win or lose, I still think we have a very good bet here, but we shall see how we go. I am expecting the kiwi's to have ups and downs, but come through at the and win. IF that happens, it will be Champane, lots of celebrating for us bloke!!! And something tells me these guys will bring it home for us. But we just see how we go from here I guess.

The QLD's are way too good for NSW at the moment...and you understand what I was talking about in the first thread of this post. That is a solid bet too mate. NSW have a team of schoolgirls at the moment, when will they step up and put together a magical side like QLD. I mean I hear them say every year "we will win it next year dont worry you silly queenslanders" But how many years have they been saying this same statement for and it never eventuates ....

[hawley]

You will have a decent chance to hedge this later in the tournament, either before the semi or in the final provided we dont choke.

[kingsr]

Yep and look at the qld stock coming through, you just have to see the bris side. Beale, reed, Maguire just to name a few!

[Beniphone]

Hedge $1.50 haha

I know one of these threads would pop up after ozzy looked like shit last night. Good bet tho, it will cash

NSW win the series next year btw

[RLF]

You realise you'll get a better price if you roll the winnings from the quarters to the final.

Don't be stupid.

[hawley]

Yep and look at the qld stock coming through, you just have to see the bris side. Beale, reed, Maguire just to name a few!

Beale is a kiwi and Reed a Pom

You will be getting pretty decent ML odds later in the tournament if you do want to somewhat hedge out.

[kingsr]

Reed and Beale still have a choice I believe, as to who they want to rep

[hawley]

Both have pledged havent they?

Beale was in NZ camp for anzac test and Reed just recently pledged with England, he is in their squad for 4 nations?

[Beniphone]

Even so, Look at the players they will be replacing, no thx

[kingsr]

Both have pledged havent they?

Beale was in NZ camp for anzac test and Reed just recently pledged with England, he is in their squad for 4 nations?

To be honest I'm not entirely sure...I remember reading an article regarding who they will choose to rep.

[hawley]

If you back NSW the problem is you are going against the best spine in footy, one that has had a ridiculous amount of success.

Take Lockyer out and put Cronk in and add to the Melbourne connection.

Next year should be even closer than this year, and dont forget it is NSW with two home games.

[kingsr]

One game is played in Melbourne! Mutual home ground which will favour qld imo

[hawley]

One game is played in Melbourne! Mutual home ground which will favour qld imo

Oh yea forgot about that.

Should be another beauty of series either way.

[IDunno89]

Beale has pledged to NZ. Unsure about Reed...

[hawley]

Reed pledged within the last few days.

[Duff85]

Am I the only one who thinks there is almost no chance that NZ starts shorter than $1.50 h2h against England, South Africa or Australia in the final?

[hawley]

Am I the only one who thinks there is almost no chance that NZ starts shorter than $1.50 h2h against England, South Africa or Australia in the final?

I understand your question but if all goes to script now don't we get a SA / Aus quarter then a NZ semi with the winner?

If NZ play England in the final I think they are shorter than $1.50

[donkson]

1. Those odds are terrible
2. Have you not seen what happened in the last 3 WCs?

gl though

[RLF]

Am I the only one who thinks there is almost no chance that NZ starts shorter than $1.50 h2h against England, South Africa or Australia in the final?

No you're not.

Anyone who beats on NZ <2.00 right now is a moron.

I grantee you will get better odds going the same stake through from the quarters to the final.

NZ will be playing Wales in the final.

[benrama]

Good luck with it mate, I've made big futures bets before but usually only at >2 odds.

Those All Blacks should win but they are the equivalent of England in the soccer world cup, always finding some way to lose - pressure from home crowd will be pretty intense.

If you bet $4K on New Zealand in the QF/SF/final I'm pretty sure you'd get more like 2:1 odds combined e.g. 1.15 x 1.25 x 1.35 = $1.94. The odds you get for the futures vs betting 3 times and compounding are usually pretty lousy, but either way it's a bet that should hit.

Good luck with it!

[astrobloke]

No you're not.

Anyone who beats on NZ <2.00 right now is a moron.

I grantee you will get better odds going the same stake through from the quarters to the final.

NZ will be playing Wales in the final.

a moron! ha ha ....errr there is no way to bet on the QF and SF, because we are not even there yet. LOL. sheesh!

