[Gee]

Its strange having an AFL thread in PT.

I don't have a really strong feeling about any of these games.

I had a pretty good AFL year. Ended the tracked regular season about +60u 110-65. I haven't added last weeks posted plays to my sheet yet though.

My personal view is if you think finals are the time to go big, then you've got rocks in your head. Sure, there will be a few good spots in finals. I don't see this round as one of them (but I'm often wrong ). The lines are about right IMO. I'm on the Cats. The Hawks have always struggled against teams that are better than them and can do what they can do better than them. I really do like this match up man for man, as well as stylistically. Hawthorn get smothered. GL whatever you're on though. Its a great time of year

[donkson]

Wouldn't call the Kreuzer out huge, and he was never going to play.

My personal view is if you think finals are the time to go big, then you've got rocks in your head.

Basically this. Some props can be attractive though, but not a huge amount.

[ACoochy]

Its strange having an AFL thread in PT. I don't have a really strong feeling about any of these games. I had a pretty good AFL year. Ended the tracked regular season about +60u 110-65. I haven't added last weeks posted plays to my sheet yet though. My personal view is if you think finals are the time to go big, then you've got rocks in your head. Sure, there will be a few good spots in finals. I don't see this round as one of them (but I'm often wrong ). The lines are about right IMO. I'm on the Cats. The Hawks have always struggled against teams that are better than them and can do what they can do better than them. I really do like this match up man for man, as well as stylistically. Hawthorn get smothered. GL whatever you're on though. Its a great time of year

Nice Spreadsheet there Gee More pressure to post winners here in PT. A few thrive but alot cannot cope over long term....Have cats here as well...GL on ur plays and GL to everyone's plays...

[Bbr]

Its strange having an AFL thread in PT.

I don't have a really strong feeling about any of these games.

I had a pretty good AFL year. Ended the tracked regular season about +60u 110-65. I haven't added last weeks posted plays to my sheet yet though.

My personal view is if you think finals are the time to go big, then you've got rocks in your head. Sure, there will be a few good spots in finals. I don't see this round as one of them (but I'm often wrong ). The lines are about right IMO. I'm on the Cats. The Hawks have always struggled against teams that are better than them and can do what they can do better than them. I really do like this match up man for man, as well as stylistically. Hawthorn get smothered. GL whatever you're on though. Its a great time of year

Nice figures this season Gee. Going big in the finals is crazy indeed! I am just gonna place wagers like I have all season. Gl to you also!

[kingsr]

Good to see it's a little more amicable in here...

Agree swans game will be very tight low scoring affair, that's why I'm on saints +18.5.

[Bbr]

Good to see it's a little more amicable in here...

Agree swans game will be very tight low scoring affair, that's why I'm on saints +18.5.

You mean swans +18.5 =D Hope they release a low over/under total on game day.

[Lookingtostart]

I picked the Swans +17.5, but starting to feel uneasy about it because of who the umpires will be for that match: M.Vozzo and Ray Chamberlain (Saints should win by 50). Not good news, I'm thinking of hedging.

[brettels]

Good to see it's a little more amicable in here...

agreed!

I wish totals were brought out on thursdays for all games! Bookies scared?

[kingsr]

Oops yes swans +18.5

[donkson]

agreed! I wish totals were brought out on thursdays for all games! Bookies scared?

I think they do it due to weather.

[benrama]

I picked the Swans +17.5, but starting to feel uneasy about it because of who the umpires will be for that match: M.Vozzo and Ray Chamberlain (Saints should win by 50). Not good news, I'm thinking of hedging.

AFL is one of the cleanest sports in the world IMO - yes Umpires have their shockers but I think they are by and large a neglible factor. From what I've read, Swans were hard done by against Freo with Ray umpiring, but all teams can point to an umpire they don't like or think is biased against them - just check the Bigfooty forums this week.

I still think Swans +17.5 is the best value of the round in all codes this weekend, there is just such a compelling set of stats in favour of the Swans and match-up mismatches (in particular Mumford, Kennedy and Goodes). Saints have Dal Santo as a mis-match but he's still carrying a shoulder injury which I think is still bothering him.

There are good reasons to hedge out of a game, but I really don't think umpiring in the AFL should be one of them.

Edited to add: and I've just looked into the Freo game and Ray didn't give away most of the 8 penalties/50's that led to goals anyway. Probably not a bad idea though for Longmire to make a mention of it, so Ray has it in the back of his mind.