[PickApprentice]

a moron! ha ha ....so how do you bet on the QF and SF, if we are not even there yet. LOL. sheesh!

Dude. You are tying up your capital. You could have easily invest the money in bank for like less than a money and earn some interest before placing the bet . Lol, every cents count.

With regards to the NZ bet, you all assuming that there would be no draws in the SF and QF. If there is a draw and you play game by game, then you would lose, whereas the outright bet would still be in.

One thing that I have as a rule for profitable long term betting is that you shouldn't go for odd that is less than 1 in outright market at such an early stage. You are doomed to fail in the long term.

[astrobloke]

Good luck with it mate, I've made big futures bets before but usually only at >2 odds.

Those All Blacks should win but they are the equivalent of England in the soccer world cup, always finding some way to lose - pressure from home crowd will be pretty intense.

If you bet $4K on New Zealand in the QF/SF/final I'm pretty sure you'd get more like 2:1 odds combined e.g. 1.15 x 1.25 x 1.35 = $1.94. The odds you get for the futures vs betting 3 times and compounding are usually pretty lousy, but either way it's a bet that should hit.

Good luck with it!

Thanks buddy!

Again it is too early and I think in a few weeks or so there will be multi bets or specials available. If i like some of them, will be taking them and also betting on individual game. As I posted above.

Right now, if the option was available i would bet on a multi. But too early, but a good reminder to keep checking for these as the weeks progress and I will get very very good odds yes.

I am really enjoying this RWC and gotta say, some of these games are fantastic to watch.

Even if I screw this bet up, and lose it...I do not really care really.... this has been fantastic to get in on the action!!!

[astrobloke]

Dude. You are tying up your capital. You could have easily invest the money in bank for like less than a money and earn some interest before placing the bet . Lol, every cents count.

With regards to the NZ bet, you all assuming that there would be no draws in the SF and QF. If there is a draw and you play game by game, then you would lose, whereas the outright bet would still be in.

4k is no where near my total capital.

[benrama]

With regards to the NZ bet, you all assuming that there would be no draws in the SF and QF. If there is a draw and you play game by game, then you would lose, whereas the outright bet would still be in.

That's a good point PA. I just checked the rules at Pinnacle and in the event of a draw, the ticket is basically cut in half and then paid out.

So if you went in for $4k on a $1.15 game, then you'd effectively then get back $2K x 1.15 = $2.3K for a loss of $1.7K.

What are the odds of a draw however? 1 in 20? I went back to the 1991 world cup and couldn't find any at finals stage.

If it is 1 in 20, then you simply modify your expected return accordingly.

Your adjusted return is given by:

19/20 x odds x bet - (bet - (bet/2 x odds))

So if the odds for the ABs for the finals are the following (and this is being very conservative):

QF: 1.15
SF: 1.25
F: 1.35

Then:

QF EV = 19/20 x 1.15 x $4K - ($4k - $4k/2*1.15) = $4,285

SF EV: $5,008

F EV: $6,341

And you're implied odds are $2,341/4,000 which is better than 1.5.

At this stage it's most likely the AB's will face Argentina in the quarter finals, South Africa/Australia in the semi finals, and then England/France in the final.

What are the likely odds in these matches? I'd suggest it's more like:

QF: 1.30
SF: 1.40
F: 1.40

In which case your EV by the final would be $8,421, and you have >2 odds even taking into account the draw.

[donkson]

a moron! ha ha ....errr there is no way to bet on the QF and SF, because we are not even there yet. LOL. sheesh!

.....................lol

[Baqu]

@astrobloke - are there odds NZ not to win ?

couse after what lot's of guys said... I think it's a value to play it if odds are arong 2.5

[kingsr]

@astrobloke - are there odds NZ not to win ?

couse after what lot's of guys said... I think it's a value to play it if odds are arong 2.5

What language is this?

[hawley]

@astrobloke - are there odds NZ not to win ?

couse after what lot's of guys said... I think it's a value to play it if odds are arong 2.5

All Blacks v Field - Field is paying $2.25

[astrobloke]

@astrobloke - are there odds NZ not to win ?

couse after what lot's of guys said... I think it's a value to play it if odds are arong 2.5

Lots of guys? you mean just you?

Looks like your lobotomy did not go to plan?

Shouldnt you be in school instead of trolling in threads around here.

[IDunno89]

What language is this?

Lmao classic...