[Lookingtostart]

It's not the freo game that day, that worries me, it's the way they umpire "against" interstate teams, Vozzo's worse than Chamberlain. I don't have stats to back that up so I'll just say 'tis IMO and leave it at that

The match-ups do look good for Sydney, I didn't put a lot of money on it so I'll ride this out.

[Bbr]

It's not the freo game that day, that worries me, it's the way they umpire "against" interstate teams, Vozzo's worse than Chamberlain. I don't have stats to back that up so I'll just say 'tis IMO and leave it at that

The match-ups do look good for Sydney, I didn't put a lot of money on it so I'll ride this out.

GL

[Lookingtostart]

Cheers,
Good Luck to all! Don't go crazy.

[kingsr]

The rain is gonna favour Geelong in this one...Line now 7.5

[Domestic]

Glad I got Geelong early at -4.5
Confident on this one.

[ACoochy]

Glad I got Geelong early at -4.5 Confident on this one.

U could probably middle this now with PYOL and make a few %....

[Domestic]

U could probably middle this now with PYOL and make a few %....

Hmm yeah, good thought.

[Djstucky]

If acoochy suggest a play...it's a fukkn winner!!!

[ACoochy]

Hmm yeah, good thought.

Gonna w8 til 5 mins or so b4 bounce and do this exact thing. Got it at 5.5, middle it at (hopefully by bounce) 8.5 (so long as its a +EV play) and hope cats win by 6, 7 or 8 to double up Official play is Cats -5.5 though...GL

[kingsr]

Glad I got Geelong early at -4.5
Confident on this one.

Same I took it as soon as lines were released with centrebet.

[Bbr]

Been very busy at work guys! Can't wait to wath the game tonight. Go hawks!

[ACoochy]

Been very busy at work guys! Can't wait to wath the game tonight. Go hawks!

Got the Corn Chips and dip to the left, the remote and beers to my right. Only thing left is w8ing til the bounce

[Bbr]

I see the hawks line is moving up! Looks scary but I ain't phased. I still believe i have the right play here. GL all.

[TwoWays]

We got it Bbr. You like the Hawks. You like the Hawks. You like the Hawks. I hope you're wrong. But if you're right, I hope I'm right also, unless I'm right and you're wrong.

[Bbr]

We got it Bbr. You like the Hawks. You like the Hawks. You like the Hawks. I hope you're wrong. But if you're right, I hope I'm right also, unless I'm right and you're wrong.

All the best with your play TW.

[Bbr]

Anyone going to the game tonight? Check in if you are and give us an update of the atmosphere and what not.

[benrama]

Interesting that Pinnacle has kept the line at -6.5 (albeit juiced) while Centrebet has jumped to -8.5 - about what I thought it would end up just before the game. I'd wager that the biggest amount of $ is still going on Pinnacle, despite it offering so few betting options in AFL/league, so I think they feel the line they have is about right.

I think Hawks 1H would have been the play BBR, but most of my plays on Geelong are in a parlay, so let's hope they win by a few points and everyone's a winner baby!

[Bbr]

Interesting that Pinnacle has kept the line at -6.5 (albeit juiced) while Centrebet has jumped to -8.5 - about what I thought it would end up just before the game. I'd wager that the biggest amount of $ is still going on Pinnacle, despite it offering so few betting options in AFL/league, so I think they feel the line they have is about right.

I think Hawks 1H would have been the play BBR, but most of my plays on Geelong are in a parlay, so let's hope they win by a few points and everyone's a winner baby!

You took the words out of my mouth. I see most books holding the line at 6.5. It would be great if the hawks won but i wagered on the spread for a reason- So a cats win by a couple of points would suit us both. Enjoy the match and BOL

[donkson]

Pinnacle are generally slow to react on AFL lines, they almost never change their lines in the moments leading up to the start of the game.

[kingsr]

-8.5 now boys...can i see a 9.5 before kick!?

[Gee]

Centrebet also tend to overreact a lot. I think they must take a lot of square money.

They move a lot faster than all the aussie bookies, but aren't any sharper.

Someone from sportsbet.com.au was on TV and said that he thought the Hawks +6.5 were specials, which made me feel warm and fuzzy about my Cats pick.

[TwoWays]

lol, Gee. Love it when these analyst make predictions. Some idiot broadcaster pregame this past weekend of Canadian football picked Calgary (-8) favorites to win by 45 + and they lost by 28. I wonder what book he was working for?

[Bbr]

Wagers aside boys. Enjoy the game

[iceminers26]

anyone got a link... tried finding one on Jtv but no luck